VP plans for 2016

[olds442jetaway]

I am seeing the 4 to a Royal just about average at Mohegan Sun or about 2 per session. I am just not connecting. You probably remember from earlier posts that I have had 2 over 500k hands without Royals in the last 3 years. This year I am now approaching 200k. I just think that long term results in vp can mean really long term or even approaching infinity. Your seeing so many 4 to a royals is as wacky as me not getting them in so many hands. Let's just hope the machines are on the up and up. Borrowing from Fla Phil again in vp...." anything can and will happen ". Edited to add.....vp survival this year is hinging on discipline which I am still working on and a very mild Martingale Clone with my progression up so I will be even when one of the premium hands hits. I am not counting on the Royals at all and you can see why, but I am surviving because for example on Airport Deuces if I lose a thousand coins at bet 5, hitting the quad deuces after that won't even get me even. I have to raise my bet to 6 and go from there and re calculate when hitting at bet 6 won't get me even either. So far, playing this way for 2016, hasn't stung me, but I'm sure it will at some point. What I have to do though if I run out of time in a session is remember where I left off and on my next session start there. Otherwise, I will still be behind the 8 ball when the quad deuces hit. The good part will be when and if the Royal hits, I may hit it with a bet that is over 5 coins. This will only work of course in a casino that lets you bet more than 5 which Mohegan Sun does. Otherwise, you would have to change denomination and that makes everything more complicated and expensive.

[onemoretry]

It seems that players are much more likely to cash in when merely dealt three to a RF. My small sample size over the past fourteen months registers all three hits in those situations. But having just won a grand, I'm not pounding sand.
I once saw a chart somewhere on line that showed the various routes to a royal, and their relative frequencies.

The most frequent route is dealt three parts, and draw the other two. Dealt three and draw two happens more often than dealt four and draw one not because of better hit frequency (at 1 in 1081 vs. 1 in 47 that's not going to happen), but because you're dealt three to the royal about 30 times more often than four to the royal.

I don't really care how they come, as long as they keep coming.

[FloridaPhil]

If you play max coins all the time, Royals are a necessity.  It's the only reason to play max coins on a negative game, otherwise why waste the money?  I'm playing max coins these day and haven't hit a royal this year, so I'm significantly down.  If I don't hit one or more this year I will lose some money.  That's the risk you take and I'm OK with it.  When I was playing CS, royals didn't matter unless I hit one at max coins which made me extremely happy. Bob Dancer and some others think CS is a joke.  They're entitled to their opinions, I disagree.  If you must play negative games, it works and the math proves this out.  I gave up CS because I was constantly switching from max coins to CS, which gave me the worst of both worlds.  I'm convinced that if I went back to exclusively playing quarter CS I would return to profitability or at least breaking even.   The progressive betting strategy of CS coupled with the streakiness of DW overcame the negative game odds for three years straight.  Unfortunately, playing single coin quarter CS eventually bored me and I went back to playing max coins.Unless you're a professional with the skills, opportunities and discipline it takes to be profitable, there is a cost to play this game.  The only question then is how much do you want to pay...

[FAA]

Very insightful as usual. I play small and slow. CS is a dangerous game within the game. All this gear shifting and still more likely than not to get short changed on the RF. I pulled it off yesterday because I raised my max percentage bets to about 40%. I hate to even give up $19 with a two coin quad hit. I was so cynical about even witnessing a Bally's RF. This month was to be my swan song there. Now there is such good will and gratitude. Strike up the band!

[FAA]

I do not care how they come either. What the heck. Just hand me the check. Having said that, yesterday's hearts model is particularly striking. Hearts afire! Six weeks overdue for Valentine's Day. But all is forgiven. Diamonds would also be visually appealing. My camera will be poised to create the memory.

[wildman49]

Bob Dancer and some others think CS is a joke.  They're entitled to their opinions, I disagree.  If you must play negative games, it works and the math proves this out.  I gave up CS because I was constantly switching from max coins to CS, which gave me the worst of both worlds.  I'm convinced that if I went back to exclusively playing quarter CS I would return to profitability or at least breaking even.   The progressive betting strategy of CS coupled with the streakiness of DW overcame the negative game odds for three years straight. 
















It's been 5 months since I went back to max betting and have held my own still in the black for the year. Really been thinking about going back to CS. The swings in bankroll are hard to take for me. My comps have not gone up much to really warrant the max betting. Really been lucky the royals have been coming in or I would be down big this year. CS works there is no doubt about it, if you have played it for long enough you know it works  as advertised. I love the max royals but there don't  seem to be much in between them. Even the 4 deuce hits seem to be gone. What to do. We wife and I are headed out to the casino and am going to play CS. It's time.

[FAA]

If it's been feast or famine, just hunker down and conserve. There is a ton of self generated waste with the Max Strategy, enough to keep an AC soup kitchen in business for a while. Of course, this is heavily promoted by casinos on the slot side with all the jackpot emphasis. We're hip to their hustle.

[olds442jetaway]

This has worked for me for 2016 and with only one Royal in Jan and about 175k hands since that one without a Royal. It is kind of the reverse of CS and is very hard to stick to because you only bet the amount you need to be even playing airport deuces if quad deuce hit. I suppose with a really sizeable bankroll, you could and should start with 5 coins. Otherwise, most if not all of the day, you will just be betting one. Since quad deuce is 200 for one, you would need to lose that 200 amount before advancing your bet to bet 2. If you hit something good, but not quad deuces where you may now have lost only 175 coins, you should lower your bet back to bet 1. Eventually, playing this way will require a bet so high you will not want to make it, so I have a cutoff of a max 400- loss in a session. So far, playing this way about 150k hands, I have not had to go home broke. The most difficult part is keeping your discipline and mine has failed in at least 3 different sessions where I got bored and tried something else that didn't work. In that sense, it is similar to cs because you can get really bored playing it. Like CS, it does not work well on job because job relies on many quads close together or the Royal. Anyway, easy enough to practice on this site. The only reason I brought it up is that is has saved my a.. so far for 2016 and the quad deuces will eventually come in where the Royal may not for the better part of your year.

[wildman49]

Well played cheap starting with $20 in comps had it up to $175, left up $60. Played the 20 coin machines, 5 nickels max to 20 coins as to keep the 4000 coin royal if hit.Hit 2 inside SF, missed 2 four to the royals imagine that.  Wife played $2.50 bet left up $1200.

[olds442jetaway]

That is a good outing in my book. Funny, you mentioned the inside SF draws. I have been connecting with them lately even without a deuce and of course missing my 1 card Royal draws as well. I know it is jut perception, and your memory playing tricks on you, but so often the card you need for the Royal shows up as the first card on the next dealt hand. I have cut way back playing job because the quads are just too far apart lately and I am tired of hitting quad deuces on job. That has happened in 3 out of the last 4 sessions and one time job hit quad deuces twice. Always nice when that free play turns into winnings.