Bizarro World 2023

[dinghy]

There isn't really any "due" in video poker. The fact that something hasn't happened in an extraordinary number of hands doesn't change its likelihood of occurring on the next one.

Big if true.

Everything in this thread would be wrong.

[olds442jetaway]

Caught this on the way out after lunch on the redraw. Ran a dash to the car after that

[olds442jetaway]

OMT is exactly correct of course as to the likelihood of the next event. I use the word due due in the context of probability which is totally different from odds of occurring on the next hand. I have found over the years if something is supposed to come out once every 5000 Hands and I have gone 40 or 50,000 hands without getting that something, it is quite likely that I will hit it in the next session, or very soon after that, but that would be probability, not odds. For instance, in jacks or better, the probability is roughly one chance in 8 you’ll get two pair by the end of the hand. However, if you are playing 4000 hands in a session, the probability of not getting 2 pair, in that entire session is next to 0. Most everyone knows this, I just mention it for any people new to the game.

[onemoretry]

I use the word due due in the context of probability which is totally different from odds of occurring on the next hand.

My understanding is that probabilities and odds are not totally different - they are just two different ways of expressing the likelihood of a particular outcome.

[dinghy]

My understanding is that probabilities and odds are not totally different - they are just two different ways of expressing the likelihood of a particular outcome.

A commendably Canadian reply .

[olds442jetaway]

[olds442jetaway]

Crazy stuff. The important thing is to grasp it which seems so simple yet mind boggling sometimes. For instance, I think I remember this old example from like 60 years ago. A box has 3 red balls and 7 green balls. The probability of picking a red one is .3. The odds however are just under ,43. You will pick a red ball 3 times, out of 10, but a green ball 7 times out of 10 so it won’t be a red ball 7 times. 3 divided by 7 is .428.

[OTABILL]

Glad you had a good trip.

[dinghy]

The probability of picking a red one is .3. The odds however are just under ,43.

Yes, two ways of expressing the same concept. In both cases, the math guides us to a precise value.

But precise values are nowhere to be found for vp events that are "due." All you can say is "quite likely" or "very soon after" -- because math rejects the concept.

[olds442jetaway]

I equate due with wanna, should, hope, etc. knowing that I cannot force or mandate a hand at any given moment. It just seems like I can sometimes.