Short Coin Opportunities...

[notes1]

my post in no way was to disparage olds or his system. olds, faa and alpax are among the nicest folks on this site.   my post was directed to the poster who has taken every opportunity to criticize any mention i have made that the machines may not all be 100% random. how can he feel this system is worth considering, if the machines are indeed random. you can not argue both ways. i still await his answer.  i have NEVER  faulted anyone's system, game they play, odds they play, amount, duration or casino they play. it is their money, it is none of my business. how can i find fault, i do not believe every machine in every casino is random.  but, let's be honest, anyone who believes in a system that is based on increasing or reducing your bet, based on the previous hand, cannot really believe the machines are totally random.  

[FAA]

anyone who believes in a system that is based on increasing or reducing
your bet, based on the previous hand, cannot really believe the machines
are totally random. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Notes, thanks for the kind words. We're all just trying to conserve bankroll in a negative expectation environment. I can do 100% min coin, but neither fun nor profitable. 100% max coin lands me riding the bench and reading the paper in record time. So you have to find a happy medium.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]Whoa. I should have added the wink icon[/quote]  

[case]

my post in no way was to disparage olds or his system. olds, faa and alpax are among the nicest folks on this site.   my post was directed to the poster who has taken every opportunity to criticize any mention i have made that the machines may not all be 100% random. how can he feel this system is worth considering, if the machines are indeed random. you can not argue both ways. i still await his answer.  i have NEVER  faulted anyone's system, game they play, odds they play, amount, duration or casino they play. it is their money, it is none of my business. how can i find fault, i do not believe every machine in every casino is random.  but, let's be honest, anyone who believes in a system that is based on increasing or reducing your bet, based on the previous hand, cannot really believe the machines are totally random.  I guess you are still trying to start an argument with me then.  Well Notes the system you are taking issue with is not mine. It is Florida Phils and Olds.  I don't play either system  myself but I was just being supportive of these other guys. They can play any system they want and more power to them. Because I don't use it I can still understand what they are doing and why. They are both just trying to make their money last and have fun.Of course machines are random and both Phil and Olds would agree. You are confusing things with not being random as a way to play less money and have fun. Give these guys credit for being intuitive.

[notes1]

anyone who believes in a system that is based on increasing or reducing
your bet, based on the previous hand, cannot really believe the machines
are totally random. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Notes, thanks for the kind words. We're all just trying to conserve bankroll in a negative expectation environment. I can do 100% min coin, but neither fun nor profitable. 100% max coin lands me riding the bench and reading the paper in record time. So you have to find a happy medium.


 i meant what i said, you are among the more pleasant posters and give full details of your play. i completely understand trying to minimize losses, i am in the same camp. the system that is being discussed clearly states that after a win, one would lower their bet and the reverse, if one has a losing hand. the only logical conclusion is that those who play this way, feel that the previous hand is an indicator of a future hand. i do not fault anyone for believing this way. but, one cannot believe the machines are 100% random and still claim this is a system worth considering.

[notes1]

your statement, 'shows you guys are thinking and not just pounding the buttons'. this statement is a clear implication that this system has some merit. why would anyone who believes the machines are random suggest that a system that states the amount of your bet, would be dependent upon the previous hand? 

[case]

You did not read my last sentence"Of course machines are random and both Phil and Olds would agree. You
are confusing things with not being random as a way to play less money
and have fun. Give these guys credit for being intuitive."

[olds442jetaway]

I'll see if I can answer a couple of questions. First, I'll accept for now that the machines are random although sometimes I wonder if they really are. The reason I like to play the reverse progression or Martingale Clone as I call it is I need a fewer number of wins to be even or better compared to flat betting.
     The other question I think will answer itself in the example below. In flat betting, if I lose eight consecutive hands and hit a full house on the ninth hand, I will be even. Let's assume that was done losing 1 coin at a time for 8 hands not counting pushes at all. You are now at minus 8 quarters.
    The martingale clone would work this way....I have left out the pushes or money back bets since I don't count them at all. First bet and second bet would be 1 quarter. The third and fourth bets would be 2 quarters. The 5th and 6th bets would be 3 quarters each and the 7th and 8th bets would be 4 quarters each. I have now lost 20 quarters.
     In the flat betting example, if I hit a full house on the next hand, I will be even.
     In the Martingale Clone method, on the next hand I would hit the full house at 5 quarters bet which would pay me 45 quarters but I had only lost 20 up to this point. The full house hit netted me 40 quarters to apply to the loss of 20 so I at that point would be up 20 quarters instead of being even on the flat betting system.
     Like Phil's method you have the chance of a big hit. The major difference is that in Phil's, his bets go up after a decent win and mine go up after a series of losses of 2 or more.
     Phil's method risks less capital. You have the chance of being wiped out with my method if the machine is ice cold. On the other hand, if you are not greedy, you can make a decent profit with a fewer number of wins than losses. I will say one thing. Both methods keep the mind working and boredom is not an issue at all.

     I am editing to add a more dramatic example. Using the example above, I hit a quad on the 9th bet paying me 125 quarters since I was betting 5. I would be ahead 100 quarters at that point playing the Martingale Clone. If I had hit the quad on the 9th bet after 8 flat betting losses, I would only be ahead 16 quarters.
     One might ask, why do many of my posts talk about losing sessions or being out lots of money at the end of the year. It all comes down to one thing. Actually two. One is discipline and knowing when to quit while you are ahead a decent amount and the other is liking to play the game too much. Playing this way, I think I have been ahead in all of my sessions at some point in the session this year. I have never lost 50 consecutive hands in job and I don't know anyone who has. If I do, that is when I walk away for the day. What can and does happen though once in awhile is you hit lots of 2 pairs and not much more. You tread water for quite a while, but if you don't start hitting some flushes, full houses, and a quad or two at some point, you will be a loser for the day
     Finally, I don't use this method with DDB. The 2 pair penalty is just too much to overcome. If a quad doesn't come along playing DDB in a fairly short time, I am done for the day.
     By the way, if playing the above Martingale Clone method takes my bets all the way up to 25 quarters and I still don't hit after two bets at 25, the most I would be out will be quite a bit less than two hundred bucks or around a buck sixty I think. I'm not saying that is great, but it is a loss that I can manage for the day.

[FAA]

Not a bad system Olds. How damn cold could a machine be? You have to rebound at some point. And you are well positioned to recoup most or all previous losses. I do a bit of that myself. As long as you're not max coining away like there's no tomorrow you have the gist. This does not preclude belief in randomness. That said, I do maintain that some casinos are more random than others.

[olds442jetaway]

Picked up thirty bucks today playing 9/6 job short coin with the clone system which was quadless for 5 straight hours. A couple of full houses with about 12 quarters or so bet bailed me out. Unfortunately, on the way out I walked by one of my favorite few and far between Double Down Stud machines. It was busy and I said to myself good as I headed for the coffee shop. Then out of the corner of my eye, I see the player get up and leave. Gave it a shot with the thirty, but no dice. The only game I play on that machine is Deuces Wild. A dealt Royal with 5 in gets you 5k. Before the thirty disappeared, I was dealt 4 to the Royal in Spades. I needed a ten on the last card. When it turned over, it was the 9 of spades. Ouch!!!!!.