Single Game vs. Multi Game

[Burtwithau]

I believe that the multi line VP games I play are not rigged but I also believe that my exhaustive play (i.e. exhaustive of my piddling funds) are a few standard deviations from the mean.  Have I performed extensive statistical analysis no.  Having said that I feel that my comments are meaningful even if Shadowman disagrees. A word to the wise Shadowman, do not place yourself any higher than you are willing to fall.

[shadowman]

I believe that the multi line VP games I play are not rigged but I also believe that my exhaustive play (i.e. exhaustive of my piddling funds) are a few standard deviations from the mean.  Have I performed extensive statistical analysis no.  Having said that I feel that my comments are meaningful even if Shadowman disagrees. A word to the wise Shadowman, do not place yourself any higher than you are willing to fall.

 

How much have you played? A 2 stdv variance over a large sample would be a good reason to avoid that game.
 
Of course, the size of the sample is critical.

[Burtwithau]

I put thousands say 8-10k into multi line play and the results were such that I stopped playing and never went back.  It's not a matter of losing play, it's a matter that the game didn't demonstrate anything approaching a bell curve (anecdotal).  For example, I remember numerous numerous times where I held 4 to a flush on a hundred line game.  You should get about 19 flushes in that example as an average.  I was consistently in the low teens with one result equally 8.  I am fully aware that sample size is crucial to the argument but I don't feel like bench testing their machines as I play for the enjoyment.  I don't enjoy a game that plays in this manner.

[shadowman]

The real measure of play is the number of hands. Time and money can be deceptive when trying to understand results. In general, I'd say close to 100K hands is needed to have any feel for a game's honesty. Possibly more on multi-play since getting dealt quads can make such a big difference.
 
If a person is more than 20% below the expected number of a particular hand (with a frequency of 1000 hands or less) then it would be time to question the machine.  For example, in 100K hands you should get a little over 200 quads. If you only had 160 quads then I'd be suspicious.
 
I realize that's a lot of play and most people would likely avoid machines that are paying poorly long before 100K hands. However, that is the nature of randomness. Even a 1% chance means 1 person in a 100 will experience it or an individual will experience it sometime in their life once they play the same amount as the 100 individuals.
 
I've tried to keep this general and the numbers can vary widely so this is not a hard and fast recipe. As I've said before, if you have any doubts then track your results. For example, I happen to know the exact return I get each and every year.
 
For those who own winpoker or software that has a feature to automatically run thousands of hands you can do some tests yourself. Run the game you play for 100K hands. Look at the return compared to the ER. Look at the frequencies of the various hands. Now, do this 10-20 times. This will give you a feeling for the ranges of play that one can experience.

[Burtwithau]

I think you are missing the point.  I stopped playing because I didn't enjoy getting less than average results on the multi line play.  I may not have played long enough to get a monster hand or in your view a suitable sample size but my degree in Business-Finance with a minor in math told me that I wasn't coming close to the norm. By this I mean that I am not complaining with the dealt portion of the hand, only the draw for hand improvement across the board.  Are you understanding my point at all? All things being equal I would rather play $5 VP ($25 a hand) single line to playing .05 on 100 hands ($25 a hand) any day of the week.  A thousand pardons if my play didn't meet your minimum length requirements but the extra hands were not helping they were a drawback to play so I simply stopped playing them.  I value wisdom over intelligence and I truly believe that stopping the bleeding was the wise thing to do at that point.If you're the type that only believes in numbers then this point will be lost on you.  

[shadowman]

If you're the type that only believes in numbers then this point will be lost on you.  

 

When you get down to it the numbers win out over time.
 
We all like to think we can control our luck. In my experience that is simply not possible. There are things we can control like the play strategy and the games we play. We can also control the amount we gamble. Beyond that it's up to the numbers.

[Burtwithau]

I don't know anyone who can control their luck, perhaps you know of someone but that sounds absolutely bizarre to me.  It's been my experience that I play according to how my luck is holding.  For example, an end of session stopping ritual I have is to finish a significant winning hand/session with a three straight loss rule.  If I lose three times in a row on a 50/50 roughly prop bet then I walk away (ahead).You remind me of a friend of mine who used to use numbers and statistics like a drunk uses a light post (i.e. for support rather than illumination).

[shadowman]

You remind me of a friend of mine who used to use numbers and statistics like a drunk uses a light post (i.e. for support rather than illumination).

 

Sounds like the old joke about a drunk searching for his keys under the light post.
 
Math is useful in many situations. One of the tricks is to understand when it's useful and when it's not. It turns out that VP is one of the places where it is useful. Especially, for people like me with poor intuition. Hey, if you're somewhat psychic then go for it. For those of us who aren't, playing by the numbers is the best choice.

[Burtwithau]

Psychic?  Whoa there, I don't see where you get off putting that word in my mouth.  In no way, as I have stated, do I believe that you, me or anyone can control their luck.  Reread the sentence above where the word "bizarre" was used.I have noticed that you tend to make wild claims and then say that that is the other persons argument.  This is disingenuous at the least and inflammatory at the most.I find it interesting when Bob Fa La La La La.... La la la la wrote in a post that you usually lost at VP and you most vehemently denied this and questioned where he got his information as you had never stated this as such.  It is hypocritical that you do the same thing to others while attempting to act superior in your text's delivery.I play because I enjoy the game and as such my decision making process is dictated by same.  Yes, math is useful.  Actually, I was offered jobs as an actuary out of college and I consider myself a math person.  I trade stocks/options and have been doing so for 25  years and yes I have used math more than a few times in that pursuit.Our differences, you and me, are that you only see it as a math problem.  I see it as a release from my primary vocation's/retirement math problems.  Do I use math when I play VP, yes, is it my sole concern NO.  Enjoy the game as you see it but don't presuppose that you have a lock on knowledge and are predisposed to put others that see it differently, down.When you get older you will see that others have a perspective that should not be trifled with!!!  To do so is insulting, but hey, maybe that is where we differ. I tend to build up others and save my vitriol for people who appear pompous and who attempt to put themselves above others.Please respond, I have hope that you will show a better side of yourself than the current display.  Lastly, a comment that I hear from my friends a lot is that they appreciated the fact that I always stated things honestly to them even when we disagreed or the words were tough.  

[shadowman]

Psychic?  Whoa there, I don't see where you get off putting that word in my mouth.  In no way, as I have stated, do I believe that you, me or anyone can control their luck.  Reread the sentence above where the word "bizarre" was used.
 
You stated: " If I lose three times in a row on a 50/50 roughly prop bet then I walk away (ahead)."
 
I can only read this is being psychic since the probabilities didn't change. You clearly are "walking away" for some reason. Now, if you meant something else you should have clearly stated it. I was simply taking your word at face value.

I have noticed that you tend to make wild claims and then say that that is the other persons argument.  This is disingenuous at the least and inflammatory at the most.
 
Nonsense. You just made a wild claim and didn't back it up in the slightest.

I find it interesting when Bob Fa La La La La.... La la la la wrote in a post that you usually lost at VP and you most vehemently denied this and questioned where he got his information as you had never stated this as such.  It is hypocritical that you do the same thing to others while attempting to act superior in your text's delivery.
 
I think you've gone off the rails here. You aren't making any sense at all.

I play because I enjoy the game and as such my decision making process is dictated by same.  Yes, math is useful.  Actually, I was offered jobs as an actuary out of college and I consider myself a math person.  I trade stocks/options and have been doing so for 25  years and yes I have used math more than a few times in that pursuit.

Our differences, you and me, are that you only see it as a math problem.  I see it as a release from my primary vocation's/retirement math problems.  Do I use math when I play VP, yes, is it my sole concern NO.  Enjoy the game as you see it but don't presuppose that you have a lock on knowledge and are predisposed to put others that see it differently, down.

When you get older you will see that others have a perspective that should not be trifled with!!!  To do so is insulting, but hey, maybe that is where we differ. I tend to build up others and save my vitriol for people who appear pompous and who attempt to put themselves above others.
 
I don't see you saving much vitriol.

Please respond, I have hope that you will show a better side of yourself than the current display.  Lastly, a comment that I hear from my friends a lot is that they appreciated the fact that I always stated things honestly to them even when we disagreed or the words were tough. 
 
All I have done is respond with factual information. You appear to have taken these facts as an insult. That is all in your mind. I find it interesting that you have no examples to support your claims. Maybe that should tell you something.