Video Poker Distributions are Not Normal

[Frank Kneeland]

Answer and replies to ongoing Backsider and FK
Q&A conversation.And first let me say thank you for taking the time to answer these direct questions, I believe some good knowledge came out of it.Scenario A Someone offers you this deal:
You can put a revolver with 5 out 6 chambers loaded to your head and
pull the trigger. If you survive you get a million dollars.#1
Is that a good idea?
No.

#2 Should you take the bet?
No.

Ok, so what this tells me is that if we simplify the basic
concepts and keep the probabilities obvious, in this case 5 out of 6
bullets meaning your demise, then you have no problem with
understanding that some things are bad bets because the chance for
failure is too high.
Scenario B You meet a guy that took the bet and survived and
now has a million dollars and someone asks you, #3 "Do
you think that taking that bet was good judgment on his part?"
It
still wasn't a good bet. But make it for other than the possibility
of costing a life and it was a good bet at this point. Now I ask you,
are you able to understand the difference between winning or losing
at video poker and life or death scenarios?Yes
of course I can distinguish life or death situations from VP. The
goal of asking this question was to see if you could judge decisions
without including the outcome in really obvious situations; life or
death seemed apropos. I find it very telling that you said , “But
make it for other than the possibility of costing a life and it was a
good bet at this point.” Why
is that comment interesting? It's interesting because you use the
words, “at this point” and
the question set up was very specifically designed to see if you
could judge the decision irrespective of the outcome. You could not.
Here's the extra exposition on the question, notice the capitalized
word and bold text:
Obviously, the bet is in the past and he survived. It came out
all right. Oh, five other guys died, but let's not worry about them
they're dead and they aren't talking. Do you think the lone survivor
made a good choice back BEFORE he knew how it would turn
out?Certainly, if we include knowledge of the
future(now the past) in his decision one could think he made the
right choice. But if we remove the knowledge of his assured survival
then taking a bet with a 83.33% chance of fatality is clearly NOT A
GOOD IDEA.
Judging decisions by their outcome is a very common, almost
ubiquitous human tendency, which is only recently been understood by
the psychological community. In gambling it is considered a major
risk factor for developing problems. The reasons are obvious: If
people who have simply gotten “lucky”, believe it was due to
skill or something they did, they may gamble less wisely in the
future.#4 So I ask you, can you separate the known past
from the unknown future and stop judging your decisions by how they
turned out?
The only
way you believe you're being logical is because you're associating
video poker with something that is extraordinarily important, and it
is not. You do that in every post you make as if its the tale of the
world, and you somehow believe what you have to opine about it will
save the world. Thats what I mean when I say you are not connected to
the real world and real players. I believe its YOU who needs to back
up some and review what you're doing. Just like your saying how
you've played 25million hands or some crazy number like that. To me
that spells "serious addict with a problem" but I don't
think you'd ever admit to that because you're always talking about
the subject as if you're the analyst and the rest of us are your
subjects. Its a good cover and I have some interesting analyses of my
own that puts a high degree of probability to that statement.
You made two good points here
and your facts are correct.
I take VP information very
seriously. Perhaps way too seriously.
Playing over 25 Million
hands of VP would normally spell “serious addict”.

I believe your explanations for
these facts aren't taking a few things into consideration. Here's
what you might not be including.
I spent a very large
portion of my VP career training team players and other VP
professionals. I also received a wage for this. I got paid to
indoctrinate people into pro VP. For most of my students this
provided them with jobs and income, and in some cases life long
careers. In the early days I had ABSOLUTLY NO EXPOSURE to people
with gambling problems whatsoever, and thought there was a clear
line in the sand between pro and non-pro gambling. Only after many
years and the fullness of time did I start to find out that not all
my students were without issues. It was a small percentage, but I
still felt somehow responsible, since in a few cases I was pretty
sure these people would never have set foot in a casino if not for
me. When I realized that VP knowledge could be a boon and a bane I
promised myself I would never give out pro VP knowledge again
without also warning people about the dangers. If you had lived my
life and seen what I have seen you'd understand why I take it so
seriously. I can take it no other way.
As far as how much I've
played, I think you are forgetting it's my job and I get paid to do
it. I guess you can't really relate unless you've worked in the biz.
Try to imagine it. Except for about 10 min of play picking up
free-play in the last month, I have not once set foot in a casino
unless someone called me or text-ed me that I needed to pull a
shift. If you can't understand the difference between doing
something because you want to, and doing something because you have
to and it's your job, I guess I can't explain it any better.
Bartenders do not necessarily have drinking problems because they
spend all their time mixing drinks.

#5 Would you agree that in advance of making a decision and
without knowledge of the future all we have to go on is the most
likely outcome?
I agree
on the most likely outcome scenario, but when a normal vp player goes
at it he is not looking at that part of the event as having any
importance at all. We all know that something or anything can happen
when we play, and making a decision to be at a machine for an hour or
two is never defined by "the most likely outcome".
Ah... we have had a
breakthrough!!! I agree with you that most VP players don't account
for the most likely outcome and feel it has no importance at all. But
listen to what you are saying! How could the most likely outcome not
be important? It is after all the most likely outcome. Most people
that play VP will indeed experience the most likely outcome most of
the time, mostly. And how could information targeted at most people
be anything other than good advice?
And your comment about, “
making a decision to be at a machine for an hour or two” belies the
underlying truth that an hour or two at a time adds up to days, then
weeks, and then months all too fast. Ultimately, it doesn't matter
how much people play in a session, because people start right back
where they left off even if it doesn't seem that way to them. Playing
10,000 hands in one day is functionally identical in result to
playing 1,000 hands on ten days. The only thing that changes is the
time it takes, and of course how they mentally record it.Keeping a running tally that ignores breaks is often all it takes to bring people back to reality, though since it is most often an unwelcome reality, people fight doing this tooth and nail. In the face of a running tally free from the imaginary lines of demarcation provided by trips and sessions, suddenly "wins" can become "loss reductions" and the "casino's money" can turn out to be "your own".I'm not asking people to give up the fun of gambling, I'm only asking them consider if their fun is real or the result of self deception. If people keep accurate lifetime records and know their real lifetime result and still enjoy gambling, then all I can say is, "more power to them".  #6 Considering the difference in our
experience level playing real machines in real casinos, why do you
think your personal hand sample is a "better"
representation of reality than mine?
I look
at every time I play as a real experience. You look at it as an
extension of some theoretical experiment. The fact that you've played
all those hands only tells me you cannot be living in the real world
because you've wasted so much time away from the real world by doing
so.
I have no idea what you mean by
this nor do I understand your reasoning. It sounds as if you are
saying that my greater experience is a negative and working at my job
isn't real. If that is what you are saying I'm not sure how to
respond.

As far as my theoretical
attitude towards VP, all you need to understand is this. I use theory
for deciding what to play. I have real world results as well that
back up that theory, but those results are in support of the
mathematical theory that preceded them. Math comes first, then
results can back that up. I have both, not merely one of the two.
When talking about VP I prefer to stick to the math because results
can lie. And results are extra meaningless when not preceded or
backed up by expectation.#7 Do you understand that
even though anything can happen once you sit down there is still a
most likely outcome?
Yes,
even though anything can happen there is still the likely but
theoretical outcome to consider. I give more credence to the anything
scenario because in the amount of time I put in at machines I cant
ever remember the most likely scenario ever occurring.


That's because you look at each
time you enter the casino as a new deal and you press the mental
reset button when you leave. The machines don't know you left and
can't distinguish between a one second pause and a week long break.
The reality is that pausing to sip a drink and pausing to go home and
sleep are still both just pauses. They are different in duration and
nothing else. If you kept a running tally of ALL your play rather
than thinking of things in trips and sessions you'd might start to
see it, but that would require a paradigm shift in your thought
processes.
It's very natural to look at
things the way you do and it requires fighting human nature itself to
see it. Think of it like this: How could keeping accurate life-time
records hurt you and tell you anything other than the
truth??? And
finally, I know from reading this and other forums that you like to
think of yourself as some kind of vp Messiah who has all the answers
while occasionally being humble and always less mean than most. Its
like you can solve everyones problems because you play on a team of
some kind, and I look at that as nothing more than being hired for
street cash by some hustler. But I don't buy what you're saying and I
really think that if I were on your bandwagon Id have never sat at
that poor paytable machine when I hit it. You would have cost me and
my family $20k by me playing at a better paytable machine. At the
same time you would have crowed about how it was a good decision
because it was a better bet with a "likely better outcome"
at which point if my wife understood all this she would have hit you
over the head with her shoe.

You don't help everybody Frank,
as good as your intentions may be. Why you are so vocal about all
this I don't know, but I see issues.
VP messiah huh...Well no I've never thought of it that way. I
think my hyper odd PRO VP career gives me a very unusual perspective
on pro and non-pro VP. I think that other VP authors are less
concerned about the possible negative aspects of pro VP knowledge and
I'd like to think my take on things is more balanced and mindful of
the good AND the bad. I know you know that some people do have
gambling problems, I simply try to account for them as well when
posting information publicly.
You have apparently linked in your mind that following my advice
would have cost you $20,000 and there's nothing I can say to alter
that. There's no way to know what would have happened in an alternate
time-line where you choose a different path. Maybe you would have
done better, maybe you would have done worse, no one can say. I find
it a bit odd that after talking so much about how you dislike theory
and prefer to stick to real results, you are making up a hypothetical
situation where listening to me could only have been a bad idea.
You made a decision and now you are justifying that decision by
how it turned out. This is a text book example of outcome bias and
hindsight bias and it is strongly warned against in every book on
problem gambling I have ever read. I'd be morally remiss if I didn't
share that knowledge, but since I have, at least my conscious will be
clear.
I believe I've done about as much as I can on all this, so I'll
leave you to it. I'll be busy for the next week. Be well and if
nothing else, just practice moderation. Moderation in all things is
always a good idea.
I'll be posting the Dr. McCown interview in about a week. I hope
you and everyone else will find it interesting.

[New2vp]

Wasnt it nice to see New2vp come back and edit in his sympathies...Actually, using the edit button might be a way to improve many of your own posts. For maximal improvement, after hitting EDIT, follow up by pressing CLEAR FORM, then OK, and then UPDATE POST.  And to improve your video poker results, repeat (100 times or until you can understand it) "30 coins on a flush is better than 25, 30 coins on a flush is better than 25, ..."

[faygo]

[BillyJoe]

OK, I said I was done, but one last post on this subject from me, and then I'm going to hide under the bed.

Backsider, you keep thinking that Frank is a VP Player like us. He is nothing like us, but probably not for the reasons that you think. It is not his experience that makes him different, because he has no experience in our VP world. He does not "gamble", he sits at a machine that he is told to sit at, hits Max Bet and Draw until his "shift" is over, then leaves. If online gambling becomes legal, and can be applied to progressive VP, he will be out of a job, because his "team" will be a computer program that someone will find a way to integrate into online gaming playing instead.
 
Now one thing Frank has is a ton of observational experience, and that has value. But by his own admission, he does not put his own money at risk on VP as we do. So I keep his advice on choices in perspective when I read his posts.
 
I will ALWAYS try to find a good pay table when I play, but when I take a trip to Vegas to play VP, I will play the best that I am offered by the casino I choose to play in. Contrary to popular belief, cute drink girls do not dictate where I play (doesn't hurt, though). I am more driven by how I am treated, which gets back to comps and tier status.
  
You use the word "luck', where I think of it as "good fortune". I believe in the math that a VP pay table dictates, but in order to get a good win, you have to be there and playing to get it. A better pay table will allow a player to "be there" longer, since it will help stretch their bankroll a bit, while a poorer pay table may shorten their play time. Whether a longer play time nets a big win for you before you tap out no one can predict.
 
For us, money management is the key, something that is irrelevant to Frank's play. Good pay tables will help money management, no question. But, an even BETTER help is recognizing when you have hit a "good fortune" hand. That is a good time to pocket it (or in my case, I get a check), and run. Sure, you will be back at some time in the future, God willing, maybe even the next day. But you have, at least, increased your gaming bankroll, and if nothing else, that is something good. And hey, you get to post your win in Forum, which is REALLY good.    

[backsider]

OK, I said I was done, but one last post on this subject from me, and then I'm going to hide under the bed.

Backsider, you keep thinking that Frank is a VP Player like us. He is nothing like us, but probably not for the reasons that you think. It is not his experience that makes him different, because he has no experience in our VP world. He does not "gamble", he sits at a machine that he is told to sit at, hits Max Bet and Draw until his "shift" is over, then leaves. If online gambling becomes legal, and can be applied to progressive VP, he will be out of a job, because his "team" will be a computer program that someone will find a way to integrate into online gaming playing instead.
Now one think Frank has is a ton of observational experience, and that has value. But by his own admission, he does not put his own money at risk on VP as we do. So I keep his advice on choices in perspective when I read his posts.
I will ALWAYS try to find a good paytable when I play, but when I take a trip to Vegas to play VP, I will play the best that I am offered by the casino I choose to play in.   
 BJ, besides going back on your word, you further stepped in it by missing the following which I wrote at 1:30pm today. I actually understand and agree with much of what you say, only it applies to players like you and not me. Put yourself into the shoes of someone who goes in to play 1-2 hours every 3 weeks and put aside what all those hours you play mean, then maybe youll understand how we go in expecting to lose whether its a + or - paytable because thats the nature of the beast. Wins then become nothing but luck. Good luck in future endeavors.

[backsider]

[QUOTE=backsider]Wasnt it nice to see New2vp come back and edit in his sympathies...Actually, using the edit button might be a way to improve many of your own posts. For maximal improvement, after hitting EDIT, follow up by pressing CLEAR FORM, then OK, and then UPDATE POST.  And to improve your video poker results, repeat (100 times or until you can understand it) "30 coins on a flush is better than 25, 30 coins on a flush is better than 25, ..."[/QUOTE]
 And I thought Frank was a thorn in your side.........

[backsider]

Frank, thank you for the insight when you really didnt have to. I dont have time to talk about most of it so Ill just give my 3 cents about those 25million hands.  Youre right, I dont understand being somehow paid by someone to play this game. The first thing that comes to my mind is how the heck can you make a living doing that, at least a normal living? Plus what kind of future is in that? You seem so much smarter than to be a baggage carrier for some street hustler. I see a B. Dancer turning 65 and making a big deal on the forums and in his writings about going to tournaments and sitting at machines losing tens of thousands for tens of hours (at least thats how much he admits to for who knows why) when I plan on retiring LONG before that age with a nice comfortable upper middle class income. He ducked the point and probably for good reason, but you all but deny youre addicted to playing. I dont believe that. And you say that Im the one who makes bad decisions?  I still believe youre so interested in problem gambling from past posts on a few forums, because youre afraid YOU have a problem and are talking about it from the back door. Not that its such a revelation or bad thing depending on your circumstances, because I probably have a problem too. Im just saying whats the difference if you play on someone elses nickle (which I think is very, very odd) or your own?

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe]OK, I said I was done, but one last post on this subject from me, and then I'm going to hide under the bed.

Backsider, you keep thinking that Frank is a VP Player like us. He is nothing like us, but probably not for the reasons that you think. It is not his experience that makes him different, because he has no experience in our VP world. He does not "gamble", he sits at a machine that he is told to sit at, hits Max Bet and Draw until his "shift" is over, then leaves. If online gambling becomes legal, and can be applied to progressive VP, he will be out of a job, because his "team" will be a computer program that someone will find a way to integrate into online gaming playing instead.
Now one think Frank has is a ton of observational experience, and that has value. But by his own admission, he does not put his own money at risk on VP as we do. So I keep his advice on choices in perspective when I read his posts.
I will ALWAYS try to find a good paytable when I play, but when I take a trip to Vegas to play VP, I will play the best that I am offered by the casino I choose to play in.   
 
BJ, besides going back on your word, you further stepped in it by missing the following which I wrote at 1:30pm today. I actually understand and agree with much of what you say, only it applies to players like you and not me. Put yourself into the shoes of someone who goes in to play 1-2 hours every 3 weeks and put aside what all those hours you play mean, then maybe youll understand how we go in expecting to lose whether its a + or - paytable because thats the nature of the beast. Wins then become nothing but luck.
 
Good luck in future endeavors.[/QUOTE]
Sorry, I was busy editing my post.  Give the updated one a read, Backsider, if you like.  Best of 'fortune' to you, also.

[Frank Kneeland]

I have just enough time to day for one reply to one post. I picked this one.

Frank, thank you for the insight when you really didn't have to. I don't have time to talk about most of it so Ill just give my 3 cents about those 25million hands.  Youre right, I dont understand being somehow paid by someone to play this game. The first thing that comes to my mind is how the heck can you make a living doing that, at least a normal living? Plus what kind of future is in that? You seem so much smarter than to be a baggage carrier for some street hustler. My last non-casino related job was doing on-site computer service and for nearly two years I barely walked into a casino, let alone played. I switched jobs after a call from an old associate that offered me about 25% more money than I was making as a computer technician for about half the hours. I'll let you decide if that was motivated by a desire to play machines or just good sense.You are correct, the job has no major benefits, or pension, etc... They do pay for my medical expenses. The folks I work with are pretty far from street hustlers and are amongst the nicest most honest people I've met in my entire life. There's no need to imagine them, I offered to introduce you if you ever come to town. Offers still open. but you all but deny you're addicted to playing. I don't believe that. And you say that I'm the one who makes bad decisions?If you listen to my Special Interview with Dr. McCown on my website where he interviews myself and 3 other gamblers we addressed the issue of professional video poker players actually being addicts, The conclusion was that some are and some aren't. People do things for a great many different reasons. I have never chosen to play machines at any point in my life that it wasn't the best choice (highest paying job) financially for me at the time. And as you know, I not only have friends who are psychologists, but I communicate with the top people in the field. What I'm told by them is that I have an anti-addictive personality that actually resents anything I feel I need, want, or can't live without. It makes relationships difficult, but puts me in a nearly no risk category for addiction of any kind.I also have unusually low dopamine levels, which means that due to neurologically factors activities like playing VP are not entertaining or enjoyable for me. Believe me when I tell you, you'd have to pay me to do it. I don't even look at the cards that come in on the draw because by the time I've held my selections after the deal I've already lost interest. I still believe you're so interested in problem gambling from past posts on a few forums, because you're afraid YOU have a problem and are talking about it from the back door. Not that its such a revelation or bad thing depending on your circumstances, because I probably have a problem too. I'm just saying whats the difference if you play on someone else's nickel (which I think is very, very odd) or your own? Odd job, ya you got that straight. Though not any odder than some of the things I do for a living. Currently I'm writing erotica for a escort website.I see you still think my worry about problem gambling comes from an internal feeling that I have a problem. Well it's one possible explanation, and I could see how you might think that not knowing me in person. If you did know me personally, we wouldn't be having this conversation.I tried to explain why I am so concearned about problem gambling. In my early days I trained a lot of people without any thought to gambling addiction whatsoever. A few of these people developed serious problems. I felt at least partially responsible, and I vowed never to let it happen again. So now I always include cautionary advice along with pro gambler knowledge.Isn't guilt and a desire to help people enough motivation to adequately explain my behavior?  Guilt alone is a pretty powerful motivator, at least if you have a conscious and care about other people.And finally it really doesn't matter to you what my motivations are. All the psychological advice I offer comes to you direct from books I've read on the subject, or in some cases direct from the mouths of experts in the field of psychology. My motivation for doing this is irrelevant unless one is looking for an excuse not to listen. Why people do things becomes far less of an issue if they are doing the right things.~FK

[mightwin]

I would like to tell Billyjoe that he's my hero.  Besides those beautiful pictures of wins, his post above says it perfectly.  Much better worded than I could have.   Frank, no offense, you don't have the same point of view we "recreational" players do.  You do bring lots of interesting information and view points, thanks for past, current, and future posts. I have learned many things reading these posts and would like to thank every one that has given me facts and advice over the years.   I understand math is involved, but it's hard to swallow some days when the machine seems to be acting more like a hoover than an atm.   The first time in Las Vegas years ago - you used to see the "over 100% payback guaranteed" signs everywhere.  Stupid me thought that those signs promised if you spent "X", you were guaranteed to get your money back, plus some.  That was a long time ago, and I know that's not what they meant from lots of experience (and money). I agree and understand that better paytables are the best choice, but when you don't seem to connect with those hands - it's frustrating, not to mention pricey.   One more thing directly at Billyjoe.  Do you like the outfits over at the Rio on those pretty drink ladies? Thanks to everyone for the advice and stories.