9/6 JOB vs NSUD

[BobDancer]

I believe you're concentrating on the wrong thing.An accuracy rate of 97% should be enough to make you cancel your trip! There is information out there on both games (from several sources --- although I recommend the Dancer/Daily Winner's Guides for both games.) it only takes a few hours of study to get a whole lot better. At the stakes you're playing, 10 hours of study/practice will probably save you $200 on this trip alone! Not to mention you will remember some of what you learned for next trip and it will pay dividends there too.The people who quoted risk of ruin numbers in this thread were assuming you played perfectly. That's not a very good assumption for somebody who plays at 97% accuracy. It's not an easy calculation of how much your errors cost you (it depends on how big the errors are and how often they occur --- and even if you make the second-best decision or not) Still, it's a safe assumption that the more errors you make, the worse your EV will be.I do wish you luck --- but remind you that luck favors the well-prepared.Bob

[OTABILL]

I believe you're concentrating on the wrong thing.An accuracy rate of 97% should be enough to make you cancel your trip!


Why should he cancel his trip? I assume it is a vacation and like all of us he has a budget as to what he will spend on meals, hotels, entertainment, etc. Let's say his entertainment budget is $1000, what's the difference if he spends it on VP/gaming as opposed to shows, concerts, golf, skiing, helicopter trip over the canyon etc.? Note I use the word spend, not lose. In fact, VP/gaming is the only one of these activities where he can come out ahead monetarily. That would be a bonus. I respect your view but please understand that some of us have a different perspective/agenda when we are on a vacation or out for a night on the town.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=BobDancer] I believe you're concentrating on the wrong thing.An accuracy rate of 97% should be enough to make you cancel your trip!


Why should he cancel his trip? I assume it is a vacation and like all of us he has a budget as to what he will spend on meals, hotels, entertainment, etc. Let's say his entertainment budget is $1000, what's the difference if he spends it on VP/gaming as opposed to shows, concerts, golf, skiing, helicopter trip over the canyon etc.? Note I use the word spend, not lose. In fact, VP/gaming is the only one of these activities where he can come out ahead monetarily. That would be a bonus. I respect your view but please understand that some of us have a different perspective/agenda when we are on a vacation or out for a night on the town.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, but the "Dancer/Daily Winner's Guide" costs only $18.50. No guarantees, though, that it will make you a winner, I imagine.

[OTABILL]

[QUOTE=OTABILL] [QUOTE=BobDancer] I believe you're concentrating on the wrong thing.An accuracy rate of 97% should be enough to make you cancel your trip!


Why should he cancel his trip? I assume it is a vacation and like all of us he has a budget as to what he will spend on meals, hotels, entertainment, etc. Let's say his entertainment budget is $1000, what's the difference if he spends it on VP/gaming as opposed to shows, concerts, golf, skiing, helicopter trip over the canyon etc.? Note I use the word spend, not lose. In fact, VP/gaming is the only one of these activities where he can come out ahead monetarily. That would be a bonus. I respect your view but please understand that some of us have a different perspective/agenda when we are on a vacation or out for a night on the town.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, but the "Dancer/Daily Winner's Guide" costs only $18.50. No guarantees, though, that it will make you a winner, I imagine. [/QUOTE]

My wife and I have used the Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker software for a long time, in her case for at least a decade. We all want to do the best we can and hopefully come out ahead. My point is that we, like others, will play machines with not so great paytables because of location and entertainment choices. For example, your playing VP on the strip in Vegas rather than off-strip where you can get a better paytable.

[Vman96]

Yeah, but the "Dancer/Daily Winner's Guide" costs only $18.50. No guarantees, though, that it will make you a winner, I imagine.

Yeah, this or more practice with other tools before the trip may help obviously. But at some point it becomes not worth being completely perfect for some people.

Practicing VP tilts me for games I'm decent at already; mainly because I am usually a play money royal machine mostly thanks to this site. Most of the games I play I am at least 99.5% accurate by return, and usually 99.7%+. On JoB, I'm even better, I am 1199 of 1200 in correct plays on my videopoker.com app for 9/6 JoB with Double Super Times Pay (Bob lobby the South Point to offer THAT!!! ) and the mistake I did make was a penalty card scenario...bah

On games less familiar to me than JoB/Bonus or DDB, I read up on the strategy before playing. If I really unsure in the casino and want to play it right, I will sometimes cheat and look at my phone. I shouldn't do that though...it's "illegal"...blah blah blah

P.S. Writing that post made me want to play another 100 rounds of 9/6 JoB Double STP 5-play. No errors. Would have cost me over $65 if I was playing for nickels. But these are the sessions I like to see when playing for play money!   

[TXVP14]

I believe you're concentrating on the wrong thing.An accuracy rate of 97% should be enough to make you cancel your trip! There is information out there on both games (from several sources --- although I recommend the Dancer/Daily Winner's Guides for both games.) it only takes a few hours of study to get a whole lot better. At the stakes you're playing, 10 hours of study/practice will probably save you $200 on this trip alone! Not to mention you will remember some of what you learned for next trip and it will pay dividends there too.The people who quoted risk of ruin numbers in this thread were assuming you played perfectly. That's not a very good assumption for somebody who plays at 97% accuracy. It's not an easy calculation of how much your errors cost you (it depends on how big the errors are and how often they occur --- and even if you make the second-best decision or not) Still, it's a safe assumption that the more errors you make, the worse your EV will be.I do wish you luck --- but remind you that luck favors the well-prepared.Bob



I appreciate the feedback and respect your opinion. Practicing and reading up has made me become more accurate in my play. Generally, the mistakes I make are 2nd best decisions or rarely I just miss the best play (ie, I hold a suited J-K and don't notice a pair in JOB). However, I just don't think its practical to expect 100% accuracy over every playing session. For me, 98-99% accuracy with minor errors is a respectable level of play, and much better EV than other alternatives in the casino. I'd be satisfied with that level of accuracy, free drinks, and future comps. I'm sure there will be sessions where accuracy rate is lower and I'll come out ahead just as there will be sessions where I make next to no mistakes and lose my bankroll just because of the way VP goes.

[Vman96]

I appreciate the feedback and respect your opinion. Practicing and reading up has made me become more accurate in my play. Generally, the mistakes I make are 2nd best decisions or rarely I just miss the best play (ie, I hold a suited J-K and don't notice a pair in JOB). However, I just don't think its practical to expect 100% accuracy over every playing session. For me, 98-99% accuracy with minor errors is a respectable level of play, and much better EV than other alternatives in the casino. I'd be satisfied with that level of accuracy, free drinks, and future comps.

Right. If you find a trainer that tells you the cost of your errors compared to optimal, that's a better judge of accuracy in the first place. If a 98% accurate player in play makes all "minor errors" or "2nd best decisions", that might cost a quarter player the value of a "comp beer" an hour, as his/her actual return is well over 99% of optimal return. It really depends on the types of errors made. Unfortunately, playing on videopoker.com doesn't analyze errors by loss of return, I think.

[Vman96]

I appreciate the feedback and respect your opinion. Practicing and reading up has made me become more accurate in my play. Generally, the mistakes I make are 2nd best decisions or rarely I just miss the best play (ie, I hold a suited J-K and don't notice a pair in JOB). However, I just don't think its practical to expect 100% accuracy over every playing session. For me, 98-99% accuracy with minor errors is a respectable level of play, and much better EV than other alternatives in the casino. I'd be satisfied with that level of accuracy, free drinks, and future comps.

Right. If you find a trainer that tells you the cost of your errors compared to optimal, that's a better judge of accuracy in the first place. If a 98% accurate player in play makes all "minor errors" or "2nd best decisions", that might cost a quarter player the value of a "comp beer" an hour, as his/her actual return is well over 99% of optimal return. It really depends on the types of errors made. Unfortunately, playing on videopoker.com doesn't analyze errors by loss of return, I think.

But Bob is right, the numbers I gave you assumed perfection. If I would give you an average 0.5% error rate by return for JoB (not unreasonable for a not well-studied player) the RoR for game increases from 20.83% to 23.56% for 1500 hands with $150 at quarters.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=TXVP14]

If a 98% accurate player in play makes all "minor errors" or "2nd best decisions", that might cost a quarter player the value of a "comp beer" an hour, as his/her actual return is well over 99% of optimal return. [/QUOTE]
That's why I drink Makers Mark Bourbon in the casino. It costs more than beer, so I can make more VP errors and still make out OK.
Then again, if you ever see me playing JOB in a casino, and it's not on some outrageous progressive bank, please shoot me and put me out of my miserable boredom..

[olds442jetaway]

Sounds good to me. Think I'll try one the next time I stay over at Mohegan. For that matter, I'll try one and a beer. That way I can even go down to 96% or so and still be a " winner " whatever that means.... .........