When to play a progressive vs. normal machine?

[Eduardo]

The talk about progressives has gotten me interested to try one.
 
Let's say it's quarters and the progressive machines have lower pay tables than a the normal machines next door.  I know we could analyze heavily with the actual numbers based on expected return with the progressive compared to the lower pay tables. But first, say I didn't bring my calculator.
 
How high whould that progressive need to be before you decide to give it a whirl?
 
Also of course feel free to discuss the details since those will help me understand it. I'm guessing you look at the difference in the expected return on the pay table and then figure in the odds of a royal flush and multiply something by the progressive amount.
 
So, generally speaking when you walk in, what amount would entice you to play, and technically, when it is a sound decision?
 
I know the pay tables and game types will make this complicated but I look forward to your thoughts. Thanks!

[New2vp]

Eduardo, if you are talking about a Royal Flush progressive, you gain about 1/2 % in game EV for every increase of 1000 credits, even if you do not change any of your strategy plays for the increased value.  So, if you know the base game EV, it's fairly easy to know how the progressive will impact your overall expectations (even without a calculator).

[clwn2]

I know that there is a lot of math that goes into figuring this out.  For me, it depends on what your approach is.  Are you a professional player that has to analize every aspect to the finest decimal point or are you just an average player that wants to get a general idea if this is a good play or not.  Generally speaking, the pay schedules on progressives are worse than you would find on full pay or close to full pay machines.  This will usually make the play worse overall unless the progessive is really getting up there.  Other things I look at are:  How many machines are there in the progressive?  Many casinos attach a progressive to several banks of machines or more which makes it harder to hit.  Do I really intend on playing this progressive for long enough to have a chance at success?  How busy is it?  I could add to this list but this is basically what I ask myself when I am considering progressive play. 
I dislike progressives because I find myself losing track of my game plan sometimes when I play them.  Someone else always seems to hit the royal or quad or whatever I was shooting for.  Lots of times this happens after I have left and I always wonder if some smuck just walked up and POW hit it all on his first $20!  The opposite seems to happen when I am patient and look for the best pay schedules and relax and take it easy.  For some  reason I don't seem to have the same expectation with non-progressive machines.  With progressives, once there is a few more bucks up there to win, the race is on!!
 
That said, I usually play progressives have 8-10 machines and  have quad payouts attached.  If one or more of the quads are getting high ($50 or more above minimum)then I like my chances.  Again, not a specific mathamatical approach but I do have to have a reasonable expectation of making up the difference between a lower pay schedule and a higher reasonably attained payout.  Sorry folks, in most cases a Royal just is not in the forcast  of reasonable expectations.  However, since an Aces with a kicker has a cycle of less than half a Royal I can assume that I at least have a shot if I plan to spend a few hours playing.   If deuces is your game then your odds are even better.
 
Just my humble therory of course...
 
 

[shadowman]

I like a little finer detail on the progressive than was given by New2vp. I prefer to use a value of 400 credits = .2%. I guess this comes from playing a lot of quarter VP. The 400 credits is equal to $100, so for every $100 the progressive rises I add .2% to the payback.
 
Both of our numbers are derived from the fact that the RF normally pays about 2% of the overall payback. As you can see, a progressive needs to get pretty high to make a poor game positive. Even making strategy changes does not change this rule-of-thumb all that much. It's certainly sufficient for most of my decisions.
 

[Eduardo]

So if a quarter machine has (making these numbers up) a 99.8% payback, then there is a progressive with pay tables that would normally give 98.8% and the progressive is at $500, they would have about equal expected returns over all.  Is that right? 

[shadowman]

That is right, Eduardo. In fact, there is a progressive DB machine at Sam's Town which is 9-7 (instead of full pay 10-7) but starts the progressive off at $1500 instread of $1000. Works out to be around the same payback as full pay.

[jm002546]

The talk about progressives has gotten me interested to try one.
 
Let's say it's quarters and the progressive machines have lower pay tables than a the normal machines next door.  I know we could analyze heavily with the actual numbers based on expected return with the progressive compared to the lower pay tables. But first, say I didn't bring my calculator.
 
How high whould that progressive need to be before you decide to give it a whirl?
 
Also of course feel free to discuss the details since those will help me understand it. I'm guessing you look at the difference in the expected return on the pay table and then figure in the odds of a royal flush and multiply something by the progressive amount.
 
So, generally speaking when you walk in, what amount would entice you to play, and technically, when it is a sound decision?
 
I know the pay tables and game types will make this complicated but I look forward to your thoughts. Thanks!
  That leads to my prior comments about changing strategy.  Basically, the optimal or basic strategy is subject to continuous change at each progressive level. You can't take full advantage of the progressive without constant update of strategy.  Shadow, I was serious about when to hold Ah suited (deuces wild).  How can you know which category change is the most important?   Eduardo, the simplest thing is to look at % increase in the royal payout, adjust the % of payout that comes from the royal by that amount, then add the % increase to the basic machine payout.  This means you can play the same strategy and return the adjusted payout.  Say the royal contributes 2% towards payout, then at 1200 you have a 20% increase of 2%.  So you can add .4 to the base payout.

[valden]

Huh???

[Eduardo]

Just to make sure I'm doing this close to right... the Hilton looks like it has an 8/5 JOB progressive (97.3%).
 
So on quarters, I should wait for that to reach $1,350 and on dollars it should be $5,400 for a 100% EV?

[New2vp]

Just to make sure I'm doing this close to right... the Hilton looks like it has an 8/5 JOB progressive (97.3%).
 
So on quarters, I should wait for that to reach $1,350 and on dollars it should be $5,400 for a 100% EV?
 
That would be an additional 1400 credits for the royal flush.  Whether you use the rule-of-thumb that 1000 credits = 0.5%, 400 credits = 0.2%, 200 credits = 0.1% (They are all the same but different people I guess like to say it differently), the additional 1400 credits figures out to an extra 0.7%, getting you to 98.0% with this game.  [Actually, here you can add my figure for 1000 credits (0.5%) to Shadowman's figure for 400 credits (0.2%) to get to the additional 0.7%.]  And for this game at this level, the rule of thumb is "right on the money," equal to 0.70%. 
 
So, if you are happy playing a 98% game, then you have the right number.  If you want a higher %, then you will have to wait for a higher progressive figure or choose a different machine.
 
Evidently at the perfect-play level, making the few strategy changes will only increase the EV by another 0.038%.
 
Oh, now I see what you did in your calculation!!  The rule of thumb does indeed calculate to 5400 credits (2.7%/0.1% x 200 = 5400), but you need 5400 ADDITIONAL credits added to the base of 4000 credits for a royal in order to get a 100% game.  In this case 5400 + 4000 = 9400 credits will just about do it without any strategy changes over the base game.
 
Actually, 9426 is the number that you need ($2356.50 for a quarter machine or $9426 on a dollar machine) if you are not going to make any strategy changes from the base game.  If you can make the strategy changes  simply enough (by using VPFW, Frugal VP, or some other software), 100% EV is attained on an 8/5 Jacks machine at 8666 credits for the royal flush.  (You may be able to get to 100% with a lower royal flush payoff if you have some additional cash back from your play.)