casino integrity

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=onemoretry] [QUOTE=gregorio]
Seems to me the technology involved in  producing a new generation of  RNGs is making them spit out numbers in a much more "random" fashion thus making premium hands harder to obtain.
How does having the random numbers "more random", if that, in fact, is the case, make it harder to catch premium hands?[/QUOTE]
It's either random or it's not. If it is influenced in any way, even to the very slightest degree, it is not random. Otherwise, random is random.[/QUOTE]
Two thoughts: (1) Nothing that Man creates can be perfectly random. There is a pattern to everything that is man-made, including an RNG. Continuous shuffling and string re-seeding, which is common in today's machines, helps to ensure that a pattern can not be detected. You can view this as an 'increase' in randomness.
(2) There are more 'bad' draws than 'good' draws for any given VP hand, even the initial deal. Finding that one card to fill four to the royal is a 1 in 47 chance in a 'static' deck, much less one that is continuously changing card order. That said, the increase in speed and string re-seeding increases the probability that a 'bad' draw is the one available when you hit that deal/draw button.

Let's face it, folks - the casino has the edge big time in VP. Enjoy the wins when you get them.

[DougJ]

Answering the OP's question: I have been playing VP for about ten years. In that time, I had mostly losing years at VP . . . until this year. My denomination and games played have not changed, but for whatever reason, I have had phenomenal luck this year.

[notes1]

Just got back from quick gambling trip to Cherokee. Lots of interesting comments; I am not sure how having a game being 'more' random is bad. I would prefer random to fixed. Tedlark, agree, to compare results over time, one needs to compare same game/same denomination. I would be interested, have your own vp results change over the past 5 years? pokerpokerpoker, good point, many newer games have greater swings in results and need  a larger bankroll to play, such as TDB. You also mentioned the lowered paytables. May be more important than i have thought. If one were to play 300 hands per hour. play for 10 hours, how many full houses would they have? i have no idea, but if it were 100 and the paytable was 10 credits less for each, that would be 1000 lost credits.    It has been my experience the difference between a winning/breakeven and a losing vp trip comes down to just a few hands. Did one get a couple of premium hands or not. Pretend you own a casino, you bulit it in the 80's, 90's or early 2000's. You are making money, business is good. Then the great recession comes along and business drops, while at the same time, more casinos are opening. You have cut costs, reduced comps and business is still hurting and you are losing money. This is exactly what happened in many mature markets. Are you not tempted to try anything?    

[Lucky Larry]

Just got back from quick gambling trip to Cherokee. Lots of interesting comments; I am not sure how having a game being 'more' random is bad. I would prefer random to fixed. Tedlark, agree, to compare results over time, one needs to compare same game/same denomination. I would be interested, have your own vp results change over the past 5 years? pokerpokerpoker, good point, many newer games have greater swings in results and need  a larger bankroll to play, such as TDB. You also mentioned the lowered paytables. May be more important than i have thought. If one were to play 300 hands per hour. play for 10 hours, how many full houses would they have? i have no idea, but if it were 100 and the paytable was 10 credits less for each, that would be 1000 lost credits.    It has been my experience the difference between a winning/breakeven and a losing vp trip comes down to just a few hands. Did one get a couple of premium hands or not. Pretend you own a casino, you bulit it in the 80's, 90's or early 2000's. You are making money, business is good. Then the great recession comes along and business drops, while at the same time, more casinos are opening. You have cut costs, reduced comps and business is still hurting and you are losing money. This is exactly what happened in many mature markets. Are you not tempted to try anything?    

Catching those few paying hands is much like the stock market - the key is being "in the game" on those few days of big gains. Miss them and you lose a substantial amount of potential gain. With VP however, the long-term is generally a loss.

The most expensive part of on-going operations are probably "personnel costs" like with most businesses. Reducing those creates a big offset/profit. Reduce security, slot attendants, operations and staff, hotel staff, health insurance costs, etc. and save money.

IMO, expansion and consolidation of the casino market is having a big impact on profits. Big hedge funds/corporations can buy out the smaller market casinos/corporations by increasing their debt. At the same time the pie is being divided into more pieces as more states approve gambling. I think the next 15-20 years are going to be very interesting for the gambling sector. Incomes are going down creating less discretionary money for many people. While at the high end more discretionary/leisure money is available but will it be spent on gambling.

[notes1]

Lucky Larry, as a financial advisor for the past nearly 30 years, I found your analogy between vp and the stock market interesting. I am not allowed to say much, but, one has a proven history of losing you money, while the other can have much different historical result.  I do think your perspective on the eceonomy to be spot on, there has never been greater wealth disperity.  I think what i would really like to see is a WALMART/COSTCO type of casino. No frills, no spas, forget all the high end stuff and just a safe, clean gambling hall that offers the best odds for those who enjoy the entertainment that casinos can offer.  

[DaBurglar]

I love this thread.....I like the walmart concept/analogy, since I personally only really care about two types of comps/givebacks:   Free rooms and maybe some free play, everything else I could care less about which is why I like to spread my play around just enought o ensure free romms from many different casinos in order to be able to string together extended stays of a week or more with comp'd rooming.     Free food to me is pointless since I only like to eat what I want to eat when I want it, and having to feel "obligated" to eat something or somehwere just because its "free" and has a set expiration date is annoying.    Just give me my room and some free play and I am set....The economic factor(s) are unavoidable....the fact that this country has seen such drastic and dramatic wealth stratification witht he uber rich becoming even more wealthier while the other 99% run or place or fall behind, this is killing many industries including casinos, and it is obvious why,    Which is mind boggling to me that the gaming industry does not support more liberal left-leaning candidates, who favor income redistribution!    Seriously folks, having wleaht concentrated in the hands of a few is VERY VERY bad for gaming.In the last 5 years, MOST casino players have NOT experienced any significant wins.....if you discount the very HUGE, exceptional jackpots (like billiejoe's incredible 72K and 64K jackpots each), the picture becomes even worse.     As one poster pointed out, the days over being able to play for many hours on a 200 dollar bankroll on a 9/6 JOB machine are gone.   Even if you find a 9/6 JOB game, the new software, faster chips and hyper shuffle with string re-seeding seems to make this uber-randomness work in the casino's favor BEYOND the expected level.    WHy this is the case, and why we continue to tolerate it are the real issues we should address!

[BillyJoe]

Maybe we can convince them to sell us one of those machines, so we can rip it apart and discover how it REALLY works..

Trump Entertainment wants to sell used slot machines

Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc. has asked bankruptcy court for permission to sell 353 slot machines from its closed Trump Plaza casino. Trump plans to sell the machines for $146,650 to Patriot Gaming & Electronics Inc., a company that distributes previously-owned slot machines. Bloomberg Businessweek (10/27)

[BillyJoe]

if you discount the very HUGE, exceptional jackpots (like billiejoe's incredible 72K and 64K jackpots each), the picture becomes even worse.
But, DB, you really CAN'T discount a big win, since it is a huge part of the equation for overall return.

"You have to be in it to win it" someone once told me (probably when I was 4 ). Although it may seem disproportionate to other wins, it you are playing $20 or $30 a hand, those big wins need to be attainable.   

[DaBurglar]

[QUOTE=DaBurglar] if you discount the very HUGE, exceptional jackpots (like billiejoe's incredible 72K and 64K jackpots each), the picture becomes even worse.
But, DB, you really CAN'T discount a big win, since it is a huge part of the equation for overall return.

"You have to be in it to win it" someone once told me (probably when I was 4 ). Although it may seem disproportionate to other wins, it you are playing $20 or $30 a hand, those big wins need to be attainable.    [/QUOTE]oh I know I know, I hear ya.....its all important especially for you obviously......but what my point is, and the point of this thread,  the OVERALL average picture of how Video Poker is playing out is definitely sliding (or has slid) against us.....Let me put it another way:   what we are really talking about here is the infamous "DUD rate"   or how many hands turn out to be NON value/non paying  in the average session.In true normal stat expectancy, we should see 55% Dud/dead/nonpaying hands in our sessions......this we have known for a long time.      I have bellyached a great deal about what I have encountered in AC since 2010 or so, namely dud rates that CONSISTENTLY run around 65% or even HIGHER!!!    it is atrocious, and obviously has little if anything to do with the infamous "paytable" argument.       I have encountered this horrible dud rate consistently on a number of machines of various paytable settings (and type of game, namely JOB, DDB, BP, Deuces  etc)Now of course, I have hit some royals and other premium hands, but nor nearly enough to compensate for the overall DUDS that kept coming my way.....and as I reported. many of my friends and family members who are also video poker players report almost identical results, albeit with one or two exceptions out of perhaps 15 people.   So we all can still hit that miracle BIG winner like you did, but it is what keeps happening the rest of the time......To put it even another way.......IF the VP machines in a certain casino are set to pay 94 to 95% when taken together as a group, we players do not seem to even be close to THAT figure, which we all consider a lousy paytable when talking in terms of a BOB DANCEResque analysis of VP.     Why are we not even able to see returns of 90% or so with our bankrolls???    Why are we losing at the rate we are and as fast as we are???   It's like I said, Vido Poker seems to have been "SLOTTIFIED"

[onemoretry]

That said, the increase in speed and string re-seeding increases the probability that a 'bad' draw is the one available when you hit that deal/draw button.

I'm not so sure about that one!   What difference does it make if the cards are whizzing by at millions per second, or one every five minutes? If you're trying to fill a royal on a one card draw, it's a 1 in 47 shot, period.