MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

Fidelity only charges a fee of a dollar to sell the CD if you change your mind on the secondary market.

Yes, nice feature, although you may not like the secondary market price.

That was a bubble rally from 7t the FED dumped in the economy, not going to see that again any time soon

Does it concern you that everyone in this thread is bearish?

[wildman49]

Fidelity only charges a fee of a dollar to sell the CD if you change your mind on the secondary market.

Yes, nice feature, although you may not like the secondary market price.

That was a bubble rally from 7t the FED dumped in the economy, not going to see that again any time soon

Does it concern you that everyone in this thread is bearish?

Not at all. I don't know how old you are, in 1982 I was 22 years old trying to buy my first house in a very bad economy, with mortgage rates sky high 15% plus. My friends all bought homes paying them big rates on a high borrowed amount. I op for a mobile home much lower amount borrowed at near their same 15% rate. I saved and saved working 2 jobs, the rates then came down and I built a house in 1987 with 30k down, I still live in the home today. My point is we got a long way to go from here years and years away from getting things under control. We might see rates 6-7% in 2 years if you think this is good for the market think again.

[olds442jetaway]

I have to agree. Even in 1974, the best mortgage rate was 9 percent. My wife and I were not going to stand for those rates and worse to come. She worked, I worked and ran a small business at the same time. We were fortunate enough to be able to pay off the house in 6 years. We had put 1/3 down also from working and saving like lunatics. The generations today aren’t used to this. It’s BNPL mentality, but get everything now including new cars. By the way, we are still in the same small home, but very lucky to have the beach down the street. I fear that down the road not too far, they will have maxed out their credit cards and bankruptcies will be going through the roof. I would not be surprised to be stuck with 4 to 6% inflation from here on out after the dust settles. Of course I do not put it past the administration to cook the books and figure inflation a different way to make themselves look better. I was 25 when we bought the house in 1974.

[dinghy]

During inflation, stocks can go up nominally while losing real value. 1965 to 1985:



Bond yields started at 4% and ultimately reached 16%.

Stocks had a couple of hiccups but went up overall.



And that's not including dividends.

I just don't think I have an edge trading the broad US market. It's neither expensive enough to short, nor cheap enough to buy.

[olds442jetaway]

Not that it matters, but I have a friend who is a multi millionaire several times over. He pays big bucks to a wealth management guy who puts him strictly in Blue Chips and growth stocks. He was thrilled to have returns of about 30 percent in each of the last three years. I do not like to give anybody financial advice, but last December, then again in January, I begged him to at least take some money off the table and eat the Capital Gains tax for 2022 if someone could not find a good legal shelter for him and or consider charity above his current offerings. ( Don’t know the detail and don’t ask. ). Anyway, he didn’t do it and of course is down so far I think around 20 percent for 2022. I don’t tell him I told you so, so we discuss other things like a bit of VP or other world events.

[wildman49]

I would not be surprised to be stuck with 4 to 6% inflation from here on out after the dust settles. Of course I do not put it past the administration to cook the books and figure inflation a different way to make themselves look better. I was 25 when we bought the house in 1974.

Yes 6% inflation is going to be the norm, but if someone in government don't get supply of oil, computer chips and so on, we are in a world of hurt and so far the current administration don't have a clue but play the blame game.

[wildman49]

During inflation, stocks can go up nominally while losing real value. 1965 to 1985:

This is not the 60s or 70s, there was no apple, google, Microsoft these 3 have seen their glory days, new tech will take hold, and over the next 5 years the end of the baby boomers will retire, millions more on fix income not consuming goods and services, we are at the all time stock market peak.

[olds442jetaway]

Speaking of which, just waiting for sqqq in mid to high 40s. One more bear market bounce should do it. Might catch it this week sometime. Wait a bit and see what the administration is cooking up in the way taxes on us and businesses even in this economy. I would be particularly concerned with the electric grids. They are pushing EVs to no end. That way they have captive audiences with no choice but to pay. Either for charging, fees, taxes, or all 3. I suspect all 3. They don’t want to grow too much mold on that Government printing press.

[wildman49]

Speaking of which, just waiting for sqqq in mid to high 40s. One more bear market bounce should do it.

I started an Sqqq position today, small but will add as we get to Fed metting, I think a full point coming not 3/4

[wildman49]

I also started a position in WEAT been reading the harvest not going well in Ukraine, if other areas in the world can't get needed grain am sure we (USA) will export more to help out and end up driving up prices.