Just an observation from public records!

[olds442jetaway]

I did Ace statistics, but am not a math major or anywhere close. Just a question. If public records show which they do that for both Ct Casinos the total Slot Hold year in and year out is between 8.1-8.3 percent in round numbers, is it really possible that things are totally random. Note Vp is lumped in with these numbers but not separated out. Shouldn’t there be spikes a percent or two in one direction or another on the Hold statistics?

[felix]

Olds, the return expectation over the long term slot and VP hold (a year) is a matter of math based on the slot and VP pay tables.
What is random is which outcomes will appear on a particular machine at a particular time. Thus, the results for a player playing a few hours per week over a year will be completely random, but the results for the casino, playing 24 hours a day 365 days per year will generally average out to expectation.
Both a large casino and a small casino can still generally average the expectation because even though the larger casino has many more players, it also has many more machines. An individual machine might not match the average over the course of the year, but the entire inventory on the floor will come close.
The math experts who create the return averages are pretty hard to beat. Casinos are almost always a good deal for stockholders/investors because, assuming expenses stay in line with the number of players, the operating return is guaranteed. Casinos that flop don't flop because of a poor return average --- they flop because of poor management (excess expense, marketing issues, location issues, declining patronage).

[olds442jetaway]

Thanks Felix. I was thinking that after I wrote it being that there are billions of hands played in the course of a year. I still wish they would separate out the return on video poker. That way I could see if it would come out to about 96 or 97% for the player or because people have no idea what they’re doing for the most part it would be more like 90% or worse.

[atomic2025]

Casinos are definitely aware of this, but they won't disclose it to the general public. However, why does it matter to you?

The returns of any specific video poker game aren't a secret; you just need to know which game you should play.

[TripleTriple]

Yes, in statistical parlance, you are ignoring/underestimating the effect of sample size on regression to the mean.
The overall hold will be, as you say, a combination of slots and VP. The only way you're going to see a YOY "spike" or change of multiple percent magnitude is if a large portion of the VP machines are pulled or if a large percentage of slot players switch to VP early in the year. Or, if the casino makes a drastic change in its' payout strategy (competition, as well as regulation limits this).
If you look at quarterly or monthly reports, you may see a significant blip in the numbers due to a huge progressive payout or several large hand pays, especially when comparing venues.
Of greater concern is the slow migration, or creep, towards higher hold (lower payback) over years, due to downgraded VP pay tables and proliferation of penny slots.
I too would be interested in the VP only numbers, though as atomic points out, it's much more important to know your own ev. You could find yourself playing a 99.9% machine at the casino with the lowest payback.

[olds442jetaway]

Just curious to see how dumb most VP players are. My guess pretty dumb or they would pull all the machines. I see people playing just like live poker with no regard for pay tables

[dinghy]

Just curious to see how dumb most VP players are. My guess pretty dumb or they would pull all the machines.

It's been discussed a few times at Wizard of Vegas, with input from industry insiders. Consensus seems to run around 2% difference between actual and optimal holds. Primary reason for the difference is strategy errors; short-coining has a smaller impact.

Seems to me if you're playing generic DDB which is the most popular, it's hard to make colossal mistakes. But other games and carnival add-ons can be trickier imo.

[atomic2025]

Just curious to see how dumb most VP players are. My guess pretty dumb or they would pull all the machines. I see people playing just like live poker with no regard for pay tables

Well, how do you define "dumb"?

To me, a person who plays perfectly on 9/6 DDB, for example, is still "dumb" if his/her overall return is less than 100%. However, someone who can't play perfectly but plays only basic strategy well and gets a 1.5% return from the slot club isn't.

[olds442jetaway]

I guess you could look at it that way. I was thinking more like someone playing a 96 percent machine and still making major strategy errors. I find it difficult to get 1.5 percent slot club awards around here. Last night I “ earned “ 100 in free play I haven’t used yet, but to get that I had to run 30,000 through a 99.54 machine. Unfortunately, that translates into only an extra .0033. The night started off with an automatic 25 buck award which would have made that number a tiny bit higher. Unfortunately, I ran into a bad streak of 5 hour quadless play. The few extra full houses that arrived in no way made up for it Never mind a Royalless session as well. Dollar play too ouch!! . I guess that would be considered dumb play as well. I don’t value comps at retail, but I also take into consideration, I had a comped suite, dinner and breakfast, a show if I had wanted to go, and the pure entertainment value and stress relief as well. If it’s all dumb, so be it. At least last night the casino management is doing a high 5 since they picked up a nice 4 percent of my 30,000 coin in and the suite would have gone unrented due to the minor snow storm we had.

[TripleTriple]

I guess you could look at it that way. I was thinking more like someone playing a 96 percent machine and still making major strategy errors. I find it difficult to get 1.5 percent slot club awards around here. Last night I “ earned “ 100 in free play I haven’t used yet, but to get that I had to run 30,000 through a 99.54 machine. Unfortunately, that translates into only an extra .0033. The night started off with an automatic 25 buck award which would have made that number a tiny bit higher.

100 fp on 30000 coin in is 0.33(%), so your effective ev is 99.87%. Add in your $25 and your at 99.95%. Nobody is gonna give you 1.5% playing 9/6 JOB.