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Hi everyone,
Got a quick question about the RNG. I was playing at a casino last night and made a rather costly mistake due to a sticky button. Even though I was aware of the problem and double checking my hands I still made the error. It was one of those that you see right before you hit the deal button for the draw but cannot react in time to correct your holds. I was dealt three 4's. I missed one of the 4's and got a 4 and a 3 on the re-deal. Even though I am fairly certain how the RNG operates I need to put my mind at ease. It is my understanding that if I would have gone back to correct my holds the time it took to do so would have resulted in a different re-deal. Am I correct? Also, I know that the cards are dealt in a serial fashion which means that they come off the top of a virtual deck in order from left to right filling the remaining holes left by the cards that were discarded. In retrospect, I am not sure whether these cards would have filled the correct holes or not but I was fit to be tied. I had made one or two minor mistakes previous to this hand because of this problem but did not want to leave the machine because it appeared ready to give me something really nice.
It would not have bothered me so much if it were a lesser hand. Anything with a kicker is a nice hand to have at any denom. I know from my experience that errors of this kind can and do happen, although it is very rare for me. If I make a mistake like this it is usually due to a machine malfunction. Furthermore, I never(or so I think) make mistakes with high paying hands because I double check such draws as a rule. I wish I could have stopped before I dealt another hand so I could have had the hand analized by a slot tech. If someone could answer this for me I would appreciate it! Thanks in advance!
PS: As fate would have it my night went down the tubes after that. No breaks for this kid. It would have been nice if I could have bailed myself out with a jackpot but it was not to be. I think I dumped another $70 back in and got squat. Sometimes it seems that when they have you down they have to kick you in the ribs for good measure...
RNG question
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VegasVic14
- Forum Rookie
- Posts: 31
- Joined: Sun Mar 16, 2008 1:50 pm
Hi everyone,
Got a quick question about the RNG. I was playing at a casino last night and made rather costly mistake due to a sticky button. Even though I was aware of the problem and double checking my hands I still made an error. It was one of those that you see right before you hit the deal button before the draw but cannot react in time to correct your holds. I was dealt three 4's. I missed one of the 4's and got a 4 and a 3 on the re-deal. Even though I am fairly certain how the RNG operates I need to put my mind at ease. It is my understanding that if I would have gone back to correct my holds the time it took to do so would have resulted in a different re-deal. Am I correct? Also I know that the cards are dealt in a serial fashion which means that they come off the top of a virtual deck in order from left to right filling the remaining holes left by the cards that were discarded. In retrospect I am not sure whether these cards would have filled the correct holes or not but I was fit to be tied. I had made one or two minor mistakes previous to this hand but did not want to leave the machine because it appeared ready to give me something really nice.
You may or may not have gotten the same cards. There are thousands of new card possibilities that are generated every second by the RNG, so I wouldn't worry about it. What happened, happened. Glad it worked out, though. Also, the fact that "the machine appeared ready to give me something nice" is a common mistake. Don't apply "human characteristics" to a machine. Stick to your VP strategy for that particular game and always choose the best pay tables. Nothing else should enter into your thinking.
Got a quick question about the RNG. I was playing at a casino last night and made rather costly mistake due to a sticky button. Even though I was aware of the problem and double checking my hands I still made an error. It was one of those that you see right before you hit the deal button before the draw but cannot react in time to correct your holds. I was dealt three 4's. I missed one of the 4's and got a 4 and a 3 on the re-deal. Even though I am fairly certain how the RNG operates I need to put my mind at ease. It is my understanding that if I would have gone back to correct my holds the time it took to do so would have resulted in a different re-deal. Am I correct? Also I know that the cards are dealt in a serial fashion which means that they come off the top of a virtual deck in order from left to right filling the remaining holes left by the cards that were discarded. In retrospect I am not sure whether these cards would have filled the correct holes or not but I was fit to be tied. I had made one or two minor mistakes previous to this hand but did not want to leave the machine because it appeared ready to give me something really nice.
You may or may not have gotten the same cards. There are thousands of new card possibilities that are generated every second by the RNG, so I wouldn't worry about it. What happened, happened. Glad it worked out, though. Also, the fact that "the machine appeared ready to give me something nice" is a common mistake. Don't apply "human characteristics" to a machine. Stick to your VP strategy for that particular game and always choose the best pay tables. Nothing else should enter into your thinking.
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clwn2
- Senior Member
- Posts: 192
- Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:35 am
Thanks for your response VV. I am aware of most of the attributes of the RNG. I was interested in the specific hand just as an FYI. If the RNG shuffles through the re deal I will be content that I most likely would not have ended up with 4wk if I had noticed that the third 4 was unheld and corrected it. I seem to fit in well with the video poker community regarding interest in math and probability... It helps me to understand how the machines work. Even though I have been playing steadily for 15 years I don't play nearly as often as those who seem to have much knowledge on the subject. In that respect I guess I would consider myself at the intermediate knowledge level, nowhere near the expert level.
One more thing, not considering the rng and the idea that anything can happen in the short term. Through my years playing VP I have noticed that machines seem to play a certain way before they start to hit jackpots. Yes, I have hit the occaional royal out of the blue a very few limited number of times. But, for the most part, the jackpots I have hit have been preceded by lots of paying hands. Whether it be lots of flushes, full houses, dealt hands, quads... it seems that a machine enters a period where it starts to really pay out. This is a noticeable trend that I have been experiencing for years so I know I am not imagining it. Now, all of the experts will shoot this statement down in a minute and dismiss it as coincidence. I don't think so. I think this business of the RNG and the vague idea that anything can happen at any time is overplayed. I do think there are trends that happen with all machines that do indicate that a machine is active in some kind of paying cycle. Uh Oh, there is the forbidden word "CYCLE" That being the case, at least in my experience, is why I will sometimes post a comment that might say in effect "the machine seemed like it was about to give me something nice". Even though there might be no basis in hard fact where the RNG is concerned that does not mean this couldn't be a characteristic of the VP program. Do machines always act this way before a jackpot? No they do not, but, for the most part, they do more often than they do not.
Okay, got that out. I understand why you used the phrase"human characteristics" in your post. In-fact, I have been applying it more and more with my play because I realize how random this is and I do not refute the facts that are presented here. And, how true it is that nothing else should enter my thinking during VP sessions because superstitions will only affect my play for the worse. The only subject I am presenting here are some common situations that I see regularly in my play. Maybe if I get my wish I will get to retire in Vegas and pursue this hobby of mine on regular basis. I will probably find out at that point what it was you guys have been saying all along...
PS: One more jab on trends, cycles or whatever you want to call them.
I was sitting next to a guy last night playing triple play DDB quarters. When I sat down next to him he had approx. $900 in credits in his machine. I did not ask him but I would go out on a limb and guess that he hit either a couple big quads in succession or AwK. Anyway, he proceeded to play the whole amount back into the machine. This is playing quarters where a royal is $1000. Yes, you can get dealt stuff, my point is that he was close to the top single hand jackpot for the machine. I don't care what word you use for it, the time for top hands occur seem to be somewhat cyclical in nature. The straight forward experts seem to be of the belief that since anything can happen in the short term there is no reason to leave the machine and keep playing? Let me just say this, I have never had mutltiple royals on the same machine of the single line variety. This is where I think the idea of the rng goes a little to far. If his machine had not gotten cold, or gone out of the paying cycle, what would your name for this mysterious phenomena be? This is why I will switch machines if mine does not pay after a certain amount of credits, I have tried both ways and that way seems to work better for me..
One more thing, not considering the rng and the idea that anything can happen in the short term. Through my years playing VP I have noticed that machines seem to play a certain way before they start to hit jackpots. Yes, I have hit the occaional royal out of the blue a very few limited number of times. But, for the most part, the jackpots I have hit have been preceded by lots of paying hands. Whether it be lots of flushes, full houses, dealt hands, quads... it seems that a machine enters a period where it starts to really pay out. This is a noticeable trend that I have been experiencing for years so I know I am not imagining it. Now, all of the experts will shoot this statement down in a minute and dismiss it as coincidence. I don't think so. I think this business of the RNG and the vague idea that anything can happen at any time is overplayed. I do think there are trends that happen with all machines that do indicate that a machine is active in some kind of paying cycle. Uh Oh, there is the forbidden word "CYCLE" That being the case, at least in my experience, is why I will sometimes post a comment that might say in effect "the machine seemed like it was about to give me something nice". Even though there might be no basis in hard fact where the RNG is concerned that does not mean this couldn't be a characteristic of the VP program. Do machines always act this way before a jackpot? No they do not, but, for the most part, they do more often than they do not.
Okay, got that out. I understand why you used the phrase"human characteristics" in your post. In-fact, I have been applying it more and more with my play because I realize how random this is and I do not refute the facts that are presented here. And, how true it is that nothing else should enter my thinking during VP sessions because superstitions will only affect my play for the worse. The only subject I am presenting here are some common situations that I see regularly in my play. Maybe if I get my wish I will get to retire in Vegas and pursue this hobby of mine on regular basis. I will probably find out at that point what it was you guys have been saying all along...
PS: One more jab on trends, cycles or whatever you want to call them.
I was sitting next to a guy last night playing triple play DDB quarters. When I sat down next to him he had approx. $900 in credits in his machine. I did not ask him but I would go out on a limb and guess that he hit either a couple big quads in succession or AwK. Anyway, he proceeded to play the whole amount back into the machine. This is playing quarters where a royal is $1000. Yes, you can get dealt stuff, my point is that he was close to the top single hand jackpot for the machine. I don't care what word you use for it, the time for top hands occur seem to be somewhat cyclical in nature. The straight forward experts seem to be of the belief that since anything can happen in the short term there is no reason to leave the machine and keep playing? Let me just say this, I have never had mutltiple royals on the same machine of the single line variety. This is where I think the idea of the rng goes a little to far. If his machine had not gotten cold, or gone out of the paying cycle, what would your name for this mysterious phenomena be? This is why I will switch machines if mine does not pay after a certain amount of credits, I have tried both ways and that way seems to work better for me..
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New2vp
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1850
- Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:02 am
Using only randomness as an assumption instead of hot or cold spells on a machine (I was trying not to use the word "cycles"), the probability of getting 2 or more royals in a 4-hour session on a single line 9/6 Jacks or Better machine (at 600 hands per hour) is about 0.0017 or about 1 time in about 589.5 4-hour sessions. Even if you have had that many sessions in your vp career, with pure randomness, it would be reasonable not to have experienced multiple royals in even one session...especially if you had a high chance of quitting after receiving the first royal.
Royals are very unlikely events. So having two royals is even more unlikely. It would take 1765 such sessions without multiple royals for one to have enough evidence to reject a hypothesis of randomness and say that your conclusion was "statistically significant." Even then we would have about a 5% chance of being mistaken in our conclusion.
This is certainly not to say that hot and cold spells (or a machine repeating hands in regular cycles) could not explain the same phenomenon. But, unfortunately, without significant objective controls placed on an experiment with the hypotheses to be tested formed BEFORE the experience starts and without a number of trials larger than one might reasonably be able to replicate, our sensory experiences and memories are generally not enough evidence to reject randomness.
It is certainly reasonable for one's experiences to suggest hot or cold spells; it's just unlikely for those experiences to conclusively prove cause and effect. That being said, even with randomness, it cannot hurt to switch machines after a royal...unless the machine you are moving to has a poorer pay schedule.
Royals are very unlikely events. So having two royals is even more unlikely. It would take 1765 such sessions without multiple royals for one to have enough evidence to reject a hypothesis of randomness and say that your conclusion was "statistically significant." Even then we would have about a 5% chance of being mistaken in our conclusion.
This is certainly not to say that hot and cold spells (or a machine repeating hands in regular cycles) could not explain the same phenomenon. But, unfortunately, without significant objective controls placed on an experiment with the hypotheses to be tested formed BEFORE the experience starts and without a number of trials larger than one might reasonably be able to replicate, our sensory experiences and memories are generally not enough evidence to reject randomness.
It is certainly reasonable for one's experiences to suggest hot or cold spells; it's just unlikely for those experiences to conclusively prove cause and effect. That being said, even with randomness, it cannot hurt to switch machines after a royal...unless the machine you are moving to has a poorer pay schedule.
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
The shortest time span between royals on a single line machine in my experience is around 20 minutes. On a 3-play I hit two royals in less than 5 minutes and they were both on the same line. What does this mean? Not much.
I've mentioned this before a few times. The human mind is a phenomenal pattern recognition engine. It is constantly evaluating the environment and trying to categorize. This is part of our survival instincts. It is also why we see so many patterns in VP. However, I can assure you that after the first 5-10 million hands you play, you start to realize that you've seen it all before. Hot ... cold ... warm ... cool. The fact is, these are not REAL patterns, these are simply side effects of randomness. Randomness really is a very strange animal.
Also, when you are playing a machine you are skipping over thousands of random numbers between every hand as well as between deal and draw. If you think about it, how can your tiny sample of just a few of these numbers be any kind of a "cycle" (hot or cold). Someone else playing a machine while it was in the same "area" of the rng map would see completely different results.
Finally, since the rng keeps running all the time, anything you do will almost be guaranteed to change the random number selected when you draw cards. Going back and changing a hold is guaranteed to produce a different random number. Keep in mind that VP machines are dealing with billions of random numbers that are then mapped into 52 cards. So, even with a different random number selection there is still a small probability you could have gotten the same results.
I've mentioned this before a few times. The human mind is a phenomenal pattern recognition engine. It is constantly evaluating the environment and trying to categorize. This is part of our survival instincts. It is also why we see so many patterns in VP. However, I can assure you that after the first 5-10 million hands you play, you start to realize that you've seen it all before. Hot ... cold ... warm ... cool. The fact is, these are not REAL patterns, these are simply side effects of randomness. Randomness really is a very strange animal.
Also, when you are playing a machine you are skipping over thousands of random numbers between every hand as well as between deal and draw. If you think about it, how can your tiny sample of just a few of these numbers be any kind of a "cycle" (hot or cold). Someone else playing a machine while it was in the same "area" of the rng map would see completely different results.
Finally, since the rng keeps running all the time, anything you do will almost be guaranteed to change the random number selected when you draw cards. Going back and changing a hold is guaranteed to produce a different random number. Keep in mind that VP machines are dealing with billions of random numbers that are then mapped into 52 cards. So, even with a different random number selection there is still a small probability you could have gotten the same results.
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jm002546
- Senior Member
- Posts: 398
- Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:13 am
The hot and cold cycle deal. Yes, they happen but you only know it after the fact. If you play 20 hands and do very bad, then if the next 20 hands are a repeat you tell yourself you knew you were in a bad cycle, why didn't you change machines! But if the next 20 hands are good you forget all about the cycle idea, the bad that is. However, you are then in a good cycle and can't dare risk a restroom break. As has been said, certain outcomes get reinforced in your mind to make them stand out more than their opposites. Having explained all that, why can I not accept it my OWNSELF, as they say?
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
Hey jm, if we can't blame the machines who can we blame?
However, it's reassuring to know that it's just part of the game and everyone experiences the same ups and downs. I moved machines today after losing several Benjis and having to listen to John Wayne blaring in my ears. However, the machine I moved to had sticky keys (and was also sucking up Benjis), so I moved back since no was playing the slot anymore. After moving back my luck changed to the better.
However, it's reassuring to know that it's just part of the game and everyone experiences the same ups and downs. I moved machines today after losing several Benjis and having to listen to John Wayne blaring in my ears. However, the machine I moved to had sticky keys (and was also sucking up Benjis), so I moved back since no was playing the slot anymore. After moving back my luck changed to the better.
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EDC1977
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2001
- Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:12 pm
Shadow, do the 10x points at Tuscany apply to VP? Some casinos are starting to rate only slot players as the house edge is much higher.
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
Yes, Ed, everyone gets 10x. There are no >100% VP games but plenty of 99+% which works great with the 1% CB. However, you do get more comps playing slots.
I did not make it there today as I was playing at SouthPoint (3x*.3). Same description holds for SouthPoint except you don't get extra comps like you do at Tuscany.
I did not make it there today as I was playing at SouthPoint (3x*.3). Same description holds for SouthPoint except you don't get extra comps like you do at Tuscany.
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EDC1977
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2001
- Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:12 pm
Yeah but Southpoint is closer so you save in gas and traffic hassles what you may have earned in the casino.
