How often does this happen?

[olds442jetaway]

Many VP players wonder, but do not know over time how often something happens. There is one very easy way to get the answer that takes less than a minute. Let’s say you want to know how often you have to wait in the long haul ( not short term ) to hit say a quad on JOB. Just google....Wizard of odds Jacks or Better video poker paytable....The site will come up and just scroll down to the paytable you are looking for. If is a 99.54 paytable, just divide the probability of the event which in this case is four of a kind into one and you will have your answer.
1 divided by .00236 = once every 424 hands in round numbers. I don’t have Bob Ds book, but my guess is the various paytables may be in it as well. If somebody knows, just add the info to this post.

[advantage playe]

one in 423.27 hands playing optimal strategy. I just looked it up at my win poker.

[onemoretry]

If you go to the Wizard's game analyzer, you can skip the division step, as the analyzer shows the frequency of all the possible outcomes.

[olds442jetaway]

Thanks OMT

[FAA]

Just remember that even if this probability shakes out on your trip, you will still be a loser if you increase your denomination halfway through. In my case, a flat bust. I hope that I can save such antics until five minutes before departure.

[onemoretry]

......you will still be a loser if you increase your denomination halfway through.

Not likely if you happen to hit a royal after upping the denomination.

[FAA]

Yep, that's the denomination motivation. But a spectacular flame out remains the most likely outcome.