Measuring Change

[backsider]

[QUOTE=backsider]
some people cant live with themselves if they cant think theyve convinced everyone else that they win and that their way of playing is the only way to play in order to win.
 Show me one single post on this forum of someone making such an argument. [/QUOTE]
 Dont have to, everyone can decipher it for themselves. Do you think Mr. X is going to come straight out and say "gosh darnit backsider and anyone else who needs convincing, if I say anything about me being a loser then who would ever believe any of the other stuff I serve up"? But have you ever noticed how whenever any kind of disagreement or the same old insinuations come up, the same group of 5 or 6 from the clikity clique become the gang who cant shoot straight? Why would that be, and why do all the others on this forum stay away when the silliness starts? My suggestion is that whenever someone, myself included, says something that doesnt sit right with the mainstream media here, just let it go. Ill start right now, but I bet the guy who has to have the last word cant do it!  

[Eduardo]

O....k... I'll just say, shadowman or new2vp have never tried to convince me or anyone else how they should play. In fact they would probably prefer you keep playing like crap because it might keep good pay tables around just a little longer.  What they have demonstrated time after time is an incredible amount of knowledge when it comes to the mathematics of the game. An incredible amount of knowledge is not something you have managed to demonstrate, so it isn't hard to pick a side. You have lost money and you admit to being a terrible player. So why not seek out some help from people who have demonstrated knowledge about the subject?

[Eduardo]

And again, sorry frank!

[Frank Kneeland]

No need to apologize as long as we can all pull out something useful from this discussion. I see a lot of problem defining and not much advice offering going on.There is an accusation on the table that Backsider is "guilty" of accepting information which reinforces his current beliefs, and is disregarding or refuting information that contradicts them. I'm surprised shadow didn't also condemn him for eating, breathing and sleeping. Congrats Shadow you have just chastised backsider for what is perhaps one of humanities most common defining qualities. Everyone does this. You do it. I do it. We all do it. It took years of study and takes constant continuing vigilance on my part to fight this trend even for a day.Anyway, if you missed my point, I was agreeing with you, but only in as much as I think nearly all people do this, not just him. People that don't have a bias for information that reinforces their current beliefs, would be some kind of abnormal abhorrent abomination (Triple AAA for short).So here's our big chance: If we know that our minds tend to dismiss contradictory evidence and accept only that which reinforces our current beliefs, how is anyone to know that what they believe is true.I would be most interested in Backsider's opinion on this. If we accept for a moment that you did have a bias, how on earth would you be able to detect it, or even know that it is there.After all, the information you are accepting could be true, and the infomation you are rejecting could be false...and all could be as it should be. Or it could be the other way around. How do you know???For that matter, how do any of us know???...???~FK

[Eduardo]

Thank you frank. An important factor here is not simply whether we have a previously held belief and accept or reject new information, but the nature and source of the information that we accept or reject. A common theme among conspiracy belivers, whether it is UFO's, obama's bith certifiate, 9/11 conspiricies, betting strategies or 5th card flipover/pattern claims is ignoring reputable sources in favor of minority claims, and when minority claims are proven false, belief is shifted to another minority claim. There are always enough minority claims for this person to never accept plain and simple facts and logic when presented with them. I believe this "skeptical" mind is prone to belief in many such theories if they are prone to one. On the other hand, you have someone who believes the "majority" or authority opionion, and may never deviate from it. We all know the minority can be right in many situations, so this too would be flawed. But it is not that simple. I think we as humans are capable in many situations of assessing the validity of a claim based on its source, the reasoning behind it,  and in connection with other evidence. A simple example:Someone flips a coin. It comes up heads 5 times in a row. You suspect the person has a two head coin. They say it has tails on the other side. You don't believe them. They give the coin to someone next to them and that person confirms the coin has tails on it. You think that person is in on the scam. But then they hand the coin to your friend to look at. Your friend says sorry, it has tails too. Now you either agree or call your friend a liar too. I guess some of us have better friends than others. Next someone from the US Mint walks by and certifies the coin as an official coin with both heads and tails on it and describes the odds of a coin landing heads five times, while unlikely, is quite possible. Some will not believe there is tails on it until they hold the coin in their own hand, or as a last resort say the coin was switched and after a strip search say they swallowed it. Others will say I have enough evidence from a reputable source to change my mind, and maybe it wasn't a scam after all.

[Frank Kneeland]

Ohh good post Eduardo! And I have a couple of things to add. The science of belief states that if one had come to the conclusion that the coin was biased and firmly believed that, they would not stop believing that, even if they were able to hold it in their hand and see that it did have tails on one side.They would flip it several times and if random chance caused the coin to still come up heads even slightly more than it came up tails (in a few flips) they would still walk away convinced that it was not a fair coin. Or they might instead convince themselves that it was the tossing process that was unfair.To change a well established belief they would need long term results that presented new or contradictory information and an emotional reason to alter their belief. Without some NEED to believe the coin was fair they would simply go with their first instinct and recuse themselves from further betting on the coin, just in case.In psychology this is know as a type 1 error. Seeing correlation where there isn't any. They are amazingly difficult to reverse once formed. And intelligence plays a factor. What factor? I'm glad you asked. It has been found that their is a direct correlation between IQ and the difficulty in reversing type 1 errors. It seems from the research that IQ is no insulation against making type 1 errors and that "smart" people are significantly better at rationalizing their beliefs. Therefore, people who believe themselves to be intelligent are also less likely to ever think themselves wrong.~FKP.S. You really should read the works of  Michael Shermer. He's done the definitive research on this subject.

[backsider]

O....k... I'll just say, shadowman or new2vp have never tried to convince me or anyone else how they should play. In fact they would probably prefer you keep playing like crap because it might keep good pay tables around just a little longer.  What they have demonstrated time after time is an incredible amount of knowledge when it comes to the mathematics of the game. An incredible amount of knowledge is not something you have managed to demonstrate, so it isn't hard to pick a side. You have lost money and you admit to being a terrible player. So why not seek out some help from people who have demonstrated knowledge about the subject?
 I dont dispute the incredible amount of knowledge they both have and how Im an admitedly bad player who would love to have an ambition to learn to be better. But it just isnt right to read through so much history here and see them at the forefront of always chastising, humiliating, slamming, and ganging up on anyone who doesnt either have 100% the same belief system they have or if they want to play like the person without a name plays.  Just look at how insinuating new2vp was when I brought my machine beliefs up recently. So what, but he meandered through over a dozen long one-track-minded posts with cunning insinuations after underhanded accusations about who I was either like or was in truth, followed by the stunning "Who Me......Whatdid I do?". Then shadowman followed suit by playing his word association gig like he does to everyone who he believes is the guy, as arcimedes on lva. Ive read these things for a long time and now that its hapening to me im saying something about it. Ive got nothing to do with paytables but I do sit a long time at the machines since im in a wheelchair. Im soon to be assigned up at Nellis so ill probably be helping out the casinos a little more often in the future, unless I can improve how I play.  

[backsider]

Frank, I dont know if im understanding this good or not but ill try. Are you talking about my belief about the machines? I suppose theres no real way to detect it. All im talking about is what my business sense says most owners would do in times of desperation like we have going on now. Its not beyond people to walk along or even step over the edge nevermind the consequences, when their making a living is at stake. What and who are we talking about here anyway, CASINO people? Are these the pillars of the business world? It just adds up in my mind to be like this, at least during these times.So here's our big chance: If we know that our minds tend to dismiss contradictory evidence and accept only that which reinforces our current beliefs, how is anyone to know that what they believe is true.I would be most interested in Backsider's opinion on this. If we accept for a moment that you did have a bias, how on earth would you be able to detect it, or even know that it is there.

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank, I dont know if im understanding this good or not but ill try. Are you talking about my belief about the machines? I suppose theres no real way to detect it. All im talking about is what my business sense says most owners would do in times of desperation like we have going on now. Its not beyond people to walk along or even step over the edge nevermind the consequences, when their making a living is at stake. What and who are we talking about here anyway, CASINO people? Are these the pillars of the business world? It just adds up in my mind to be like this, at least during these times.Well I wasn't really talking about any particular belief of yours. What you do or do not think about machines is of no concern to me. Others were suggesting that you tend to accept information that you agree with, and dismiss things that contradict your beliefs.First, I was pointing out that this is quite normal.Second, I was wondering how we all can overcome this particular human bias. It can lead to errors in judgment, ones I'd like to avoid. I'm not so sure of myself that I believe I have this problem completely licked.Obviously, one could simply doubt all things all the time regardless of whether they agree with us. But that would lead to paralysis from analysis. You have to believe in something sometime. Gosh, it's a complicated subject.~FK

[shadowman]

Second, I was wondering how we all can overcome this particular human bias. It can lead to errors in judgment, ones I'd like to avoid. I'm not so sure of myself that I believe I have this problem completely licked.

Obviously, one could simply doubt all things all the time regardless of whether they agree with us. But that would lead to paralysis from analysis. You have to believe in something sometime. Gosh, it's a complicated subject.

~FK

I like to follow "trust, but verify" as a general approach to this kind of problem. That's one reason I keep records of my VP play. In addition, it helps to try and obtain as much data as possible in areas that have more impact on our lives.
 
That is why I've read the compact that regulates Native American casinos where I live. That is why I've tried to understand how VP machine manufacturers operate. These "verifications" help to build the "trust" I mentioned earlier.
 
I then pass along that information on forums like this one when the topic arises. I always find it humorous when people passionately disagree but have done none of the work to really understand.