DDB question?

[FloridaPhil]

My WinPoker is giving me a DDB play that I don't understand.  The hand is 10-D, 6-H, 7-C, 4-D, K-D.   I would keep the K-D & 10-D and go for the Royal.  WinPoker says to keep the 4-D also and go for the flush.  Can someone please give me a simple explanation of why this is so.  I am trying to understand Penalty cards and I think this may be one of those situations.  It could also be that there is a very simple explanation and that I can't see the forest for the trees...

[TEXACO]

    FLORIDAPHIL:  IF YOU GO TO (VPGENIUS.COM) AND USE THE HAND ANALYZER YOU WILL FIND THAT IT WILL HAVE YOU HOLD ONLY THE "10-D AND THE K-D" AND NOT THE "4-D" WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN PAY OFF SMALL AT $2.1126 VS $2.1092 OR A 26 % VS 19.7%CHANCE. 

[shadowman]

Like all VP hands the correct hold is determined by averaging the possible winning results. It does not differentiate between them. You mentioned a RF which would occur once out of every 16215 holds of two royal cards. Holding 3 to a flush will hit about ever 24 hands. But even looking at that is limiting. You have to look at all winning combinations.  

 
Now, with that said, the difference in return for holding KT4 over KT is minuscule ... 2.1092 vs. 2.1070 ... certainly not something to worry about.
 
 
This also illustrates how paytable changes impact strategy. TEXACO gave the results for 10/6 DDB while the results I gave are for 9/6 DDB.

[conrad sparks]

you mean i hold different cards on different machines if the payouts are different?

[Lucky Larry]

you mean i hold different cards on different machines if the payouts are different?
Welcome to the forum.

Better experts will give you the stats but the answer is often yes.

For example on Deuces Wild check to see if 4 of a kinds (4OAK) pays the same as a Full House (FH). This helps determines whether you keep both pairs or just one pair. Some DW pay more for 4 OAK than FH thus letting you know which way to play the game. Don't worry, it took us a lot of practice and reading of the forums and strategy guides to catch the nuances.

Good luck..

LL

[farmer1]

SHADOWMAN
IF YOUR #OF HITTING A ROYAL WHEN KEEPING 3 IS 1 OUT OF 24 I AM WAY WAY BEHIND THIS. ARE YOU SURE?
THANKS
 

[Eduardo]

He said Flush, not Royal flush.

[shadowman]

Sorry for the confusion, farmer1, but as Eduardo commented I was referring to a flush in that situation. Naturally, anyone can confirm this via simple math. Holding 3 flush cards leaves 10 in the deck. Combining these 10 cards, 2 at a time (10_C_2) yields a result of 45 (10!/(8!*2!). So, of the 1081 possible draws (47_C_2) of two cards there are 45 possible flushes. 1081/45 is approximately 24.



 
And, since it was brought up, there is only one combination of cards out of the 1081 possible draws that will yield a RF when holding 3 royal cards.
 
I realize many folks don't consider combinatorial arithmetic to be simple, but any decent scientific calculator will do the job.

[farmer1]

MY FAULT FOR NOT READING PROPERLY, I FEEL MUCH BETTER ABOUT THIS NOW. SO YOUR SAYING 1 OUT OF 1081?
THANKS
 

[EDC1977]

Farmer, if you read correctly, he gave odds on the one winning combination when holding 3 cards. The question asked inre: winpoker was whether to hold KT suited or KT low card suited. Since your hold requires a 3 card winning combination, I'm sure the odds of hitting that one winning combo greatly increase. Keep in mind too that he gave odds of 1 in 1,081 possible combinations. That doesn't mean that you're gonna hit that once every 1,081 chances.