Frequency and value of multiplier on STP

[Vman96]

This is a real good example of random statistics, Webman. Humans are generally terrible at intuitively understanding randomness. Even I'm pretty bad at it myself.

And ColorMeOld, hats off to you for collecting all that! Now run better to pull that average up!

[roveer]

A few more turned out better:Most hands between multipliers: 169 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)Average freq: 15.198Average multiplier: 4.104Most hands between multipliers: 115Average freq: 14.911Average multiplier: 4.119Most hands between multipliers: 126Average freq: 14.994Average multiplier: 4.171I then ran it for 1 million multipliers and got:Most hands between multipliers: 243 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)Average freq: 15.026129Average multiplier: 4.051538Most hands between multipliers: 205Average freq: 15.002599Average multiplier: 4.051385Most hands between multipliers: 193Average freq: 14.976327Average multiplier: 4.049025This game can appear really "unfair" to a lot of people, while averaging out just fine and requiring no manipulation at all. Then of course there are the lucky ones, too.Whoever got that 243 hands without a multiplier is going to be bitter and think something is wrong. I can certainly understand that! But it still was not an indicator of an unfair game in this case.


Randomly Random... It's beyond our human conciseness to track true randomness.

I also believe the OP posted "Nice game with rules promising multiplier showing up once every 15 hands or so and average value around 4".

Unless this was a special game set up on a very special set of special rules I think you are mistaken.

The rules as I know them for STP is approx 1 in 15 (statistically), not "showing up once every 15 hands".
From the picture below "The multiplier appears RANDOMLY on the initial deal an AVERAGE of 1 in 15 games. Much different than what you wrote.



As webman has shown us, you can go literally hundreds of deals between multipliers and it is all perfectly normal. You can also get 4 multipliers in a row, again perfectly normal. (lived it all).

Roveer