help me understand

[mschaching]

I have two questions for you VP gurus:
 
1.  Are Vp machines programmed "looser" in certain casinos to hit or does it depend on the pay table?  Was in
Vegasa few months ago for 3 days, playing 8/5 BP on MSS-hit 30 4oaks.. This past weekend was in Red Wing MN at Treasure Island (Indian Casino) playing 6/5 BP(or 10/8 with even payout on two pair) and hit 2 4oaks all weekend.. There were no full pay machines, not even dollar
 
2. If your beginning stake is 100.00, what is the expected (hopefully) return playing baic strategy versus advanced.  You can use JOB as an example.  Is there such a big difference??  Thanks

[Eduardo]

Second question... there is no "expected return" on $100. You won't approach the expected return of a machine until you have played a lot (really a lot) of hands. Think of expected return as the amount a casino can expect to win or lose on a pay table over the life of a machine. If you plan on playing a ton, then the expected return may apply to you more directly as well. The best thing the expected return does for players like you and me is give us an indicator of which machines to play on and the best hold for each situation to make the most of every hand.


 
It depends on what denomination you are playing, but on $100 you can "expect" to end up at any number of places. You could run it out quicly or Hit a royal right away. I think you can plug in a $100 bankroll into a program like video poker for winners and it will give you the probabilities of ending up at any number of places. Odds of going broke, odds of breaking even over a certain number of hands, odds of winning big... there are a lot of options so you can't "expect" anything over a short session. If you looked at 1,000 players though, you could somewhat predict how many of them would end up at various places at the end of a session, within a margin of error.
 
But any deviation from strategy, either basic or advanced, is going to mean the casino keeps more of the cash than the players overall. That's the important part of Expected Return to understand, and why making the proper plays is important. Any other decision makes the casinos happier.
 
There is little difference between a sloppy player who doesn't know the details of a game and someone who plays on hunches or  thinks they have a "better" strategy. They both give the casino a greater edge when they deviate from the strategy.
 
As for the specifics of basic versus advanced, on a $100.00 bankroll the difference is goingt o be minimal.

[EDC1977]

He's correct in that you cannot really get an "expected" return for a given amount of money, only what you can expect to earn over the long haul given a positive return paytable played perfectly. Most tutorials will tell you ER is based over a lifespan of the machine. Even if you are, well better not use that name considering Webman closed that thread.

[oej719]

Ed you can always use the symbol instead of the name. Most of the 114k members will know what it means.
Except the banned members and they are him.

[scorpio2]

wow.that would mean one would have to play the same machine for 5 yrs,or so,to get expcted return.i wonder if the amt.of money you put in,say a twenty,or like bob dancer,a few hundreds at a time matters.sometimes you see someone cashing out,and then playing the pay slip right back in,does that matter?

[mschaching]

I have witnessed this same phenomenon many times.  I figured they were just screwing up their "session play" if you're playing for comps.  Anyone going to be able to answer my first question?

[shadowman]

I have two questions for you VP gurus:
 
1.  Are Vp machines programmed "looser" in certain casinos to hit or does it depend on the pay table?  Was in
Vegasa few months ago for 3 days, playing 8/5 BP on MSS-hit 30 4oaks.. This past weekend was in Red Wing MN at Treasure Island (Indian Casino) playing 6/5 BP(or 10/8 with even payout on two pair) and hit 2 4oaks all weekend.. There were no full pay machines, not even dollar
 
2. If your beginning stake is 100.00, what is the expected (hopefully) return playing baic strategy versus advanced.  You can use JOB as an example.  Is there such a big difference??  Thanks
 
1) The payback an individual sees depends on the paytables combined with the skill the player uses. Every game requires a different strategy to be played skillfully. Over time a player's results will bring them closer to the expected return. Some individuals may track right on the ER and others may be high or low. This variation is expected for random games like VP.
 
TI has one game with >100% payback. It is the two jacks wild game (aka One-eyed Jacks). I play them almost every week.
 
2) There are many different strategies with differences in ER. For 9/6 JOB basic strategies can return anywhere from 99.4% up to 99.54%. If you look at an average (that's all an ER is), then my lower strategy for $100 you lose .14% more money than you would with the better strategy. That's 14 cents for every hundred dollars put through the machines. If you put $10,000 dollars through the machines this would become $14. The more you play the more you would lose. Of course, as others have mentioned, it will take awhile before this becomes evident (if ever for recreational players).
 
My own personal take is to play as well as you can without overtaxing yourself.

[faygo]

I have two questions for you VP gurus:
 
1.  Are Vp machines programmed "looser" in certain casinos to hit or does it depend on the pay table?  Was in
Vegasa few months ago for 3 days, playing 8/5 BP on MSS-hit 30 4oaks.. This past weekend was in Red Wing MN at Treasure Island (Indian Casino) playing 6/5 BP(or 10/8 with even payout on two pair) and hit 2 4oaks all weekend.. There were no full pay machines, not even dollar
 
 
 
Video Poker machines are not set to any "looseness or tightness". The paytable has nothing to do with the number of 4OAK hands you will see.
Because the natural occurance of FHs and Straights are usually higher, the higher payout (your example; 8/5 vs 6/5 ) for these allows you  to stay in the game longer.

[EDC1977]

I have two questions for you VP gurus:
 
1.  Are Vp machines programmed "looser" in certain casinos to hit or does it depend on the pay table? I forget now where I read it (adult CRS) but they can adjust payback percentages, in essence, loosening or tightening machine paybacks despite random independant events. You are always going to find that "one" machine that seems to payout more often.

[EDC1977]

Ed you can always use the symbol instead of the name. Most of the 114k members will know what it means.
Except the banned members and they are him. J, I considered it for a moment but declined because the whole pattern prediction and hot and cold cycle recognition thing. Best to leave a sleeping dog lie!