Video Poker Distributions are Not Normal

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=backsider] Frank you know I respect you, but youre sooo disconected with how regular players play that you now have to talk in riddles that make less and less sense. It almost looks like the competition with New2vp that he reeled you into has driven you straight into fantasyland.
 
But "lucky" you, Im here for the rescue!
 
Your dissing of the concept of luck: distribution this and probability that, what is it that compels you to stay so far away from reality on this that you cant get within a million miles of touch with it? You've minimalized every single event we face in life down to "oh well, it eventually had to happen because thats the way of the world, and luck (good or bad) had nothing to do with it"! Good Golly Miss Molly!! It makes me wonder if you have any enjoyment with ANYTHING in your life!, or is it all some kind of analysis that you run through your computer that Mr. Spock used to own?
 
With the past vs. the future point, you couldnt be more confused and wrong at the same time. There IS no future when were playing, only the present. Yes you can sit there and make all kinds of predictions based on math and expectation when youre on the forums, but when you finally sit down (aka, reality) and play then you are in the hands of nothing but luck. I think you like to dissect these things down to the gnats ass just because you can do it and the world will be impressed by it. That may be the case with New2vp who seems threatened by your ability to do that, but with the real crowd you just make no sense at all, and I say that in as good a way as possible. People like me arent as dumb as Ive joked about and as thick as you hint we are. In other words, you are not the end all and I respectfully believe you should try and put yourself into our world when making these outwordly posts.
 
Thank you, thank you very much.

I'm sorry you think that's what I'm saying. It isn't, but trying to say what I'm saying would require saying it again, and that's obviously not working.

I've been working in the field of professional video poker for over two decades and have put everything I say into actual use in the real world. I'm not talking theory, or conjecture, or  fantasy...and I'm still trying to figure out why you think I am.

It might help if you answered the direct questions I asked you, which you always seem to ignore and instead post around them without ever even acknowledging them. Why don't we start there, just answer the outstanding direct questions. I'll re-repost them in another post after this one.
[/QUOTE]
Maybe, guys, the "answer" is somewhere in between.
 
Frank/New2VP, I would think that you would have to admit that a big win, like an RF, is possible on any hand on any truly random VP machine. In fact, if enough hands are played through that machine, the "math" says that it WILL happen at some point.
 
Backsider, you will probably have to admit that those great sessions/games to not come along every time, in fact, maybe are a bit infrequent. So, you are 'lucky' to be in that place/time when the machine does what the math said it would do at some point - give you a big winner. 
 
Peace and love..  

[Frank Kneeland]

Maybe, guys, the "answer" is somewhere in between.
 
Frank/New2VP, I would think that you would have to admit that a big win, like an RF, is possible on any hand on any truly random VP machine. In fact, if enough hands are played through that machine, the "math" says that it WILL happen at some point.
 
Backsider, you will probably have to admit that those great sessions/games to not come along every time, in fact, maybe are a bit infrequent. So, you are 'lucky' to be in that place/time when the machine does what the math said it would do at some point - give you a big winner. 
 
Peace and love..  What concerns me is if people begin to expect the unlikely, rather than plan for the unexpected, they will make bad decisions. It's fine to plan for the unlikely, but we should still expect the expected. That is, after all, why it's expected, because it's the most likely.For instance: I'm not expecting anyone to understand what I just said. Surprise me!

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe]
Maybe, guys, the "answer" is somewhere in between.
 
Frank/New2VP, I would think that you would have to admit that a big win, like an RF, is possible on any hand on any truly random VP machine. In fact, if enough hands are played through that machine, the "math" says that it WILL happen at some point.
 
Backsider, you will probably have to admit that those great sessions/games to not come along every time, in fact, maybe are a bit infrequent. So, you are 'lucky' to be in that place/time when the machine does what the math said it would do at some point - give you a big winner. 
 
Peace and love..  

What concerns me is if people begin to expect the unlikely, rather than plan for the unexpected, they will make bad decisions. It's fine to plan for the unlikely, but we should still expect the expected. That is, after all, why it's expected, because it's the most likely.

For instance: I'm not expecting anyone to understand what I just said. Surprise me!
[/QUOTE]
 Actually, Frank, I do get it. That is why money management is so important when playing VP.

[backsider]

@Backsider Direct Questions in BOLD and numbered.I'm trying to figure out how you think, and to this end I need to know more about your decision making process and whether or not you can judge decisions without including results. Please try to answer these questions.Scenario A Someone offers you this deal: You can put a
revolver with 5 out 6 chambers loaded to your head and pull the trigger.
If you survive you get a million dollars.#1 Is that a good idea? #2 Should you take the bet?Scenario B You meet a guy that took the bet and survived and now has a million dollars and someone asks you, #3 "Do you think that taking that bet was good judgment on his part?"Obviously,
the bet is in the past and he survived. It came out all right. Oh, five
other guys died, but let's not worry about them they're dead and they
aren't talking. Do you think the lone survivor made a good choice back
BEFORE he knew how it would turn out?Certainly, if we include knowledge of the future(now the past)
in his decision one could think he made the right choice. But if we
remove the knowledge of his assured survival then taking a bet with a
83.33% chance of fatality is clearly NOT A GOOD IDEA.#4 So I ask you, can you separate the known past from the unknown future and stop judging your decisions by how they turned out?#5 Would you agree that in advance of making a decision and without knowledge of the future all we have to go on is the most likely outcome?#6 Considering the difference in our experience level playing real machines in real casinos, why do you think your personal hand sample is a "better" representation of reality than mine?#7 Do you understand that even though anything can happen once you sit down there is still a most likely outcome?P.S. I don't want to put you on the spot, so if you don't want to answer these question just say so and I'll drop the entire conversation.  If you want to continue talking then please answer them as a first step. But it's on you: we can drop it or continue, your choice.
 Ill give this a go. But Frank, if Ive missed some questions anywhere in the past please understand that I work a real job for a living that is productive and which will be providing for my retirement someday, and I dont always have time to spend all that time you do on these forums talking about an issue which has seemingly taken over your life and is only a small part of mine. 1. No2. No3. It still wasnt a good bet. But make it for other than the possibility of costing a life and it was a good bet at this point. Now I ask you, are you able to understand the difference between winning or losing at video poker and life or death scenrios?4. The only way you believe youre being logical is because youre associating video poker with something that is extraordinarily important, and it is not. You do that in every post you make as if its the tale of the world, and you somehow believe what you have to opine about it will save the world. Thats what I mean when I say you are not connected to the real world and real players. I believe its YOU who needs to back up some and review what youre doing. Just like your saying how youve played 25million hands or some crazy number like that. To me that spells "serious addict with a problem" but I dont think youd ever admit to that because youre always talking about the subject as if youre the analyst and the rest of us are your subjects. Its a good cover and I have some interesting analyses of my own that puts a high degree of probability to that statement.5. I agree on the most likely outcome scenario, but when a normal vp player goes at it he is not looking at that part of the event as having any importance at all. We all know that something or anything can happen when we play, and making a decision to be at a machine for an hour or two is never defined by "the most likely outcome".6. I look at every time I play as a real experience. You look at it as an extension of some theoretical experiment. The fact that youve played all those hands only tells me you cannot be living in the real world because youve wasted so much time away from the real world by doing so. 7. Yes, even though anything can happen there is still the likely but theoretical outcome to consider. I give more credence to the anything scenario because in the amount of time I put in at machines I cant ever remember the most likely scenario ever occuring. And finally, I know from reading this and other forums that you like to think of yourself as some kind of vp Messiah who has all the answers while occasionally being humble and always less mean than most. Its like you can solve everyones problems because you play on a team of some kind, and I look at that as nothing more than being hired for street cash by some hustler. But I dont buy what youre saying and I really think that if I were on your bandwagon Id have never sat at that poor paytable machine when I hit it. You would have cost me and my family $20k by me playing at a better paytable machine. At the same time you would have crowed about how it was a good decision because it was a better bet with a "likely better outcome" at which point if my wife understood all this she would have hit you over the head with her shoe.  You dont help everybody Frank, as good as your intentions may be. Why you are so vocal about all this I dont know, but I see issues.

[Frank Kneeland]

 Ill give this a go. But Frank, if Ive missed some questions anywhere in the past please understand that I work a real job for a living that is productive and which will be providing for my retirement someday, and I dont always have time to spend all that time you do on these forums talking about an issue which has seemingly taken over your life and is only a small part of mine. 1. No2. No3. It still wasnt a good bet. But make it for other than the possibility of costing a life and it was a good bet at this point. Now I ask you, are you able to understand the difference between winning or losing at video poker and life or death scenrios?4. The only way you believe youre being logical is because youre associating video poker with something that is extraordinarily important, and it is not. You do that in every post you make as if its the tale of the world, and you somehow believe what you have to opine about it will save the world. Thats what I mean when I say you are not connected to the real world and real players. I believe its YOU who needs to back up some and review what youre doing. Just like your saying how youve played 25million hands or some crazy number like that. To me that spells "serious addict with a problem" but I dont think youd ever admit to that because youre always talking about the subject as if youre the analyst and the rest of us are your subjects. Its a good cover and I have some interesting analyses of my own that puts a high degree of probability to that statement.5. I agree on the most likely outcome scenario, but when a normal vp player goes at it he is not looking at that part of the event as having any importance at all. We all know that something or anything can happen when we play, and making a decision to be at a machine for an hour or two is never defined by "the most likely outcome".6. I look at every time I play as a real experience. You look at it as an extension of some theoretical experiment. The fact that youve played all those hands only tells me you cannot be living in the real world because youve wasted so much time away from the real world by doing so. 7. Yes, even though anything can happen there is still the likely but theoretical outcome to consider. I give more credence to the anything scenario because in the amount of time I put in at machines I cant ever remember the most likely scenario ever occuring. And finally, I know from reading this and other forums that you like to think of yourself as some kind of vp Messiah who has all the answers while occasionally being humble and always less mean than most. Its like you can solve everyones problems because you play on a team of some kind, and I look at that as nothing more than being hired for street cash by some hustler. But I dont buy what youre saying and I really think that if I were on your bandwagon Id have never sat at that poor paytable machine when I hit it. You would have cost me and my family $20k by me playing at a better paytable machine. At the same time you would have crowed about how it was a good decision because it was a better bet with a "likely better outcome" at which point if my wife understood all this she would have hit you over the head with her shoe.  You dont help everybody Frank, as good as your intentions may be. Why you are so vocal about all this I dont know, but I see issues.This deserves a full reply, but it's late, I was out all night and a friend died today. I'm not really having a good day. I'll respond tomorrow, thanks for answering. ~FK

[New2vp]

This deserves a full reply, but it's late, I was out all night and a friend died today. I'm not really having a good day. I'll respond tomorrow, thanks for answering. ~FKVery sorry to hear about your loss, Frank.  There seems to be more than a fair share of such tragedies going on for forum regulars these days.I don't know if it was exactly correct when William Munny said it, but here it could not be more accurate on a couple different levels: "Deserve's got nothing to do with it."Edit:  billyjoe, I think Mr. Munny might be a better philosopher than Mr. Frost.

[BillyJoe]

I surrender !
 
I am done trying to be the arbiter with you guys.

[backsider]

Frank, Im so sorry for your loss, and theres really no need to reply anyway. I actually understand and agree with much of what you say, only it applies to players like you and not me. Put yourself into the shoes of someone who goes in to play 1-2 hours every 3 weeks and put aside what all those hours you play mean, then maybe youll understand how we go in expecting to lose whether its a + or - paytable because thats the nature of the beast. Wins then become nothing but luck.  Wasnt it nice to see New2vp come back and edit in his sympathies in front of his original post, after he first had to make his usual goofy remark? 

[royal flush]

all he is trying to do is get you to improve your total performance

[backsider]

all he is trying to do is get you to improve your total performance
 Oh I know he has the best of intentions, but then I have a question: Frank contiuously explains how he plays a whole lot different than most due to his team play/progressives attack. All Im asking is for him to walk (pun) a mile in a player like my shoes and hell easily see that 90% of what hes preaching doesnt matter or even come close to applying to me. He says theres no such thing as luck, and luck is all I can count on when I play. Someone who can say that is so far detached from the reality level I live at that he cant come close to seeing that fact. Ive run into others who claim there is no such thing as luck, and they are so out of touch. These people claim how everythings just a part of distribution or some other malarky, only to impress others with some outwordly intelligence of some type, because they know the real definition of luck applies all the time to all players.