Changing Machines?

[losemoney]

Frank or Shadowman, 1st time poster and very long time lurker or reader of these forums. I have a few questions to ask. Last year in Vegas playing 9/6 ddb poker in downtown, I caught 4 Royals and 2 AWAKS and other 4 OAKS and Straight Flushes by jumping from machine to machine, are you saying that I would have caught the same hands by playing on only 1 machine?  And Shadowman when you go to Vegas for 5 days do you play the same machine for 5 days?                                                                                             

[shadowman]

Frank or Shadowman, 1st time poster and very long time lurker or reader of these forums. I have a few questions to ask. Last year in Vegas playing 9/6 ddb poker in downtown, I caught 4 Royals and 2 AWAKS and other 4 OAKS and Straight Flushes by jumping from machine to machine, are you saying that I would have caught the same hands by playing on only 1 machine?  And Shadowman when you go to Vegas for 5 days do you play the same machine for 5 days?                                    
 If you would have done things differently you likely would have had different results. However, this is also true when you have lost. I assume you have lost in the past as well. Everything we do changes our results. Sometimes this works in our favor and other times it does not. I change machines now and then simply to keep sharp and at other times to avoid smoke or other distractions. Some times I've done well after changing and other times I've done poorly. If you are honest with yourself I'd bet you've experienced the same. Some days you change and change and still cannot win, yet, it's possible had you not changed you would have "caught 4 Royals and 2 AWAKS and other 4 OAKS and Straight Flushes". You'll never know. As for me, I spent my winters in Las Vegas for several years and I did play one single machine about 3 times a week, same machine almost every time since there were only 3 of this particular machine. I made a lot of money playing that machine but I lost more days than I won. However, over the years I hit many royals and other good winners. Hit two royals in less than 20 minutes one day.

[losemoney]

Thank you Shadowman for your quick response and you're right about losing more by playing such a negative game. Next time i will try to play more 10/7 db and stay longer on it. Again thank you.

[brmcc74]

We know they don't understand randomness, but why don't they???...??? For those that do understand it, it seems simple, almost second nature. For those that don't understand it, understanding appears completely beyond their reach. What is easy for one, should not be impossible for others. There's a lot going on here. More than any simple answer could ever explain.

~FK
[/QUOTE]                                                      For me, its not that I dont understand randomness. The very same theory although about randomness can have an adverse effect. Example= A player can play 1 million+ hands and not even get as much as a pair of jacks due to Randomness.  So with this fact, if a player is having a tough run, whats wrong or negative about switching to another random machine? I personally would rather someone jump around to different machines then to play the way that I see people playing, as far as strategy.

[Frank Kneeland]

Frank or Shadowman, 1st time poster and very long time lurker or reader of these forums. I have a few questions to ask. Last year in Vegas playing 9/6 ddb poker in downtown, I caught 4 Royals and 2 AWAKS and other 4 OAKS and Straight Flushes by jumping from machine to machine, are you saying that I would have caught the same hands by playing on only 1 machine?  And Shadowman when you go to Vegas for 5 days do you play the same machine for 5 days? Well Shadowman already hooked you up, but I have a little to add. It was my D&D night and I was off gaming.Check this out and see if you get how it relates to your question.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_shar ... lacySummed up: no useful information can be derived about your decision to play these machines in the manner you did, by looking at how you did; because the decision to play  took place before your results occurred. You have to go back in time mentally to before the results, and evaluate your decision making process without 20/20 hindsight as a very biased judge misleading you. The only way you could include results in your assement of your decision is if you knew you were going to get the things you did in advance of playing.Without precognition in play, results must be discarded. Just as in the sharp shooter fallacy, you don't get to draw the target after you have fired your rounds.~FK

[Frank Kneeland]

For me, its not that I dont understand randomness. The very same theory although about randomness can have an adverse effect. Example= A player can play 1 million+ hands and not even get as much as a pair of jacks due to Randomness.  So with this fact, if a player is having a tough run, whats wrong or negative about switching to another random machine? I personally would rather someone jump around to different machines then to play the way that I see people playing, as far as strategy. So I consulted with a clinical psychologist about the issue of machine changing and she had very interesting insight on the issue. Here's what she said.1. People like to feel in control.2. Since randomness goes against our natural desire to control our lives we take steps to alter our fate, even though we can't.3. If those steps are actually pointless, somewhere deep down our subconscious minds know this, and it creates something called cognitive dissonance.4. Then in an attempt to resolve this dissonance and feel alright about ourselves, we begin a process of justification and illusory introspection.5. Depending on the nature of our justifications it can lead to cognitive distortion and a never ending cycle of bad decisions, followed by more justifications, followed by even worse decisions.For you it might not be any big deal, for others it could be the tip of a very nasty ice-berg on a collision course with an ocean liner.cognitive dissonance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance illusory introspection: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Introspect ... ncognitive distortion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_distortionIt's far more complicated than I could put into anything short of a whole book.If you have done poorly on a machine, first you need to determine if it was due to strategy errors or anything within your control. If your bad results were simply due to random chance, then you have done nothing wrong and there is nothing that needs correcting. We are taught to learn from our mistakes and correct them. In gambling, this sociological programming hurts rather than helps. The real mistake is thinking that a bad run on a machine is a mistake, and anything that needs fixing.Here's a mnemonic you won't forget:As far as changing machines due to losses is concerned, the first step to curing the problem is admitting that you DON'T have one.Playing VP if you don't play accurate strategy is a mistake.Picking a low return game over a high return game is a mistakeRunning bad on any machine is just normal randomness and nothing that needs fixing.If it's not broken don't fix it. Sitting at a losing machine is not a problem, it's an expected part of any activity with a random component.I can think of nothing better to sum this up than the serenity prayer: Grant to us the serenity of mind to accept that which cannot be changed;
courage to change that which can be changed, and wisdom to know the one
from the other. ~ Reinhold Niebuhr~FK

[shadowman]

I think another factor that makes people want to move is the way our brains work. Our brains are big pattern matching machines. As a result they search for patterns that produce successful results. So, how does this influence us? When you sit down at a machine you will lose most of the time. This is the nature of VP. However, if we win our brains note that we won a short time after sitting down. So, we start to think that success is a factor of this short time on a machine. So, we try to reproduce this by changing machines. Of course, we still lose most of the time but we don't stay long on a machine where we lose. Eventually, we are successful again and once again we note we had only been on the machine a short time. This positive reinforcement then leads us to change again and again. We discount the times we lose because we conclude we hit a "cold machine".   We see others that do the same and also talk about hot and cold machines which reinforces this thinking as well. The whole business is self reinforcing. The key to stopping the behavior is understanding exactly how the machines operate. Only by accepting additional knowledge can we see our efforts are by and large fruitless. One final thought. Since it is possible to have the "wisdom to know one from the other", it would seem this wisdom would allow people to change machines even though they know it will provide no future benefit. I believe this knowledge eliminates any of the problems Frank mentioned. Or, to use another cliche ... knowledge is power.

[ravenbynight111]

 gambling is part smarts,skill,some luck like shadowmad says knowledge is power.I bet pro sports college and pro football anfd some college hoops and I am with a offshore casino and my local agent has about 65 players ,year in and  year out last year he had only 2 winners. In previous years he has had only one winner, that was me and I pick and chose who i bet on and very into geting as much info as possible. Same as playing video poker random or not i play 6 to 12 times a year and i win about an much as i do betting sports which is at 65% clip.So what works for me may not work for others. Like they say if its not broke do not fix it.

[MarySB]

I'm going to chime in here and hope I don't get in over my head. I have been under the assumption that to meet the % payback that the machine is stated as giving one " may" have to play XXX numbers of hands/deals. The numbers I see most often for XXX are from 40,000 to 1,000,000. This XXX number seems to vary (even if slightly) depending on who is writing or stating his opinion. I don't see how random comes into effect if I plan to play only 15 or 30  minutes or maybe even several hours. I also assume (yes! I am making several assumptions) that in order for randomness to be truely a factor that XXX number of hands will have to be played.  Now!  How many is XXX?  I have to assume (3rd assumption) that the numbers stated above are correct. I sure as heck am not going to play 40,000+ hands in a few hours. So! How does random effect me if I play to play for 30 minutes or 1 hours and then stop?
Secondly---I hope we can all agree (are most of us) that if we start to play and stay on the same machines for hours and hours (40,000 plus deals) that there will be up and down cycles. We all say that for certain games you must have a large bankroll--why? To get thru the downs. Now! If I decide to play beside you and I am going to play only for 30 minutes or a hour total and after 5-10 minutes of play I haven't done squat on my machine I don't see how random will payoff for me within the next half hour or so if I remain at the same machine. Random-Heck, I'm only playing for less than a hour. I just can not relate random and long term to playing 30 minutes here and there.
 
 I play VP at least one weekend every month in Vegas. I play 4 to 5 hours total each day. That 4-5 hours includes stops at 3 or more casinos. I like going to as many of my favorite casinos as possible within these 4-5 hours. As stated in another post I will change machines at the drop of a hat and will change casinos just as quick. I play "only" 10/7 DB. So I play only at casinos that offer 10/7.
 
What my point? Glad you asked. Speaking only about me and where/how I play I can not see how random relates to my play. Now if I ever decide to play at 1,000 hands per hour for 8-10 hours a day, me and random will surely meet.

[EDC1977]

  There's no reason to doubt the math. It's easy to think otherwise when you sit and play short periods and walk away empty. Too many professionals and mathematicians dissected this subject. Draw your own conclusions if you like. Visit any of the VP advice websites and compare notes. You'll see a set of numbers that are pretty close. I don't speak for anyone but myself however my math isn't anywhere near as proficient. I only see the numbers they posted and how similar they are. Why risk taking random out of RNG, especially with a poor economy.