simple question for rolan

[rolanddude]

Shadowman...Why are you so hell-bent on mischaracterizing everything to make it fit your flawed view of things...your flawed rehash of my "fractions of a penny" statement for instance.  You TOTALLY put words in my mouth and called me a liar...Now you justify it by saying my hero does it... Well another hero of mine is Jesus Christ and he walked everywhere or rode donkeys.  That doesn't mean that I am going to sell my car.  Are you finding it difficult to debate me?  I'm sure having a tough time doing so with you.  You are throwing sh*t out there that I never said and call me a liar for saying it...What the f...!!!
...  By approaching your VP sessions as INDIVIDUAL games you do what you can to WIN that game.  We don't crown champions based upon how many points they score over a long period of time, we crown champions based on how many games they win in a defined season. "Short Term"
 
You say that I avoided your questioning me on the baseball analogy.  Your ass-ertion that anyone with a brain would choose more runs is not even relevent to this argument.  It's WINS that matter not points/runs scored.  You are correct in saying that YOU did not mention wins or losses...  hmmmm  Why not?  After all, my analogy was about the falacy of thinking that more runs=more wins.  You cannot argue this unless you duck, dodge, evade, put words in my mouth, and live up to your NEW NICKNAME...  Shady Man.
 
So Shady Man, are you saying that you played through $3.7 million and won over $64,000 with your DB+ play.  Did you count in the price of the cream they gave you for your coffee... It might have brought your "winnings" up a tick or two.  So is this how much you won REALLY or what your winnings should have been around somewhere close "according to the math" (La La Land).  Oh, and Shady Man, I bet the casinos will ALL change JUST BECAUSE OF YOU!!!  You've got them on the run.  You'd better lighten up on them...Shady!!!!   

[Eduardo]

It sure is amazing how many times you have replied in this topic rolan without answering the simple question.


 
Here it is again for you:
Will 500 people playing the same way you do take more money or less money from the casino than an individual playing perfect strategy the same total number of hands as all 500 of them combined?

[rolanddude]

What do you not understand about my answers?  Hello, can you hear me?  Did I not fall for your "baited" question?  ...from page 1
  
In closing, I want to point out to Eduardo and the rest of the forum that to try to compare one type of play with the other by asking "Who will be ahead after 500 hands?"or "Which is better 500 people playing short term or 1 AP player?" is both misguided and impossible to answer for the following reasons.  When playing "STS" you change denominations at self determined/preset intervals depending upon how many credits you are down...You have a session bankroll that you will NOT violate when you occasionally reach your "stop-loss" point.  Therefore, you may or may not play 500 hands before your win goal or your stop-loss is attained.  If you win your session then most of the time you are ahead of AP because you hit your 4oak on a higher denom(if 4oak is hit on starting denomination you will both obviously be the same or fractionally different depending upon how many non-optimal plays were hit or not hit).  
from page two...
So Eduardo... In these sessions playing identical hands... STS wins over AP.  The only advantage to playing AP strategy is for the purposes Boops mentioned.  You get to play longer.  If both players would have bad luck then it just would take less time (shadow) for the STS player to be done and go home.  If both have good luck then the STS player will win more money if he is on any other denom than his baseline.  SIMPLE MATH!!!  from page 3 . . . If the AP player played the IDENTICAL same hands as the 500 short termers then he WOULD win less because of betting less per hand!!  You are right that you will get to play longer... and "might" win... but chances are that unless you hit a biggie like a RF or A w/kicker you will not win anything and probably will not come back up to close to even... in other words an exercise in futility.  By the time my $900 is used I have lost at least 750 credits... it would take 4oak Aces within the next 50 credits lost to just get back to even...!
  from page 4...
In summary...  EDUARDO (congrats on your last trips btw), for you to try to bait me into philisophical arguments such as the "bet more-win more" crap or any other traps that most here can't think through logically is bs and is worthless.  The TRUTH is that IF you are lucky you will win with AP in the short term. (maybe 10 to 20% of your sessions)  Another TRUTH is that IF you are lucky you will go many, many sessions without a loss with STS and win much more $ than you will lose with an occasional bad session.  (you have around an 80% chance of winning your session using STS) 
   What do you not understand about my answers?  I have answered your question and elaborated as to why I answered the way I did.  Comprehende?

[shadowman]

Shadowman...Why are you so hell-bent on mischaracterizing everything to make it fit your flawed view of things...your flawed rehash of my "fractions of a penny" statement for instance.  You TOTALLY put words in my mouth and called me a liar...Now you justify it by saying my hero does it... Well another hero of mine is Jesus Christ and he walked everywhere or rode donkeys.  That doesn't mean that I am going to sell my car.  Are you finding it difficult to debate me?  I'm sure having a tough time doing so with you.  You are throwing sh*t out there that I never said and call me a liar for saying it...What the f...!!!
 
I'm sorry if your "fractions of a penny" was a lie. You stated it so live with it. I've even shown your exact example of two pair vs. a high pair was orders of magnitude larger than fractions of a penny. If you don't want to be be called a liar, I'd suggest you quit lying.
 
  
You say that I avoided your questioning me on the baseball analogy.  Your ass-ertion that anyone with a brain would choose more runs is not even relevent to this argument.  It's WINS that matter not points/runs scored.  You are correct in saying that YOU did not mention wins or losses...  hmmmm  Why not?  After all, my analogy was about the falacy of thinking that more runs=more wins.  You cannot argue this unless you duck, dodge, evade, put words in my mouth, and live up to your NEW NICKNAME...  Shady Man.
 
Your baseball analogy is what is called a red herring. It is not relevant to VP. In baseball if you win one game by one run and lose another by 10 runs you are 1-1 or even. In video poker if you win $100 one time and lose $1000 the next you are behind by $900. You are NOT even. If you don't understand this then it's no wonder you didn't understand that scoring runs is a much better analogy. So, tell me again RD how winning more sessions but losing more money is a good thing.
 
  So Shady Man, are you saying that you played through $3.7 million and won over $64,000 with your DB+ play.  Did you count in the price of the cream they gave you for your coffee... It might have brought your "winnings" up a tick or two.  So is this how much you won REALLY or what your winnings should have been around somewhere close "according to the math" (La La Land).  Oh, and Shady Man, I bet the casinos will ALL change JUST BECAUSE OF YOU!!!  You've got them on the run.  You'd better lighten up on them...Shady!!!!   


 
Another attempt to deflect after I've shown your argument is silly. It was your numbers and I just demonstrated the CASH value of casino extras. You can whine all you want but the numbers I gave were real numbers from a real casino. No, I didn't win $64K because they downgraded the machines long before I could play through $3.7 million (I did win over $5K in the small time period it was available). It's by looking at all the ways a casino rewards you that you can profit from playing VP. Using silly plays that lose you money over and over again is not the way to win. And, yes, you have to be brain dead not to understand this.

[ruddy]

All scam/con men like him talk in circles.

[shadowman]

Now, back to RDs claim that playing a STS will take less time. If you are playing a 5 level progression starting at a quarter (.25, .50, 1, 2, 4) then your average bet will be less than a dollar players' even though the median bet is exactly one dollar. This is due to the fact you may restart several times at .25 and never make it to $4. So, let's say the average denomination is .75. If I play a standard non-progression at the dollar level I will put more money through the machines faster. So, if you end up losing in both cases and start with the same bankroll, the dollar player who never changes his bet will lose faster. It doesn't get any simpler than this.
 
In the same vien, if I choose a win goal of say $1000 and hit a good sized win early in my play (say aces w/kicker) then I'm more likely to leave early using a single dollar denomination since I'd win $2000 vs. $500. You would need to hit the big winner later in a session for a progressive system to win faster. So, no advantage in time either way.
 
Once again we see that either you are intentionally lying or you don't understand simple mathematics. Which is it?

[Eduardo]

I think he does not understand. That is a lot of words to fail to answer a simple question.
 

Will 500 people playing the same way you do take more money or less money from the casino than an individual playing perfect strategy the same total number of hands as all 500 of those players combined?
 
Let's see... here is one possible answer: "More." Here is another possible answer: "Less." Here is another possible answer: "Sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less."
 
It's hard, I know. But when you actually have an answer, I can give you an equally simple response to let you know whether your answer is right or wrong. It's a pretty simple concept once you get it. But first I need a straight answer, not all that spin.
 
Will 500 people playing the same way you do take more money or less money from the casino than an individual playing perfect strategy the same total number of hands as all 500 of those players combined?

[New2vp]

Will 500 people [Players B1 thru B500] playing the same way you do take more money or less money from the casino than an individual [Player A] playing perfect strategy the same total number of hands as all 500 of them combined?Eduardo, let me try this.I'll go with generally "less", but sometimes "more".  Below, I show my work.It doesn't really seem like a question that is too hard to answer unless one would rather not answer it because it sheds more light on the subject than the pusher of an invalid theory wants to see.  It is not a "trick" question or "baited" question.  The only hard part is nailing down what is meant by "playing the same way [rolan does]".What is clear is that to the extent that Players B1 thru B500 deviate from perfect strategy, their combined Expected Value will be less than Player A's Expected Value.  Unless r-dude wants to give up the "special plays" part of the strategy, the following is inescapable:If the average bet sizes are equal and the play is on a negative-play game situation, Player A's average dollars lost will be less than the combined average dollars lost by the B players.  If the average bet sizes are equal and the play is on a positive-play game situation, Player A's
average dollars won will be more than the combined average dollars won by the B players.(1) If Player A's average bet size is more than the average bet size of the B players, the expected dollars won by Player A on a positive-play will be even greater.  (2) If Player A's average bet size is less than the average bet size of the B
players, the expected dollars won by Player A on a positive-play may be less, but the percentage of dollars won by Player A relative to the bet size will on average still be greater. (3) If Player A's average bet size is less than
the average bet size of the B
players, the expected dollars lost by Player A on a negative-play will be even lower.  (4) If Player A's average bet size is more than
the average bet size of the B players, the expected dollars lost by
Player A on a negative-play may be greater, but the percentage of dollars lost relative to the bet size will on average still be lower.Eduardo, your question was about actual dollars won or lost rather than expected dollars won or lost, so one cannot be certain in every example that the relationships above will occur.  Something out of the ordinary might happen once in a while  (Interestingly and not surprisingly, substantially all of r-dude's examples will contain this non-typical relationship). But the beauty of your question, as you of course realized, is your inclusion of the number 500.What math and statistics tells us about random numbers is that as the number of occurrences gets larger and larger, the actual values get closer and closer to expected values.  R-dude and his hero like to try to mock this fact by saying one must "play to infinity" to see this occur, but the math simply says that actual results will approach expected results as the number sampled increases.If there was only one B player, we might see different results more often when comparing actual and expected.  But when we have 500 B players and one A player, playing perfect strategy the same total number of hands as all
500 combined, the smart money is ALWAYS on the A player.NOT A HARD QUESTION TO ANSWER...UNLESS YOU DON'T LIKE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE ANSWER.Sidenote:  R-dude says that the A-player cannot always play his strategy perfectly.  Certainly that is true, no one can play perfectly all the time.  However, it must also be that the B-players, who play a more complicated strategy, must also make mistakes.  As shadowman pointed out earlier, in addition to the mistakes the B-players make unintentionally, they try to make even more mistakes on purpose.  That's not good for expected value and therefore, as the amount of play increases it cannot be good for actual values either.If you have more fun playing this way, go ahead and enjoy it.  Just try to do it without calling others names because they play differently or smarter than you do.

[rolanddude]

Shady Man...
You are at it again...
If an AP player is playing @ a $1 machine... Then to make a comparison to STS you must start your progression @ the $1 machine... none of this average bet/hypothetical slice and dice stuff.  For example your progression would be $1, $2, $5, $10, $25...
 
As to the baseball analogy... again you take a totally valid, true example and twist it to suit your argument...  The example was to illustrate why playing to play more hands in VP does not equal more winning sessions...thus the "Runs vs. Wins" analogy.  You turn it upside down and create a red herring.  
 
My example of holding a high pair in DDB was twisted by you to show somehow a $30+ loss and some other ranting about EV...  It is easy for you to live and trust in theoretical/hypothetical/expected results that take an indeterminate amount of TIME to acheive.  As to my example... It cost just over 1    coin hypothetically... In REALITY you LOSE nothing.  The worst result possible is breaking even.  I take that "hypothetical 1 COIN" chance that I will get to quit my session by pressing the draw button and getting 4oak.  It happens often.
 
You keep saying I'm lying... pretty strong accusations coming from you.  Sorry Shady Man that you don't quite understand these arguments and methods enough to do nothing but twist and mischaracterize these methods of play to make you look superior... I presume unintentionally of course.  Does make me laugh out loud though...especially when you had to admit that you didn't win the $60K+ but said you would've if you'd had the time....LMAO!!  My gut tells me that IF you won anything at all you probably have given it back by now...  Have a nice day.  I am off to speak at a technology conference in Gainsville.

[cddenver]

If an AP player is playing @ a $1 machine... Then to make a comparison to STS you must start your progression @ the $1 machine... none of this average bet/hypothetical slice and dice stuff.  For example your progression would be $1, $2, $5, $10, $25...
 
Why "must" an AP player play a progression for bottom-line dollar comparisons to a STS to be valid?  To make an STS look better? The AP player will then have one of the same problems as the STS player - jackpots hit at the low end of the progression.
 
What's wrong with looking at average bets?  That's not "hypothetical slice and dice stuff".
 

I take that "hypothetical 1 COIN" chance that I will get to quit my session by pressing the draw button and getting 4oak.  It happens often.

 
Many players often hit the draw button and get a 4oak.