Considering a change in strategy

[shadowman]

Roveer, you might want to look closely at your expected losses. Take one of your trips and analyze the games you played and number of hands. This will tell you your total investment.  I play dollar VP on a fairly high variance game (39). I play for 6-7 hours a trip and I take about twice the amount of money you specified. I've lost it all a few times and that is expected. I know that if I took half as much I would lose it all quite often. In my case I play about 4000 hands (slow machines). I invest around $20K. The game returns just over 98% not counting the RF so I "expect" to lose 2% of $20K (400) if I don't hit the RF. You can do the math for your own situation to determine a reasonable expectation.  So, take your games ER and determine what you should have won/lost on the game. It might turn out you are right in the ballpark.  

[roveer]

[QUOTE=roveer]  Luckily it's, for the most part, not my play.  Of course I'm always striving for better play, but that's practice on the trainers.
 

Yet, in in earlier post, you mentioned that your play is 93-95% accurate.  That's not really that good.




We all make the occasional error, but 93-95% represents a lot of misplays.  So, your play may be a factor.[/QUOTE]

 
I appreciate the criticism.  I hadn't really considered it that much as most of the errors seem to be in the minor category unless I just plain missed something (which I'm much more likely to do on the trainer than in the casino).
 
For comparison, where does the rest of the crowd stand on their preferred game?  Is it more like 98-100%? or something less?
 
There are a few pesky hands that for the life of me I can't seem to get a hold of.  When they come up I'm usually dumbfounded.  I've pretty much decided that I would have to live with that margin of error, but maybe not.  Maybe more work is needed.
 
I'm also thinking that my next outing might be a good test for no alcohol.  Would be very telling if that made a significant difference in my outcome.  Afterall, I could play first, than relax and have drinks later and then go to bed.

[onemoretry]

[
I appreciate the criticism.  I hadn't really considered it that much as most of the errors seem to be in the minor category unless I just plain missed something (which I'm much more likely to do on the trainer than in the casino).
 
I probably misinterpreted what you wrote.  I always look at my errors in terms of effect on total return, not simply the number of errors.  My comment related to effect on total return.
 
I would not, however, underestimate the negative affects of tiredness nor excessive alcoholic consumption on play accuracy.  And, you just don't really know how many errors you make, since there is no one to tell you - other than that ugly feeling you get every time you hit the draw button, and realize, too late, that you've missed a pair, or some other dumb mistake.
 
A friend of mine once said that if you catch yourself about to make a serious error, you've probably already made several of them.
 

[roveer]

In all of my reading and searching here on VP I've come to several conclusions about my play.  I consider this a good evolution for me a facing of some realities that I may have been unable to see during my casino visits.  It's one of the reasons that I came to VP ready to bear all.
 
If you've seen my pics (in stories), most of them have come on higher denom (50c & 1$) multi-line machines.  Based on my bankroll (which at times back then, be 1800-2000), I believe (and please chime in here), that I am playing denom's way above what I should be for my duration and BR.  I'd say I play 4-6 hours at a clip, possibly 7-8hrs on occasion.  Besides the rush that the higher denoms might give (and lots of great pictures), it often ends in a losing proposition due to lack of funds.  I'd also think I'd be just as happy sticking to my quarter denom if I were able to get a better outcome because my BR was more in-line.  But once you get a few hand pays, than the emotion starts to creep in and that's what I'm trying to put back in the box.
 
Would anyone like to take a shot at answering these bankroll questions:
 
Bankroll size if I wanted to play STP DDB for 4 hours at a 25c denomonation (60 coin per play)
 
Bankroll size if I wanted to play STP DDB for 4 hours at a 50c denomonation (double?)
 
Bankroll size playing Single line DDB at 50c per hand for 4 hours
 

[mightwin]

I would like to chime in with a question.  From your pictures Roveer - I see that you sometimes play $25-$30/hand.
 
I know from my experience - it's more exciting to see 3 or more hands at a time, but your investment is also going that much faster. 
 
Here's the question - would you consider playing one-line $5 ($25/hand) instead of $1 multi-hand?  I know I would have to be picked up off the floor if I hit one of the higher hands - can you imagine aces with a kicker on ddb - 2,000 coins x $5 = $10,000 win. 
 
Off topic, but I'm just nosy.
 
 

[roveer]

I would like to chime in with a question.  From your pictures Roveer - I see that you sometimes play $25-$30/hand.
 
I know from my experience - it's more exciting to see 3 or more hands at a time, but your investment is also going that much faster. 
 
Here's the question - would you consider playing one-line $5 ($25/hand) instead of $1 multi-hand?  I know I would have to be picked up off the floor if I hit one of the higher hands - can you imagine aces with a kicker on ddb - 2,000 coins x $5 = $10,000 win. 
 
Off topic, but I'm just nosy.
 
 
 Yes, I would fall off my chair!  But it would be a sweet ride down.  I find very little excitement in single line games and really only play them as a "sit at the bar warmup"  Sometimes only at 25c or possibly 50c or 1$.  I've had a few 4A's w/kicker while playing quarters or half dollers. My problem with that proposition is that I'm quickly coming to the conclusion that I'm playing games above my bankroll which may be one of the reasons I keep donking off all all my cash. Roveer

[Frank Kneeland]

So, to boil it all down.  I'm looking to mature my play beyond the flashy draw of STP and UX and hopefully improve my return even if it means stoping and taking home a lot less than I "think" I can.  Of course my current system seems to have me taking home very little even with lots of fancy pics and handpays.
 
Roveer
So you are wanting to improve your choice of game. Here's the thing, you should not be picking which game to play. In twenty two years of playing professionally I have never once played a particular game because I wanted to.I scout. I crunch the numbers on return, and I play the best thing I'm aware of.It's a dispassionate mathematical process with very little choice involved. To do better at VP you simply need to do your homework.~FK