Gold Exclusive
My Favorites
Game , 9/6 DDB non-progressive.
Hand Ks,10s,4s,6c,8h. (or similar k,10, one small card suited hands)
Correct hold is Ks,10s,4s.
Interested in how many folks make the correct hold vs Ks,10s only.
I have to admit this is one hold that I don't adhere to religiously. Especially on the games on here.
I've had the reasoning explained to me numerous times but it is hard to give up the possible Royal Flush, Straight Flush,4OAK, Full House, Straight draws.
What do you do?
-
damule
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 551
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 4:59 pm
Faygo,
In no way at all do I hold K-10-4 suited here. I don't care what any computer says. I don't even hold K-10 suited. J-10, Q-10, and K-J yes. K-10 has a 2-gap spread to fill. It's too hard to fill in a straight and takes away needed chances for high pairs, 3OAK's and possible 4OAK's. I only hold the K in this hand and in the long run the expected return is higher in my opinion and experiences.
In no way at all do I hold K-10-4 suited here. I don't care what any computer says. I don't even hold K-10 suited. J-10, Q-10, and K-J yes. K-10 has a 2-gap spread to fill. It's too hard to fill in a straight and takes away needed chances for high pairs, 3OAK's and possible 4OAK's. I only hold the K in this hand and in the long run the expected return is higher in my opinion and experiences.
-
shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
I believe the difference is so small (.0022) it doesn't matter either way. in addition, if you have an off suit 9 straight penalty card then, if you don't hold KT4, the king alone becomes the best play (the 4 is already a flush penalty to KT). However, it is not a big difference either (.0040).
Interestingly, in 10/6 DDB the KT is the correct hold so you can always claim you're using that strategy.
This is one where your perceived experience may lead one astray. You will hit more flushes holding KT4 but you will lose more times (about 85% vs. 75%). That often makes it "feel" like you're not doing as well. however, the numbers don't lie. The expected return is not some imaginary value. If one plays regularly the ER are what you will see over time. In this case the difference is so small that it can be ignored.
Interestingly, in 10/6 DDB the KT is the correct hold so you can always claim you're using that strategy.
This is one where your perceived experience may lead one astray. You will hit more flushes holding KT4 but you will lose more times (about 85% vs. 75%). That often makes it "feel" like you're not doing as well. however, the numbers don't lie. The expected return is not some imaginary value. If one plays regularly the ER are what you will see over time. In this case the difference is so small that it can be ignored.
-
damule
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 551
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 4:59 pm
shadowman,
I agree with K-10 in 10-6 DDB single line. But in 9-6, 9-5, 8-5 and especially multiline and supertimes pay DDB games I only hold the King and there have been countless times I've pulled positive hands doing so. As you say the difference is so small, why not go for the larger hit...we're not playing an infinite number of hands.
I agree with K-10 in 10-6 DDB single line. But in 9-6, 9-5, 8-5 and especially multiline and supertimes pay DDB games I only hold the King and there have been countless times I've pulled positive hands doing so. As you say the difference is so small, why not go for the larger hit...we're not playing an infinite number of hands.
-
shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
It doesn't take an infinite number of hands. This is an argument I've seen used often but it is not always valid. For a part time player I can see your reasoning, but for a regular player like me I play enough hands every year to make it profitable to play as well as possible. Now, like I already said, this difference is so small in this particular case that it can be ignored. However, I've seen people apply the same logic when the difference is substantial.
-
cddenver
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2269
- Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:54 pm
I believe the difference is so small (.0022) it doesn't matter either way. in addition, if you have an off suit 9 straight penalty card then, if you don't hold KT4, the king alone becomes the best play (the 4 is already a flush penalty to KT). However, it is not a big difference either (.0040).
In a brief thread on penalty plays that we had going a while back, you and MikeA pointed out that the benefits of remembering many different plays may well be offset by mistakes made due to the increased mental workload. Good advice. In my own case I've since dropped some of my doesn't-make-a-hill-of-beans-difference plays.
In a brief thread on penalty plays that we had going a while back, you and MikeA pointed out that the benefits of remembering many different plays may well be offset by mistakes made due to the increased mental workload. Good advice. In my own case I've since dropped some of my doesn't-make-a-hill-of-beans-difference plays.
-
damule
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 551
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 4:59 pm
shadowman,
I'm not drinking Fa La La La La.... La la la la's kool-aid if that's where you're going...I'm a high count hand player as well. I'm at 75,000 total rewards tier credits for the year and will try to make seven stars next weekend. I just side towards the higher reward side of hands where the ER difference is so small that I may gain a large hit by doing so. I don't make a living playing video poker, but winning is extremely important to me. For instance I always hold 3 to a RF, regardless of which three, over JOB everytime although that is not the correct perfect strategy. I have always felt the more royal flushes you try for the more you will get. Sort of like the lottery, you gotta be in it to win it
And btw, I do NOT hold 3 to a RF over 3 of a kind like someone we all know that brags about doing so.
I'm not drinking Fa La La La La.... La la la la's kool-aid if that's where you're going...I'm a high count hand player as well. I'm at 75,000 total rewards tier credits for the year and will try to make seven stars next weekend. I just side towards the higher reward side of hands where the ER difference is so small that I may gain a large hit by doing so. I don't make a living playing video poker, but winning is extremely important to me. For instance I always hold 3 to a RF, regardless of which three, over JOB everytime although that is not the correct perfect strategy. I have always felt the more royal flushes you try for the more you will get. Sort of like the lottery, you gotta be in it to win it
And btw, I do NOT hold 3 to a RF over 3 of a kind like someone we all know that brags about doing so.
-
oej719
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1777
- Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:46 pm
That's not just kool aid. More like 97proof, paint thinner,
or the cheapest thing on sale at walgreens.
or the cheapest thing on sale at walgreens.
-
shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
Damule, I have no problem with anyone playing whatever strategy they chose as long as they don't claim THEIR strategy is somehow superior to a mathematical approach. In addition, I believe one's goals are important and as long as a person states why their goals lead them to supercede a mathematical approach then I'm fine with that.
In my case I'm more inclined to hold a high pair over 3RF EVEN when 3RF is a slightly better hold. Two things factor into this approach. One is variance and other is personal experience. Although I have hit RFs tossing a high pair I can count them on one hand. I can't count the number of times I've hit FHs and quads. Of course, this is applying personal expereince as well. I've played many progressives in my time so this is something I've done many, many times.
The variance aspect is something that is not well understood. If you study Kelly betting you will find that the best hold for bankroll growth is not always the one with the highest ER. Until the ER difference becomes significant the best hold is always the one with the smallest variance (and yes, you can look at the variance of each hand). In this case the word "significant" is different based on the two variances. Also, this seldom factors into more than a few decisions a day and, because of the added complexity, is another one of those concepts that should be ignored by most players.
There are a couple of VP tutors that allow people to determine the cost of these kind of decisions. You can modify the strategies and the program will determine the new ER. The program I use when I want to do this is WVP.
In my case I'm more inclined to hold a high pair over 3RF EVEN when 3RF is a slightly better hold. Two things factor into this approach. One is variance and other is personal experience. Although I have hit RFs tossing a high pair I can count them on one hand. I can't count the number of times I've hit FHs and quads. Of course, this is applying personal expereince as well. I've played many progressives in my time so this is something I've done many, many times.
The variance aspect is something that is not well understood. If you study Kelly betting you will find that the best hold for bankroll growth is not always the one with the highest ER. Until the ER difference becomes significant the best hold is always the one with the smallest variance (and yes, you can look at the variance of each hand). In this case the word "significant" is different based on the two variances. Also, this seldom factors into more than a few decisions a day and, because of the added complexity, is another one of those concepts that should be ignored by most players.
There are a couple of VP tutors that allow people to determine the cost of these kind of decisions. You can modify the strategies and the program will determine the new ER. The program I use when I want to do this is WVP.
-
damule
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 551
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 4:59 pm
shadow,
You can call me "mule". I agree, the math certainly doesn't lie and playing for lower variance will definitely create lower gains and more importantly lower losses over time. However, in my opinion and for me personally, in the short term the higher expected return is what drives many players to keep coming back and is what makes video poker a great game.
Your strategy is most certainly mathmatically correct and there is no argument about that. But for me, and many other players, to hit a royal when holding 3 to a RF over a high pair vs potential full houses or quads holds no comparison in the drive to play.
Again, what I'm saying is this is still a game and I try to have fun with it, I don't make a living with it.
You can call me "mule". I agree, the math certainly doesn't lie and playing for lower variance will definitely create lower gains and more importantly lower losses over time. However, in my opinion and for me personally, in the short term the higher expected return is what drives many players to keep coming back and is what makes video poker a great game.
Your strategy is most certainly mathmatically correct and there is no argument about that. But for me, and many other players, to hit a royal when holding 3 to a RF over a high pair vs potential full houses or quads holds no comparison in the drive to play.
Again, what I'm saying is this is still a game and I try to have fun with it, I don't make a living with it.
