New Strategy in 2012

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe]OK - now that we have gotten WAY far afield with this string, I am still looking for an answer/opinion from Frank, Shadow, New2VP, BD et al on my question regarding machine selection, which is now back on Page 3 of this post. My new strategy will get kicked off in Biloxi in a few days, and I need guidance. 


Frank and New2VP, that you very much for taking the time to respond. I didn't mean to throw you such a 'ringer' of a question, but the whole idea of game volatility is on my mind more now after reviewing my 2011 results. I knew that there would probably be no easy answer.
I believe, at least in the short run, because of where my head is at right now, the pay table differential would have to be very large for me to drift away from the lower volatility game choice this year if presented with those two machines. Surprised??   Well, four hour sessions for me may not yield the number of hands that New2VP used in his analysis, since I am easily distracted by pretty cocktail waitresses, chats with other players, bathroom breaks for my weak bladder, etc. So playing the TDB choice in my example may not give it enough time for those bonus hands to materialize. It happened a few times last year, but as they say, that was last year. I am looking this year to see if I can flatten out those peaks and valleys a little, while still maintaining a play level high enough to earn credits and tier status. We will see how the year progresses.

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank and New2VP, that you very much for taking the time to respond. I didn't mean to throw you such a 'ringer' of a question, but the whole idea of game volatility is on my mind more now after reviewing my 2011 results. I knew that there would probably be no easy answer.
I believe, at least in the short run, because of where my head is at right now, the pay table differential would have to be very large for me to drift away from the lower volatility game choices this year.   We will see how the year progresses. I think you're really getting a feel for the whole think before you leap aspect of VP. Only you know your bankroll and what you can tolerate. Given all your comments of late, I trust that you will make the best choice FOR YOU.For me the choice related to the games you mentioned wouldn't be, "which I should play?" it would be what anti anxiety medication I needed to take. There's a reason I'm salary. I'm highly risk adverse.

[shadowman]

billyjoe, one possibility is to consider playing a little at both games and go with whatever appears to be working for you at the time. The difference is not great so overall it is unlikely to make a large difference.
 
Of course, the danger is you will hit the AWAK playing DB which, while still a nice return, is not anything close to the TDB return. However, there is something to be said for playing the game that you like at the moment. After all, it is still recreation for you and you shouldn't discount the enjoyment factor.

[BillyJoe]

billy joe, one possibility is to consider playing a little at both games and go with whatever appears to be working for you at the time. The difference is not great so overall it is unlikely to make a large difference.
 
Of course, the danger is you will hit the AWAK playing DB which, while still a nice return, is not anything close to the TDB return. However, there is something to be said for playing the game that you like at the moment. After all, it is still recreation for you and you shouldn't discount the enjoyment factor.
Thanks, Shadow. I had thought about that also, maybe an 80/20 mix of non-volatile/volatile, assuming a similar pay table.
Moving from all TDB to DB for me will probably feel like someone trying to quit smoking..

[Frank Kneeland]

After all, it is still recreation for you and you shouldn't discount the enjoyment factor.I have no idea what you're talking about. What "enjoyment factor?".Oh you mean the cocktail waitresses...right?

[shadowman]

Thanks, Shadow. I had thought about that also, maybe an 80/20 mix of non-volatile/volatile, assuming a similar pay table.
Moving from all TDB to DB for me will probably feel like someone trying to quit smoking..


 
Well, DB is not exactly low variance. It's not like going all the way to JOB. Still a nice result if you hit quad aces and you don't have to worry about keeping kickers.
 
And just think, every time you hit 3oak you can celebrate!

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=shadowman]After all, it is still recreation for you and you shouldn't discount the enjoyment factor.

I have no idea what you're talking about. What "enjoyment factor?".

Oh you mean the cocktail waitresses...right?
[/QUOTE]
C'mon, Frank - loosen up a little in the casino when you are called to play at those progressives. Kick back, and smell the second-hand smoke.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=Frank Kneeland] [QUOTE=billy joe] Well, I had a good 2011 in VP, thanks in part to some nice hits, even though I played mostly volatile VP games, like TDB. I was thinking, though, of changing my strategy for 2012, and play less-volatile games with the best pay tables that I can find

I'm going to let shadow and New2VP answer your other questions, I wanted to focus on something else, you! Hats off and celebrations all around. What you are describing is nothing less than an understanding of one of  life's great secrets, and it can help you be far more than merely a better gambler: The role of chance.

You employed a strategy in 2011 and it worked for you in 2011, and yet your eyes are open to the possibility that chance and not your actions and choices were the cause of your success. Even in the blinding light of success you are looking past that to the shadow of future choice cognizant of the fact that in gambling the past may not be the best predictor of the future. Do you have any idea how rare that is? Kudos!

You are also considering going from games with huge swings to ones with less fluctuation, which is even rarer. The tendency amongst gamblers, and especially problem gamblers is to go up in denomination and to play riskier and riskier games. The direction you are headed is towards safe, controlled wagering and very low risk to ever develop problems.

Given the incredible year you had you may never top that, and if you change to safer games you probably never will, so don't try.

Know that you dodged a semi-truck and revel in your choice not to keep playing in traffic.

~FK
[/QUOTE]
Thanks, Frank. You actually nailed my thought process exactly. I recognize that some of my wins last year were extremely rare, and to expect to duplicate that year after year is a fool's errand. I enjoy playing VP, but I would be VERY unhappy in the poor house.
Now, if I can just keep from falling off the bandwagon. [/QUOTE]
Well, my first real test came last week - a trip to Phoenix and a few days of play at Harrah's Ak-Chin. I scoured the casino for the best pay table that I could find, and settled in to a single line, $2, Double Bonus 9/7/5, a 99.11% return. Of course, here is what happened...

 
So, as I watched the attendant count out my $1600, my mind wandered to TDB, where I would be collecting $8000 for this hand. Needless to say, I watched the low-volatility game  "bandwagon" trotting off without me, and predictably, I never saw another AWAK that trip playing TDB.  
 

[brmcc74]

Billy, although its better to have hit AAA3 than not at all, Id much rather that you would have been on TDB. Murphy's Law always seems to apply.

[shadowman]

Another way to look at it is you would have hit no quad aces at all on your trip if you had been playing TDB. Not only were you $1600 to the better for the aces, you also got $10 extra for every 3oak and straight.