The Path II

[FAA]

My last trip of the year was a larger loss than today’s win. My prior thread was threadbare. It is appropriate at this time to begin anew, with renewed purpose.

Superb Saturday. I played some Caesars quarter JOB as progressive was $1,145. I hit a quad after forty minutes, but lost lost $10. I hit dollar, winning $15 on $20 FP. Forty minutes later, I had gotten killed and was into two dollar BP play. Holding two Aces, I was dealt two for a $640 hit! I was so thrilled that I skipped my usual Harrah’s session. Lat trip’s fiasco was still all too fresh. I walked to Ocean. Food and drink deals were discontinued. I had a trio of pork sliders at another favorite. I broke even on more JOB play. Progressive now $1,152. From experience, I told a morning regular that it would be hit tomorrow, so no surprise. 88.5 TCs. Net Day: +$415.

[case]

You were playing a progressive but not max coin.

[FAA]

Not each and every hand, at least. Saving gene too ingrained, as my regular masochist readers know.

[applepear86]

You were playing a progressive but not max coin.

We all have different strategies. Some of us treat VP like a table game instead of a flat bet slot machine deal. I find it cheaper to lower my bet when the machine is going cold rather than keeping feeding 5 coins into a cold abyss. That also allows me to play at higher denoms when the cards go hot, as I didn't trash all my money on cold cards. That extra $150 won on the progressive can be quickly eaten up just from chasing cold streaks, especially when considering an RF is within 40,000 expected hands of probability

[onemoretry]

I find it cheaper to lower my bet when the machine is going cold rather than keeping feeding 5 coins into a cold abyss. That also allows me to play at higher denoms when the cards go hot

What is your magic formula for determining that a machine is "hot" or "cold", and how do you know when it's going to either "heat up" or "go cold"?

[olds442jetaway]

Fine day FAA

[case]

I have to start watching for hot and cold cards so I know when to play max coins.......

[applepear86]

I find it cheaper to lower my bet when the machine is going cold rather than keeping feeding 5 coins into a cold abyss. That also allows me to play at higher denoms when the cards go hot

What is your magic formula for determining that a machine is "hot" or "cold", and how do you know when it's going to either "heat up" or "go cold"?

On JOB or Bonus, when two pairs or higher are above expected probability for me, I go up. When it goes cold below expected probability, I go down. I use the notes app in my phone to keep track. I have my own formula for handling when it ranges by the even point. This method has saved me from what could have been a bad year. I could have been down thousands of dollars across all the casinos I go to instead of up. Sure, a Stanford mathematician could graph out how it will break down in the future, but as of now it works for me and generates positive results.

[onemoretry]

Wouldn't it make more "sense" to do the reverse, since a machine that has been producing results higher or lower than expected probability is "due" to go the other way?

[FAA]

AP, I actually created this thread, and my prior lengthy thread, for it to be about me and basically chronicle my trips for later evaluation. So can we minimize tiresome tangents? You can do you on any other thread.