Fa La La La La.... La la la la's Luck

[denflo60]

[QUOTE=denflo60] Despite, the comments to the contrary, I don't feel I will ever reach the long term as I get to Vegas 5 or 6 times a year for 5 days each and do not play anywhere else so I value short term comments.  Now in a relative sense there is not a lot written about the short term, because math guys seem (I was an Engineer) squeemish about talking about anything with a time element less than infinity or whatever they term the long run to be.
 
Denny, there is a TON of information written on "whatever" term VP. It's called statistical analysis and based on your stated interest you should already know and understand everything you need to know. It's not exactly a new science. It seems to me you're more interested in ignoring basic math and finding some magic bullet that anyone knowledgeable about statistics can tell you DOESN'T EXIST.
 
To use a much worn cliche ... this is not rocket science. Expected results based on any number of hands can be given in probabilities. The more hands, the tighter the probabilities become that you will be near YOUR expected return. No "short term", no "long term", just ever tightening probabilities.
 
The only reason people talk about an EXACT value for expected return is because that is the simplest to understand. One little number. No need to talk about probabilities that tend to make most folk's eyes glaze over. That is where the phrase "long term" comes from. Ignore it. It really has no place in VP since no one will ever play an infinite number of hands. Just think of the infinite hand ER as a goal. There is nothing better.
 
I know this is not what you want to hear. Sorry.[/QUOTE]

[denflo60]

Shadowman:  I take no umbrage re your comments.  I admit my stat background is not my strongest suit.  I had the basic college course or two plus some operations research in grad school and we used it for warranty analysis as part of some of my past jobs.  If you're correct, then I can assume that somewhere in these five gambling stat books I'm getting, I will be able to prove it to myself.  Right now my brain can't get around why I can't somehow take advantage of positive and negative swings in VP even if they are at random time intervals and random magnitudes.  If its possible  (My brain doesn't now  recognize whether it is or is not) to determine when I am playing during one of these periods, it seems I could take advantage of it.  I know math guys have told me it isn't but not why.  For example since I play 100 way VP, I could play more hands during a positive swing and less hands during a negative swing which my old brain mentally compares to a Kelly type of betting.  Its the old Engineer in me talking.  We Engineers used to always say, there must be a better way to do it.  The production guys follow up was "Its time to shoot the Engineers and build the damn thing".  Engineers never intend to skirt around math proofs just  use the proofs to their best advantage.       Denny

[shadowman]

Right now my brain can't get around why I can't somehow take advantage of positive and negative swings in VP even if they are at random time intervals and random magnitudes.  If its possible  (My brain doesn't now  recognize whether it is or is not) to determine when I am playing during one of these periods, it seems I could take advantage of it.  I know math guys have told me it isn't but not why.  For example since I play 100 way VP, I could play more hands during a positive swing and less hands during a negative swing which my old brain mentally compares to a Kelly type of betting.  Denny
 
Yesterday, I was playing next to a lady who had a couple of good hands (250 credits each) right after she sat down. This was followed by a relatively bad set of hands so she reduced her bet from 5 coins to 2 coins. A few hands later she got one of the of top premium hands. If she would have got the top hand she would have lost 7000 credits, it did cost her 200-300 coins. Many years ago I also used the same approach as this lady. I can tell you from personal experience that I saw no way "predict" future results.
 
This would be similar in your approach to reducing the number of hands from 100 to maybe 40 and getting dealt a good quad. eventually you see the same % of good hands while lowering your bet. The problem with identifying streaks is they are just as random as results. Random start/stop/length and a bad steak may last an entire session. You may experience ANY streak during a session with intermitent results so you won't know if you're in a good or bad one. Interestingly, my personal experience is most of my RFs have occurred when I thought I was doing poorly. I know an individual who claims most of his RFs occur right away when he starts gambling. I'm sure it's different for everyone.
 
With your approach of reducing the number of hands you are not changing your ER. So, it's an experiment that costs you little. Some days you'll guess right and go home ahead, other days you'll guess wrong and go home behind but over time your results will still be about the same.
 
Finally (whew), you want to know "why". It's really very simple. The only reason streaks exist is because the probabilities PREDICT they will exist and be variable in length and strength. In other words, the fact that the probability of various results is the same each for every hand leads to random streaks. In other words, a future streak is just as unpredictable as your next hand. You can even simulate this with a computer.
 

[oej719]

Ok so vp is random and streaky. My understanding is that machines in nevada have a minimun and maximun payout. Vp depends on the players skill of holding the right cards. Most players come no where close to perfect. Seems that the percentage should get way out of wack from unskilled players dumping money in on vacation. How does the machine come back within min and max percentage to stay legal?
Fa La La La La.... La la la la says the machines are random EXCEPT when they are about to  reach those min/max limits. If they are at min limit it gives you a jackpot --quad or royal-- whatever it needs to put itself back in line. Then it reverts back to complete random. In one big hit it is back in line percentage wise.
If it is at max payout limit it will turn cold and just allow enough hits to allow itself to reach a safe point and then finally revert back to complete randomness. This cold cycle can last awhile, not like the hot cycle that can be accomplished in one big hit
Makes some sense to me. Otherwise how could it maintain it's percentage and remain legal.
Vp has player interaction based on decision making unlike one arm bandits.  Anyone have an answer?

[cddenver]

Ok so vp is random and streaky. My understanding is that machines in nevada have a minimun and maximun payout. Vp depends on the players skill of holding the right cards. Most players come no where close to perfect. Seems that the percentage should get way out of wack from unskilled players dumping money in on vacation. How does the machine come back within min and max percentage to stay legal?
 

I'll quote from the gaming regulations here in CO - my apologies if the formatting looks funny, I'm just copying/pasting them here:
 
=======
The slot machine game program must theoretically pay out at least 80.0 percent and no more than 100.0 percent of the amount wagered. The theoretical payout percentage is determined using standard methods of probability theory. When applied to games whose outcome is determined in whole or in part by skill, the 100.0 percent theoretical pay out shall be computed using the optimum play strategy for compliance of the given game tested and the 80.0 percent theoretical pay out will be computed using the lowest manufacturer’s expected return for the game program.
=======
 
The 80% / 100% numbers refer to long run ER for specific game types.  Simply means that here in CO casinos can't offer games with long run returns less than 80% or greater than 100%.  Those numbers don't have anything to do with individual sessions, or individual players misplaying hands - the casinos have to assume "optimum play".  There's no code in the machines that "turns them down" if the yield for the machine happens to hit 100%, or "turns them up" if the yield drops to 80%.  Just statistical principles at work.  We all spend quite a bit of our gaming time playing at < 80%, if you look at the time periods between quads.
 
The Nevada people can post if their regs are different....
 

[oej719]

To Denflo60,
If and when you make a discovery I hope you are willing to share your findings, good or bad. I for one would like to know, if streaks can be taken advantage of somehow.
 

[oej719]

cddenver, so are you trying to say that a machine will never fall below 80%hold , and never higher than a 100% payback. How do you suppose that can happen with total randomness all the time when regulations state that they must be in a range of 80-100%. 
If regulators go in and find a vp machine at 70% because of poor play what do they do? How can a machine that continually is played poorly ever bought back up to 80%.

[shadowman]

Ok so vp is random and streaky. My understanding is that machines in nevada have a minimun and maximun payout. Vp depends on the players skill of holding the right cards. Most players come no where close to perfect. Seems that the percentage should get way out of wack from unskilled players dumping money in on vacation. How does the machine come back within min and max percentage to stay legal?
 
The max/min value in most state regs. refers to expected results for VP. 
 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la says the machines are random EXCEPT when they are about to  reach those min/max limits. If they are at min limit it gives you a jackpot --quad or royal-- whatever it needs to put itself back in line. Then it reverts back to complete random. In one big hit it is back in line percentage wise.
If it is at max payout limit it will turn cold and just allow enough hits to allow itself to reach a safe point and then finally revert back to complete randomness. This cold cycle can last awhile, not like the hot cycle that can be accomplished in one big hit
Makes some sense to me. Otherwise how could it maintain it's percentage and remain legal.
Vp has player interaction based on decision making unlike one arm bandits.  Anyone have an answer?
 
Obviously, this statement is right in tune with his reported results and almost everything else the man says. The Nevada gaming regulations clearly prohibit ALL secondary programming. Don't believe me? See for yourself.
 
http://gaming.nv.gov/stats_regs/reg14.pdf
 
From what I can tell Fa La La La La.... La la la la has one goal ... promote himself as a VP guru. There are already many others telling the same (mathematically proveable) story, Fa La La La La.... La la la la must have decided he had to separate himself from the pack. Since everyone else was saying the world was round, Fa La La La La.... La la la la decided to claim the world is really flat. What's amazing is the number of folks who fall for his line .
 

[oej719]

Shadowman,
You say
The max/min value in most state regs. refers to expected results for VP. 
 
What is expected value.? Sounds like it has no teeth as far as regulations go, if it never has to be realized?  Help me understand this in plain English.

[denflo60]

oej719:   Will do.  While I would like to make more money, I am really exploring this as a mental exercise.  Even if it is theoretically possible, it may not be practical to implement real time.  Despite everyone's wisdom, I still haven't convinced myself it can't be done.    Denny