Question about EV

[SusieVP]

Hello everyone,
 
New to the forums, but long-time lurker.  I have a question for all you math gurus out there (as you can tell, I am not one.. lol)
 
I play video poker quite often at the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City.  I get quite a bit of bonus cash for my play (at least 3 times per week.)  I do live close, and usually have just a few big trips each year.  My new job will allow me much more time to play, and I would like to still have just the few big trips a year, but would like to play the bonus cash to my advantage (if it is possible..)  I know my bonus cash will probably start to dwindle with a lot of smaller trips, but the big trips I take will make up for it and at least keep the bonus cash coming.
 
Now, I mainly play Double Double Bonus in which at Taj it is the 9/6 variety.  I normally play 25-cent, 50-cent, or 1-dollar versions with occasional triple play or super times pay mixed in. 
 
My plan is to play the 25-cent single line 9/6 double double bonus for $100 total ONLY on the days I have bonus cash.  Right now my bonus cash varies from $30-$45 each time I am offered, and like I said, I get it at least a few times each week.
 
Example:
 
Monday: $35 bonus cash + $65 of my own cash
Wednesday: $40 bonus cash + $60 of my own cash
Friday: $30 bonus cash + $70 of my own cash
 
Now my strategy will be to have a stop-loss when I hit a quad or better:
5's-Kings or straight flush: $60
2's, 3's, or 4's: $100
Aces or 2's, 3's, 4's w/A,2,3,4: $200
Aces with 2,3,4: $500
Royal: $1000
 
If I hit any of the above hands, I MUST stop my play at the values stated.  However, If I hit something like four 3's and the machine shows an amount greater than $100, I can still play it down to $100.  If I hit another qualifying hand, the same rules apply.. (Ex: I hit four 3's = $100, then before I get to $100, I hit four Q's = $60, I must stop at $160 unless I hit yet another qualifying hand.) 
 
If I stick to the above strategy with $100 total (bonus cash/my own cash) playing a 9/6 DDB, what will the expected return come out to? 
 
Is there a calculation that I can input my bonus cash amount and calculate when my play will generate over 100%?  I asked a slot attendant that I know and he says that with $100 of play per day, I would average about $3-$5 in cashback as well, so I will also be getting about $9-$15 per week for this as well. 
 
Sorry if this post doesn't make much sense, or it seems a bit long.  I know there is a calculation somewhere to see if I can gain a little edge with this.  There has to be something.. I mean if I am going to play $100 of video poker for only $60 on a day that I have $40 bonus cash, there has to be a better return for me, right? 
 
Thanks to all for responding, and Merry Christmas everyone!!
 
Susie 
 
 
 

[Eduardo]

Well, there are a whole range of places you can end up at. I mean, you could play all $100 in and not win a penny. It's not likely but it's possible, just like hitting a royal on the first hand is possible. But your odds of coming out ahead on your own money should be very good since you also have a good percentage of your bankroll covered by the bonus cash. If you play it all through and know how to stop, I'd say your odds are very good. I don't know how to run those numbers though, sorry.Having said that, it's also easy to play $100 down to nothing since it also requires some bigger wins to really reach an expected return for a machine and you might not get those. Short answer: Your odds will be much better than playing only with your own cash but on DDB quarters, you could also easily burn that money if you fail to hit a quad. But if you are a gambler, there's really no good reason to pass this up playing with their money.

[scorpio2]

sounds like Fa La La La La.... La la la la strategy,more than bob dancer strategy that you play susie.

[New2vp]

Your expected return will be a loss of a little more than 1.02% multiplied by the money that you put through the machine each play, simply based on your choice of game.  On a $1 machine at 600 hands per hour, that means an average loss of about $30.60 per hour, $7.65 an hour on a quarter machine.  How much more of an expected loss that you will have depends on how you play your cards.  Playing "Dancer" strategy perfectly will result in the lowest expected loss.  Playing "Fa La La La La.... La la la la" strategy (whatever that is considering no one has the list of special plays) will result an a slightly higher expected loss but perhaps a somewhat higher probability of a winning session.Your actual return will be much, much different.  Whether you have good luck or bad luck will mean that your actual return will be much higher or lower than your expected return most of the time.Certainly you will be better off playing with the casino's cash than yours AND the losses above do not consider any possible cash back or comps.  So, the more cash back, the more that cuts into the casino's take.  Also consider after you have played that cash through the first time, it has become your money not the casinos that you are risking.  Once again, that money will be subject to the 1.02% casino edge.With your strategy, you will have a whole range of results when you will occasionally go home a winner.  But what it comes down to is "Are you having fun?"  Playing video poker is more fun to most people than taking a statistics course. 

[SusieVP]

Short answer: Your odds will be much better than playing only with your own cash but on DDB quarters, you could also easily burn that money if you fail to hit a quad. But if you are a gambler, there's really no good reason to pass this up playing with their money.

 
That what I was thinking.  I am certainly a gambler, but since I live close and I do want to go to the casino more often, I don't want to risk a lot of money in-between my big trips that I have when my family comes down.  I figure if I can play on some of their money, my odds of getting some decent hits should definitely be better.

[SusieVP]

sounds like Fa La La La La.... La la la la strategy,more than bob dancer strategy that you play susie.
 
Well, in a way I guess.. I do have VPFW, and play Dancer's strategies on what to hold, and I play nearly perfect at DDB never going on hunches, and always going for the long term.. but for these trips, I'm not really looking for a "long-term" goal.  I am basically saying I will be going 3 or so days per week putting a total of $100 through the machine.  The only days I go are days that I have bonus cash, which means I only spend about $60-$70 for $100 of play.  I just want to maximize my winnings when I do hit the quads or better, and make sure to have a good stopping point when I do hit.  And since I do not want to lose a lot of money, I wanted to see if anyone can tell me if my odds of coming out at least even or better are plausible.

[SusieVP]

Your expected return will be a loss of a little more than 1.02% multiplied by the money that you put through the machine each play, simply based on your choice of game.  On a $1 machine at 600 hands per hour, that means an average loss of about $30.60 per hour, $7.65 an hour on a quarter machine.  How much more of an expected loss that you will have depends on how you play your cards.  Playing "Dancer" strategy perfectly will result in the lowest expected loss.  Playing "Fa La La La La.... La la la la" strategy (whatever that is considering no one has the list of special plays) will result an a slightly higher expected loss but perhaps a somewhat higher probability of a winning session.

Your actual return will be much, much different.  Whether you have good luck or bad luck will mean that your actual return will be much higher or lower than your expected return most of the time.

Certainly you will be better off playing with the casino's cash than yours AND the losses above do not consider any possible cash back or comps.  So, the more cash back, the more that cuts into the casino's take.  Also consider after you have played that cash through the first time, it has become your money not the casinos that you are risking.  Once again, that money will be subject to the 1.02% casino edge.

With your strategy, you will have a whole range of results when you will occasionally go home a winner.  But what it comes down to is "Are you having fun?"  Playing video poker is more fun to most people than taking a statistics course. 
 
Oh I will definitely be having fun, even though these short trips will be more about trying to profit, whereas in my big trips profit is nice, but not necessary since there are more variables involved (i.e. meals with the family, shows, shopping, etc..)
 
Having said that, I am hoping that I can get a decent result, since with 3 times per week, getting about $100 free (with 3 days of bonus cash) I will put $200 of my own money in and get $300 in play. 

[faygo]

[QUOTE=Eduardo]

Short answer: Your odds will be much better than playing only with your own cash but on DDB quarters, you could also easily burn that money if you fail to hit a quad. But if you are a gambler, there's really no good reason to pass this up playing with their money.

 
That what I was thinking.  I am certainly a gambler, but since I live close and I do want to go to the casino more often, I don't want to risk a lot of money in-between my big trips that I have when my family comes down.  I figure if I can play on some of their money, my odds of getting some decent hits should definitely be better.[/QUOTE]
SusieVP
 
The odds of winning or losing have nothing to do with whose money you are playing with. I never look at Cashback or Walking in cash as belonging to the Casino. It is all my money. I earned it one way or another. It is mine.
As to your belief that the odds improve by playing more often will lead to some decent hits, anything can happen in the short term, however, I wouldn't expect to see any marked difference in the long term results.

[SusieVP]

faygo,
 
I know that the odds of winning or losing don't have to do with whose money I am playing with, but my odds would have to be better to at least hit a quad or better, which is my only real goal for these short trips.
 
2 scenarios:
 
1.) Let's assume I get $40 in bonus cash today, which means I take $60 with me.  I go down to the casino and play my $100 session stopping with my goals above (1n 1st post..) with any quad or better, or if I do not hit, I just lose that $60 and leave.
 
2.) Let's assume no bonus cash.  I will bring $100 with me and play with the same criteria.
 
The difference between the two scenarios is that the first one only cost me $60 if I go broke, and the second one cost me $100. 
 
Or we could look at it another way.. 
 
Minimum # of hands played: 
 
1.) $40 bonus cash day + $60: $1.25 per hand with $100 to play with would give me 80 hands minimum
2.) $0 bonus cash day + $60: $1.25 per hand with $60 to play with would give me 48 hands minimum
 
I in no way believe that my actual odds of hitting on any certain day or that the odds will be better depending on  whose money I play with, but if my goal is strictly to cash out ANY quad or better and pocket that profit, the extra play I am going to get on those bonus cash days will give me a better chance to hit quads with less money to spend out of my own pocket.  Like I said in one of my previous posts, in any given week, I will be spending $200 out of my own money to get $300 worth of play.  About 33% of my bankroll is not even mine, it will be the casino's. 
 
 

[SusieVP]

Oh, I almost forgot, I will treat all cashback as profit, since you can actually cash that out without playing it.  I also consider comp dollars profit as well since I use them for coffee, meals, gifts, etc..  However, bonus cash I don't really consider profit (yet) since Taj requires you to play through the money before you cash it out.  They give you $40, and you have to wager $40.  Sure, I could just go and wager no money on my end and just play the minimum amount of hands to "release my bonus cash" which with $40 would be ($40/$1.25) = 32 hands, but what fun it that?