Discuss the strategy in this Video

[shadowman]

[QUOTE=shadowman]You do remember Frank, right? He claimed he played with a 2-4% edge.

 


Wasn't Frank's edge from the size of the progressives?[/QUOTE]

Yes. Your point?

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe]
The 'edge' that you describe, though, is probably less than one percent, with PERFECT play ALL THE TIME. What I am hearing is that I may need a virtually unlimited bankroll through hours and hours of play on what I consider a boring game (JoB or NSU) to squeeze out a meager profit. If you fall behind early, unless you get a slew of natural RFs, how do you ever get back to profitability with those pay tables? Play more boring hours, I suppose.  
 
Not according to Frank. You do remember Frank, right? He claimed he played with a 2-4% edge. 
 
The return on a machine for me as a player is a function of what I receive in profit over the time that I play. I do not play a lot, so for me, if I can extend my play time on a machine, I have the 'opportunity' for a larger win in the short time that I have. "Losing less' is not the goal. 
 
So when you say 'mathematically impossible', I think you are ignoring the fact that larger payouts are possible in more volatile, albeit non-positive EV games with perfect play over a long time. One quad aces, even without a kicker, is 800 credits, versus 125 on J0B. The more games that I can get out of a fixed bankroll on that pay table, the better the opportunity for one of those bigger hands to hit. So if I am behind, I have a chance to catch up and profit. If that premium hand does not hit, then the Loss Stop keeps me afloat for the trip.   


 
No, mathematically impossible means exactly what the words mean. No more no less. While you may believe you are creating some kind of edge for yourself, it simply is not true. Sorry.[/QUOTE]
Who said anything about "creating some kind of edge for yourself" , Shadow ? I am talking about being able to play VP with a reasonable bankroll over a reasonable period of time, with the potential of winning money. It cannot be "mathematically impossible" if it occurs, and winning does occur.
 
I believe there is no edge in a casino. In VP, even a positive EV game requires time and precision to potentially achieve those numbers. I would bet that you could count on one hand the number of players that may be able to do that.
 
The only true odds bet in a casino remains at the crap table, where winning an odds bet on the pass line returns truly what he odds are, with no edge to the casino.  

[shadowman]

Who said anything about "creating some kind of edge for yourself" , Shadow ? I am talking about being able to play VP with a reasonable bankroll over a reasonable period of time, with the potential of winning money. It cannot be "mathematically impossible" if it occurs, and winning does occur.
 
Where did I say anything about "winning". I specifically mentioned the return of the game not changing. If you want to disagree with me, fine. But at least try to disagree with what I said.
 
I believe there is no edge in a casino. In VP, even a positive EV game requires time and precision to potentially achieve those numbers. I would bet that you could count on one hand the number of players that may be able to do that.
 
The only true odds bet in a casino remains at the crap table, where winning an odds bet on the pass line returns truly what he odds are, with no edge to the casino.  


 
You can always believe whatever you like, that does not change the fact that VP does present positive return opportunities at times. Of course it takes an effort to milk that cow. Otherwise you would never see a positive game. Just because it's hard doesn't change the fact that it's doable.

[DaBurglar]

  
The pros understand bankroll rquirements or they wouldn't be pros. Have a little appreciation for their skills man.
 
  Why???   What "Skills"??  My Plumber has "Skills".....so does my Urologist who snakes the tube up the wrong way and yanks out the kidney stones I get.   My barber has skills..... Sitting on one's arse furiously pushing buttons and doing math that is about as complex as balancing one's checkbook is hardly a skill, anymore than gambling is actually "an industry" (although Porn calls itself "the porn industry" so I guess it is a matter of perspective.)   I dont have a problem with someone who wants to spend their life playing a small edge trying to always get something for nothing, that's their choice, it is a free country.  But I do not have to respect their "skills" or appreciate them because there are none. This is FUN and entertainment, nothing more, it is a hobby at best, and a difficult hobby to earn a living at (other hobbies like antiques or coins or baseball cards are far easier to earn real significant livings at...)  Guys like Ringer,  and a number of others take themselves way too seriously, it screams from their posts and actions and statements.  A lot of other people who dont bother to learn the math behind Video poker but try to beat it anyway and dont manage their bankroll also take themselves way too seriously. I like to play VP....I also enjoy regular Live poker, an occasional Blackjack session, sports betting (when in Vegas) and playing chess competitively.   I'm proud to say I've earned more money playing chess than I have gambling, but I wouldnt even consider being a pro chess player full time trying to earn a living doing that.....it is too marginal, nothing is produced or advanced or reaffirmed.   It is simply a pastime, entertainment. The negative side of Video Poker, and all gambling, is far too evident and obvious to get into here, but I do know a number of people who have bankrupted themselves playing VP and other games in the casino, we all do.....I honestly have never met a chess player who was bankrupted by virtue of his chess profession, although I do know a plumber who ruined himself with a porn addiction.... Gambling is like booze, it stimulates the same center of the brain as sex, drugs and getting an "A" in physics, and is therefore addicting to some, but not all.....if you happen to be one of the "some" who are addicted, dont make yourself sicker like Sob Ringer by doubling down on your addiction and trying to turn it into a virtue, it wont work. 

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe]Who said anything about "creating some kind of edge for yourself" , Shadow ? I am talking about being able to play VP with a reasonable bankroll over a reasonable period of time, with the potential of winning money. It cannot be "mathematically impossible" if it occurs, and winning does occur.
 
Where did I say anything about "winning". I specifically mentioned the return of the game not changing. If you want to disagree with me, fine. But at least try to disagree with what I said.
 
Did you write for Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewinsky hearings ("it depends on what your definition of "it" is" - remember? ) ? You said "the return of the game ". To me, positive return is 'winning' - negative return is 'losing'.
 
 
I believe there is no edge in a casino. In VP, even a positive EV game requires time and precision to potentially achieve those numbers. I would bet that you could count on one hand the number of players that may be able to do that.
 
The only true odds bet in a casino remains at the crap table, where winning an odds bet on the pass line returns truly what he odds are, with no edge to the casino.  


 
You can always believe whatever you like, that does not change the fact that VP does present positive return opportunities at times. Of course it takes an effort to milk that cow. Otherwise you would never see a positive game. Just because it's hard doesn't change the fact that it's doable.[/QUOTE]



All I know is :
(A) Playing ALL VP, positive or negative EV,  is math
(B) You can win money at times on negative EV games
        therefore, winning on a negative EV machine is NOT "mathematically impossible".
 
If we have a disagreement, it is with the ABSOLUTES that seem to get thrown around, talking about a random game like VP.  

[shadowman]

All I know is :
(A) Playing ALL VP, positive or negative EV,  is math
(B) You can win money at times on negative EV games
        therefore, winning on a negative EV machine is NOT "mathematically impossible".
 
If we have a disagreement, it is with the ABSOLUTES that seem to get thrown around, talking about a random game like VP.  

 
Well, it sounds like we are in ccomplete agreement when it comes to "winning". How about addressing what I said instead of this red herring?

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe]



All I know is :
(A) Playing ALL VP, positive or negative EV,  is math
(B) You can win money at times on negative EV games
        therefore, winning on a negative EV machine is NOT "mathematically impossible".
 
If we have a disagreement, it is with the ABSOLUTES that seem to get thrown around, talking about a random game like VP.  

 
Well, it sounds like we are in ccomplete agreement when it comes to "winning". How about addressing what I said instead of this red herring?[/QUOTE]
I would be happy to.
 
You said "The fact is win/loss goals do not change the return of a machine. That is mathematically impossible."
 
I said "The return on a machine for me as a player is a function of what I receive in profit over the time that I play."
 
I went on to say" if I can extend my play time on a machine, I have the 'opportunity' for a larger win in the short time that I have"
 
Win/Loss Stop Points, for me, extend my play time on a gaming trip. What I am disputing is your refusal to recognize that they are a factor in my personal VP results, which is the only return on a machine that matters. I am going to play the best pay table that I can find for games that I enjoy playing. I do not care about the casino's return on any given machine over time.  
 
I don't see any color in that herring.

[shadowman]

Billyjoe, I'm sure you truly believe your goals make a difference. The only difference they make is reducing your overall play. Does that help? Yes, it should since you typically play games that are not positive returns. But, it does not change the expectation of the game. For the amount you play (whatever that is), you will still converge in the game's expectation over time.


 
This is not some wild theory of mine. It's a mathematically proven fact.

[BobDancer]

 Sitting on one's arse furiously pushing buttons and doing math that is about as complex as balancing one's checkbook is hardly a skill, anymore than gambling is actually "an industry" (although Porn calls itself "the porn industry" so I guess it is a matter of perspective.)   I dont have a problem with someone who wants to spend their life playing a small edge trying to always get something for nothing, that's their choice, it is a free country.  But I do not have to respect their "skills" or appreciate them because there are none.  
 First of all, sometimes I stand while I'm playing. I believe the skills at video poker are much more complex than you imply. Learning a strategy might well be fairly compared to balancing one's checkbook, but there are many additional skills as well:           1.   Figuring out the value of promotions.          2.   Figuring out the value of mailers.          3.   Successfully predicting what a casino will do next          4.   Managing your life healthwise, sleepwise, and bankroll-wise so that you are at your best when the promotions are the most valuable.          5.   Maintaining your welcome in casinos when others are being 86'd. (Nobody competent is perfect at this --- but many are able to enjoy more opportunities than others.)           6.  Getting BACK into casinos where you've previously been 86'd.           7.  Negotiating with players and casino employees so you get sufficient time on device.            8.  Avoiding a lot of expensive habits that are readily available in casinos (i.e. free booze, betting on games where you don't have the edge, eating moderately when "unlimited free food" is reading available, lots more.)           9.  Frequent scouting to find new opportunities to replace the ones that are always ending.           10. Sufficient study to maintain your edge in several games. Few successful players only play one game. Switching back and forth among several games at different casinos is not trivial.             11. Being able and willing to play at any hour of the day or night --- if that's what it takes for particular promotions.             12. Dealing with the emotions of bankroll ups and downs.             13. Dealing with relationship issues that are quite a bit different than the issues related to other jobs.               Whether you call these tasks skills or not --- whether you respect people who perform these tasks well or not --- some people are much better at these tasks than others.               Successful video poker gamblers tend to be good at a high number of these tasks --- and each player's blueprint for success is a bit different than anyone else's.    Bob             

[BillyJoe]

Billy Joe, I'm sure you truly believe your goals make a difference. The only difference they make is reducing your overall play. Does that help? Yes, it should since you typically play games that are not positive returns. But, it does not change the expectation of the game. For the amount you play (whatever that is), you will still converge in the game's expectation over time.


 
This is not some wild theory of mine. It's a mathematically proven fact.
I understand your point, Shadow - I really do. If I played a negative EV game consistently, through ALL the ups and downs, hand after hand, without regard to a diminishing bankroll, I agree that the math would rule in the end.
 
But this is the point that I am making. I don't do that. I try and take what is given during the highs, and limit the losses during the lows. Am I limited in the hands that I play? Heck yeah !! There are some nasty streaks of lows out there, and I try to avoid them, or at least cut the streak shorter by stopping. Am I missing some potential highs along the way? Of course !! 
 
The one thing about a streak, whether its good or bad. You never realize it was a streak until the streak is over. I try and cut it off before that, that's all. 
 
But this is the world of playing a volatile VP game. The probability of a natural RF is the same in a positive EV game, like JoB or NSU, as it is in a volatile, negative EV game like TDB. The difference that I see, though, is that there are additional quality payouts (AWAK=4000, TTF/kckr=2000, quad Aces=800) in a game like TDB that you do not see in JoB or NSU. Those are the hands that I am playing for - not just an RF. When I get them, and hit my Win Stop Point - I quit that session. If I have enough Win Stop Point sessions to overcome all the Loss Stop Point sessions, I have a successful gaming trip for my VP play.
 
Now, I may also play some table games and a few Hi-Limit slots during a trip, but this approach only applies to my VP play.  
 
Do you see my point? I hope so. Now, about those other distractions - cute waitresses, smooth whiskey.....