Gambler's Lock Box

[olds442jetaway]

Go for it Phil. Grab what you can while things are working well. That is what I am trying to do as described below. One thing I've learned about vp if nothing else and especially about deuces wild. Those deuces do go in runs. Short term may be more than just a few minutes or even a few sessions and long term may be longer than any of us could imagine. I am going to keep playing as described below for now, but am trying to come up with an approximate formula to play at higher bet levels when being dealt at least 1 deuce and being dealt at least one deuce again not too far apart on a subsequent hand. Also I'm considering upping the bet level even more if 2 or 3 deuces are dealt. This test is in the infancy yet, but I know we both get a feel for what I am talking about. There are several warning signs in the deuces wild game to watch for. I bet Phil, you are already aware of these. Being dealt 2 pair without a deuce too many times close together. Being dealt pairs without at least 1 deuce close together and usually not connecting on the draw. Being dealt 2 deuces and almost always just ending up with 3 of a kind at the end of the hand. One more good sign on this game. Toss everything and end up with a really good hand like 5 of a kind or being dealt 3 of a kind with 1 deuce to start the hand. What I need to get a better handle on is the pattern frequencies. The experts will say all of this in nonsense. The games are totally random and past results mean nothing. That in itself is true, but until you experience these patterns yourself over and over again whether good or bad, you will never get a real feel for the game. I prefer to think there is order and repetition in chaos and randomness.

Edited to add...most will doubt most if not all of the above and I can understand why. I have 1 question then. How do you explain 1.2 million hands played at least half of which would trigger a W-2G on a Royal or other premium hand hit and only receiving 2 W-2Gs for the entire year? Of those 2 received, both were right around the 1200 criteria. To top it off, those 2 were just 2 days apart and both on the same machine.

[FloridaPhil]

Playing Deuces is like cruising on the ocean in a storm, you go down the wave for a while then up to the top and back down again. Anywhere along the cruise a quad deuce or a royal happens, which I guess is like getting hit by lightning....  I have always felt there must be a way to capitalize on these streaks.  This was the theory behind CS.  Unfortunately, CS has a flaw in that losing the royal flush bonus is too costly long term.   The lock box doesn't change the game one bit, it does change the way you manage your money.  I'm trying to get a handle on why this works.  So far I'm not sure.  All I know is it's working and working well.   It could be that I hit a lucky spell.  Not hitting a quad deuce or a royal in 8,000 hands is not uncommon.  Breaking even while this is happening is unlikely.  Something is obviously happening here.I wouldn't worry too much about what other players think.  Everyone has their own agenda and Bob Dancer has a business to protect.  He strikes out at anyone who disagrees with him because his cash flow depends upon players idolizing him.  I don't have a problem with this, but I do wish he would tone down his attacks.  As recreational players we have the right to our own opinions and to discuss any options we want to discuss.  Attacking us all the time is not productive and makes him look like a bully.   Maybe he should run for president?  He's got the Trump persona down pat. 

[FAA]

To play about 3.5 hours of DW without one of the top two hands and emerge with $100 profit is fantastic. I'd be deep in the hole. Taking box today to keep whatever Casino 1 profits I derive. This whole go home even jive mentality just does not serve me well. I value the dollars more than the additional play.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]To play about 3.5 hours of DW without one of the top two hands and emerge with $100 profit is fantastic.[/quote]Actually I've played for about 8 hours total with the box so far.Establish a low cash out limit for whatever denomination you are working with.  The $50 rule seems to work best with max coin quarters and 50 cents.   With 1,000 quarters you should be able to play for a couple of hours without excessive damage if you do not under any circumstances play any of your white tickets.  It's harder than most people think.  I would be curious to see how this works for other players.

[onemoretry]

I have 1 question then. How do you explain 1.2 million hands played at least half of which would trigger a W-2G on a Royal or other premium hand hit and only receiving 2 W-2Gs for the entire year?
My impression has been that most of your play has been on lower denomination games, i.e., nickels, dimes and quarters. I do not recall very much mention in your posts of higher denomination play (admittedly, I am going on recollection only, and have not looked back at previous posts).

You are indicating that a significant portion of your play is the equivalent of 50c denomination and higher?

[FAA]

Well, my subconscious is not committed to the lock box yet. Upon arrival today I checked my bag, with the box inside! Luckily it didn't cost me my trifling $32 win. I tried a $40 cash out rule with max coin quarter JOB. It was much easier running up points on 9/6 dollar JOB for the five minutes I allowed myself on that machine. I think that would be a fine option for my FP, though.

[olds442jetaway]

[QUOTE=olds442jetaway] I have 1 question then. How do you explain 1.2 million hands played at least half of which would trigger a W-2G on a Royal or other premium hand hit and only receiving 2 W-2Gs for the entire year?
My impression has been that most of your play has been on lower denomination games, i.e., nickels, dimes and quarters. I do not recall very much mention in your posts of higher denomination play (admittedly, I am going on recollection only, and have not looked back at previous posts).

You are indicating that a significant portion of your play is the equivalent of 50c denomination and higher?

[/QUOTE]

     This year, I do have a considerable amount of play on lower denomination tables and lower odds. However, the last 2 years, over 50% would have been at 6 quarters or higher and in fact up to 25 quarters at some point in nearly every session. That is how I racked up 50k in losses in each of the last 2 years. Those have been posted about many times. The lack of Royals alone accounts for about 20k or more of the 100k loss for the last 2 years. I also posted a few times on how my results ended up around 95% which is now you get to the negative 100k number. Without repeating all of the detail, 1 or 2 percent due to return tables, 2 percent due the royals and the rest due to crazy play of one type or another. Coin in for those 2 years was in the 2.2M range for the 2014 and 2015 years. Just not worth giving up a couple of new cars, and a nice chunk down on a vacation home or a major makeover on our own home. I expected to lose about 10k in each of the years not 50k each, but that is what happened. They won't get me again like that. That is for sure. Edited to add....My Martingale Clone method which is/was my preferred method of play begins or began at 5 quarters and many times in the session, remained at the 8-16 quarter level for hours at a time. I still use it, but am using it on low denomination machines and on 3-9 lines. I have greater flexibility and the highers bets are now in the buck fifty range instead of ten buck range.

[Bobbi]

I have a small hidden compartment in my wallet - I consider that my lockbox.. However it doesn't have a lock and doesn't work so good. My true lockbox is when I run out of cash and hit the limit on the atm....

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Bobbi]I have a small hidden compartment in my wallet - I consider that my
lockbox.. However it doesn't have a lock and doesn't work so good.[/quote]I have one of those too, but the little mathematician in my head kept telling me the game owed me a jackpot.  Unfortunately, the RNG doesn't read math books, so I had to go with the real thing.  I threw my ATM card away a long time ago. When I'm out of cash, I'm gone.

[FAA]

the little mathematician in my head kept telling me the game owed me a jackpot.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I always get that message regarding quads. Yesterday I sat at a machine like a dissatisfied customer for $550 coin in and almost two hours for that quad. So what happens? To conserve cash at the end I went two coin. I was dealt a JOB quad fours. Lucky the seats are so comfortable with screen cards almost twice the size as Bally's. I saved some eye strain and stress. Meanwhile a guy two seats away hits a quad then busts, then shifts next to me for another quad. I had won $65 at craps next door, which took some edge off the frustration.