Understanding casino math

[Carcounter]

Yes, the bad. Was up for the year until the last 2 trips to Borgata playing .50 SDB. Now down $1,300 for the year.

[notes1]

Yes, the bad. Was up for the year until the last 2 trips to Borgata playing .50 SDB. Now down $1,300 for the year.
 CC, feel your pain, no one likes to lose, but we are playing a game where the math tells us that over the long run, we are going to lose. i give you credit for detailing both the good and the bad. are your losses within your budget? did you receive entertainment value that reflects your loss? if the answer to these questions is no, then you need to consider making adjustments, just like many others on this forum have done. let's remember, eating out is a negative expectation, no one gives you meal for free. going to a concert, a ballgame, playing a round of golf or any other event one spends their entertainment dollar at, is also a negative expectation occurence. I/M/O, the question is always the same, are you getting an appropriate value for what you spend you money on. on a personal note, the wife and i quit our country club after 27 years. we just were not using the place like we used to, the value was lost. i never pay more than $25k for a car, but for others, it is worth spending more. that is their choice. as long as one spends their own money, is not looking for someone else to cover them if they make a bad decision, that is freedom. we all need to understand that each player is different. some have more/less money to play with, some like/dislike certain VP games, etc. while playing a wild card game, less than max coins or JOB may be fine for some, not everyone agrees. for some losing $10k seems way out of line, for others, it is a drop in the bucket. most are just trying to help others and pass on their experiences but everyone is not in the same situation or has the same goals. 

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=notes1]I/M/O, the question is always the same, are you getting an appropriate value for what you spend you money on.[/quote]Everything is relative.  If some billionaire loses a million dollars a year gambling and thinks he got his money's worth, that's fine with me. Someone has to pay the casinos overhead or we will all be back to shooting craps in the alley. (Just kidding!) 

[Mr.Dawes]

[quote=ko king]After a while I heard him say "finally", he had hit quad Aces w/kicker
for $10K. I said good for you and wasn't a bit surprised when he said he
had been playing the same machine for about 8 hours and after that hit
he was still $2K down for the day.As yes, the old DDB big hit routine. I see this all the time and I still can't understand why so many seemingly knowledgeably people play DDB.  This game is impossible to beat for longer than a few days at a time.  It is totally brutal on your bankroll and there is no way you are ever going to recoup your losses long term.  To each his own I guess...


[/QUOTE]For 20 plus years my casino trips were sporadic and my play covered table games, slots and video poker. My average video poker play was around 30 minutes to an hour, enough time to get a feel for different games but not nearly enough to learn strategy. Over the last few years I found myself playing more video poker and finally last summer switched to video poker only. I chose to learn DDB because I found it to be a good balance between the stability of JoB and the excitement of games like TDB. I have not personally been bothered by the swings but I am only a quarter player.I am still new at only 37,000 hands played since last August and here are the swings that I have recorded. At 11,000 hands I was $1,100 ahead. At 18,000 hands I was back to even. For the next 15,000 hands I fluctuated between $450 up and $230 down. And through the last 4,000 hands I am $1,350 ahead.So, even through this statistically small number of hands I have definitely experience a lot of variance I am not bothered by it. I think a good comparison would be investing in something like Treasury note or a bank CD vs. the stock market.

[FloridaPhil]

Mr. Dawes, you are playing within your bankroll and obviously have good skills and self control.  I have a personal problem that causes me to go for the "Big Score" and play above my bankroll.   I have been very lucky and so far have gotten away with a lot.  My video poker bankroll is currently at a point where I can play max coin quarter Deuces Wild basically forever.   I have nothing against DDB, but for some reason those long waits and big hits cause me all kinds of problems.  I don't think I'm alone in this. 

[notes1]

Mr. Dawes, you are playing within your bankroll and obviously have good skills and self control.  I have a personal problem that causes me to go for the "Big Score" and play above my bankroll.   I have been very lucky and so far have gotten away with a lot.  My video poker bankroll is currently at a point where I can play max coin quarter Deuces Wild basically forever.   I have nothing against DDB, but for some reason those long waits and big hits cause me all kinds of problems.  I don't think I'm alone in this. 

 while i do see a number if folks playing wild card games and even more playing less than max coins,i do believe the game of choice at this point, for the majority is max coin DDB.

[Mr.Dawes]

Which version of Deuces Wild do you play? I had always thought that there were no good DW pay tables at the casinos in my area, but I recently found one that has quarter Airport Deuces.I am considered learning this game because of the lower variance. My thinking is that if I split my play between these two games the average variance would be around 34 and may provide a good mixture of excitement and stability.

[FloridaPhil]

I only play traditional single line deuces wild.  The machines I play have a 98.9% payback at max coins. I try not to play any Deuces Wild game that pays less than 4 coins for a full house, four coins for a four-of-a-kind and 125 coins for a wild royal. The casino where I play weekly has this pay schedule on only three machines.  The rest pay 100 coins for a wild royal. We love playing in Blackhawk Colorado where NSU deuces is common.  I have never seen the so called full pay deuces wild, but I don't play in Vegas. We will be in Reno this November and I'm going to look for it.Deuces Wild seems to be a lot more predictable than most of the other games.  I tend to raise my bet slightly if I get ahead and I've been able to stay ahead of the odds pretty well so far.   I'm not recommending this strategy as a cure all, but it seems to work for me.

[Mr.Dawes]

Thanks FloridaPhil. Airport Deuces meets your requirements of 125 for Wild Royal and 4 to 1 for a full house. This particular casino also has a progressive royal on these machines.The 125 payout for a Wild Royal is half of a 5 through Kings 4 of a kind on DDB, which I have been hitting at a rate of about 1 per 450 hands. In your experience how often do you hit the wild Royal.thanks

[Vman96]

I am grateful for the strategy as well and follow it closely. There is one exception for me on a Deuces Wild game playing 25/15/9/4/4/3/2/1. I will not go for inside straights without a deuce most of the time. I know this is against the rules, but I would rather take a shot at a new hand and once in awhile hit something good like dealt deuces on the draw, a wild royal or similar. Is there anyone else out there that on this game will not go for an inside straight without a deuce showing? Other than that, I follow the strategy to the letter.

Assuming playing perfectly otherwise and assuming a random, equally likely deck, never holding the inside straight drops the return from 98.91% to 98.83%. That play unfortunately comes up a lot leading to that much of a dent. I don't like making the inside straight hold either, but you obviously knew that I would.