Playing Hunches........

[aceswithakicker]

Hey everybody, just wondering how you all feel about playing hunches which go against perfect playing stategy?  I for one always stick to the strategy, but do find myself tempted to play on a hunch every once in a while.
 
For example, last weekend playing NSUD, I was dealt a wild Royal (10, J, Q, K, 2) worth 125.  Note, this was a single line game, otherwise I would have held it.  Anyway, I decided to go for it being I could always draw the Ace, another deuce, or make a straight or flush.  There's a big difference in 125 and 4000 credits. The strategy says to hold the wild Royal, but what would you do?
 
 

[pokeherguy]

Toss the 2 everytime, I would also toss the 2 on multi-line game. The last time I had this opportunity I was playing .25c ten play at max bet and I ended up with 2 royals and 2 straights and a flush. 

[New2vp]

Hey everybody, just wondering how you all feel about playing hunches which go against perfect playing stategy?  I for one always stick to the strategy, but do find myself tempted to play on a hunch every once in a while.
 
For example, last weekend playing NSUD, I was dealt a wild Royal (10, J, Q, K, 2) worth 125.  Note, this was a single line game, otherwise I would have held it.  Anyway, I decided to go for it being I could always draw the Ace, another deuce, or make a straight or flush.  There's a big difference in 125 and 4000 credits. The strategy says to hold the wild Royal, but what would you do?
 
 
 
You didn't say whether your move paid off...though I suppose that is not important for us to answer your question.
 
I guess you're supposed to do whatever makes you happiest.  If you are happier trying for the royal, then you should do that.  If you are happier keeping the higher expected value, then you should keep the 125 coins.
 
I do have a question as to whether or not this is a "hunch."  With a hunch, I would think that sometimes you have a feeling that something is going to happen and you go with that feeling and play a hand differently than you usually would play it.
 
If just going for the 5th card in the royal is what causes you to break with someone else's tabulation of holds with the highest expected value, then you are not playing a hunch, but just changing their strategy to your strategy:  when close to a royal, forget expected value and go for it.  (If you would only do this some of the time, then I agree that this is a hunch-play.)
 
I agree with you that as the number of lines on your game goes up, that it is increasingly practical to hold the wild royal, though you give up the less-than-2% chance of hitting multiple royals on 10-play as pokeherguy did.  And his is a much better story.
 
My answer to your question as to what I'd do if you haven't already guessed:  Take the 125 credits (unless the progressive jackpot for the royal is over 5300).  Though I'm boring and I agree that it's more exciting to go for it.

[aceswithakicker]

Thanks for chiming in.
Unfortunately my play fell into the 55.720% bracket of NOTHING!    But as you stated, it is much more exciting going for it when your chances are good.  And it doesn't get much better than drawing four to the royal as far as chances go.
 
I do normally play strictly to strategy, but sometimes "feel" or maybe "want" is a better word,  that a different play is required.  Maybe it isn't a hunch, but for lack of a better term..........
 

[rfonlymama]

I am much more likely to go for the royal the lower denomination I am playing.  I realize that should be the opposite probably!   If I'm playing dollars than I'm much more likely to take the $125/line than I would be quarters or fifty cents!  Hopefully I'll get that opportunity tonight as I'll hit Vegas around 9:00 pm!  YIPPEE!!!

[MikeA]

I am much more likely to go for the royal the lower denomination I am playing.  I realize that should be the opposite probably!   If I'm playing dollars than I'm much more likely to take the $125/line than I would be quarters or fifty cents!  Hopefully I'll get that opportunity tonight as I'll hit Vegas around 9:00 pm!  YIPPEE!!!Good Luck in Vegas! 

[New2vp]

I am much more likely to go for the royal the lower denomination I am playing.  I realize that should be the opposite probably!   If I'm playing dollars than I'm much more likely to take the $125/line than I would be quarters or fifty cents!  Hopefully I'll get that opportunity tonight as I'll hit Vegas around 9:00 pm!  YIPPEE!!!
 
It makes a lot of sense to me.  It costs a lot less for the "royal story" if you are only risking $30+ than $125.  Tonight, just go with all 5 cards dealt for the royal so you don't have any tough decisions!

[shadowman]

One problem many people face who go for these kind of holds is selective memory. They always remember the "hits" and ignore the "misses". So, my advice is don't listen to anyone who can't provide an overall statistical number for their results. There's a reason the strategy states holding the wild royal is better ... it will do better over time.
 
I have some experience going for the RF in this case with progressives that made it the correct play. I have NEVER hit a RF in this situation.  
 

[MikeA]

One problem many people face who go for these kind of holds is selective memory. They always remember the "hits" and ignore the "misses". So, my advice is don't listen to anyone who can't provide an overall statistical number for their results. There's a reason the strategy states holding the wild royal is better ... it will do better over time.
 
I have some experience going for the RF in this case with progressives that made it the correct play. I have NEVER hit a RF in this situation.  
 Aw Gee Shadowman, you take ALL the fun out of it!    Selective memory is the key though.  I don't recall hitting a Royal under those circumstances either, but I have hit while not "really" holding for it.  You know, hitting th jackpot when holding just an Ace and a suited Face.  Those hits are selective and always dangle the carrot out there when dealt 3RF with a high pair (obviously not talking DW here).The impulse is to go for it but the math overcomes.  Especially frustrating when the draw turns the two that would have made the RF.  But then as I know, the draw would not have likely been the same had I made the other choice.  Just laugh at myself and boogie on.

[jm002546]

One problem many people face who go for these kind of holds is selective memory. They always remember the "hits" and ignore the "misses". So, my advice is don't listen to anyone who can't provide an overall statistical number for their results. There's a reason the strategy states holding the wild royal is better ... it will do better over time.
 
I have some experience going for the RF in this case with progressives that made it the correct play. I have NEVER hit a RF in this situation.  
   Even personal experience of someone else should not affect your decision -just hitting one royal can skew the stats in their favor. That doesn't mean you should follow.  OTOH, deuces wild I sometimes hold 5k in lieu of 3w, even 5low, if I am in the middle of a "recent SHADOW" streak.  It only costs a few cents in EV-maybe none if the 4rf includes the ace.