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Rolan,
Let's say 500 people are interested in the strategy you play and they learn to play it just like you.
All 500 people go out to a casino and play.
Is it your contention that the group will bring home more money from the casino than an "AP player" playing the same number of hands as those 500 people did?
simple question for rolan
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Eduardo
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:19 pm
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rolanddude
- Senior Member
- Posts: 344
- Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:01 pm
Eduardo,
There are misconceptions in this forum amongst the regular posters here between "Short Term Strategy" and "Advantage Play Strategy"... Mainly because of the guy who brought "STS" into the mainstream.
When playing "STS" you'd better be playing most all of your hands according to "The Math". The ONLY time you differ from these optimum holds is when you have the opportunity/CHANCE to hit your "session goal" with a larger paying "hit" than what "The Math" says would be the best hold "in the long run". (Remember we play in the "Short Run" not the "Long Run" with STS)
For instance, when playing 9/6 DDB, you are dealt two pair...QQ766...since the payoff is the same for both the high pair and two pair... I will often hold just the high pair BECAUSE a full house will not give me my win goal for the session... so I am willing to accept at least a 1/1 payout or even a 3/1 payout for 3oak (which often happens on the 2nd or 3rd drawn card out and wouldn't have given me my FH anyway) just for the chance at getting the 4oak.
In "STS" play you are playing to get a 4oak. If you play within the set parameters of when to change denominations (both up or down) then you are a winner whenever a 4oak is acheived. When using AP strategy your goal is to hit a Royal Flush before you have gone through 4000 credits. This is why playing the Full Pay machines is SO IMPORTANT to the "Advantage Player" when playing VP. With optimum holds you are "hopeful" that you can hang in there LONG enough without losing 4000 credits before that elusive Royal comes along.
In closing, I want to point out to Eduardo and the rest of the forum that to try to compare one type of play with the other by asking "Who will be ahead after 500 hands?"or "Which is better 500 people playing short term or 1 AP player?" is both misguided and impossible to answer for the following reasons. When playing "STS" you change denominations at self determined/preset intervals depending upon how many credits you are down...You have a session bankroll that you will NOT violate when you occasionally reach your "stop-loss" point. Therefore, you may or may not play 500 hands before your win goal or your stop-loss is attained. If you win your session then most of the time you are ahead of AP because you hit your 4oak on a higher denom(if 4oak is hit on starting denomination you will both obviously be the same or fractionally different depending upon how many non-optimal plays were hit or not hit). If you lose your session you will have went through your session bankroll alot quicker than the AP player due to changing your denom upwards at preset intervals. This keeps me from having to play for hours and hours to reach my goals...unlike the average AP player who HAS to sit and play longer by design of the strategy to reach his goal.
There are misconceptions in this forum amongst the regular posters here between "Short Term Strategy" and "Advantage Play Strategy"... Mainly because of the guy who brought "STS" into the mainstream.
When playing "STS" you'd better be playing most all of your hands according to "The Math". The ONLY time you differ from these optimum holds is when you have the opportunity/CHANCE to hit your "session goal" with a larger paying "hit" than what "The Math" says would be the best hold "in the long run". (Remember we play in the "Short Run" not the "Long Run" with STS)
For instance, when playing 9/6 DDB, you are dealt two pair...QQ766...since the payoff is the same for both the high pair and two pair... I will often hold just the high pair BECAUSE a full house will not give me my win goal for the session... so I am willing to accept at least a 1/1 payout or even a 3/1 payout for 3oak (which often happens on the 2nd or 3rd drawn card out and wouldn't have given me my FH anyway) just for the chance at getting the 4oak.
In "STS" play you are playing to get a 4oak. If you play within the set parameters of when to change denominations (both up or down) then you are a winner whenever a 4oak is acheived. When using AP strategy your goal is to hit a Royal Flush before you have gone through 4000 credits. This is why playing the Full Pay machines is SO IMPORTANT to the "Advantage Player" when playing VP. With optimum holds you are "hopeful" that you can hang in there LONG enough without losing 4000 credits before that elusive Royal comes along.
In closing, I want to point out to Eduardo and the rest of the forum that to try to compare one type of play with the other by asking "Who will be ahead after 500 hands?"or "Which is better 500 people playing short term or 1 AP player?" is both misguided and impossible to answer for the following reasons. When playing "STS" you change denominations at self determined/preset intervals depending upon how many credits you are down...You have a session bankroll that you will NOT violate when you occasionally reach your "stop-loss" point. Therefore, you may or may not play 500 hands before your win goal or your stop-loss is attained. If you win your session then most of the time you are ahead of AP because you hit your 4oak on a higher denom(if 4oak is hit on starting denomination you will both obviously be the same or fractionally different depending upon how many non-optimal plays were hit or not hit). If you lose your session you will have went through your session bankroll alot quicker than the AP player due to changing your denom upwards at preset intervals. This keeps me from having to play for hours and hours to reach my goals...unlike the average AP player who HAS to sit and play longer by design of the strategy to reach his goal.
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Eduardo
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2963
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:19 pm
Is it your contention that 500 people doing exactly what you do will bring home more money from the casino? Or will some of those 500 do better and some of them do badly enough that it's a wash?
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royal flush
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1117
- Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:50 pm
no the 500 people should go to a park and take a walk for excersize as they would not lose money on his system
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
Over time those playing a progressive strategy will end up with an average bet. An advantage player could simply always play approximately the same amount. Therefore, it is not true that a STS will get through a session any faster. That is simple math.
In addition, RD admits that utilizing expert strategy (that is, according to the math) is required, and then claims a STS will achieve better results utilizing poor strategy plays. Anyone who believes this kind of nonsense should have their head examined. Each and every BAD PLAY lowers a persons expectations. It makes no difference when the play occurs.
This is kind of amusing. One of the reasons the STS was supposedly developed was because it was claimed that advantage players would make too many errors to win over the long haul. So, instead it is asserted that adding MORE errors will lead to wins.
In addition, RD admits that utilizing expert strategy (that is, according to the math) is required, and then claims a STS will achieve better results utilizing poor strategy plays. Anyone who believes this kind of nonsense should have their head examined. Each and every BAD PLAY lowers a persons expectations. It makes no difference when the play occurs.
This is kind of amusing. One of the reasons the STS was supposedly developed was because it was claimed that advantage players would make too many errors to win over the long haul. So, instead it is asserted that adding MORE errors will lead to wins.
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BOOPSAHOY
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1625
- Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2006 5:20 pm
I believe people should play the way they want to-HOWEVER-I used to always throw away the 2nd pair in 2 pair with a pair of j,q,k's-but after reading so much that it was wrong I decided to try keeping the 2nd pair and I truly believe I have more winning sessions and defimitely longer playing time on the same money. Those fullhouses keep you playing SOO much longer.
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rolanddude
- Senior Member
- Posts: 344
- Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:01 pm
Every hold for AP is calculated to be optimal for "hanging in there" until a Royal surprises you. The mathematical difference between these holds and the OCCASIONAL deviation that an STS player will choose are FRACTIONS OF A PENNY each. In a typical session you may be giving up a total of 3 to 4 CENTS of expected return in order to try and acheive a WIN GOAL.
You have to get out of your head the traps that a chronic gambler uses to justify his/her time played and strategy. Casinos love these accepted math strategies BECAUSE the house ALWAYS wins.
A great example of a Short Term goal oriented strategy is found in MULTI-STRIKE poker. Your overall goal on this game is to play hands at the 2X, 4X, and 8X levels. A player MUST deviate from the usual optimal holds in order to have a BETTER CHANCE to advance to the next level (ie...hold a JK instead of a pair of 8's, etc.) You make this seemingly illogical hold in order to have a better chance to attain your short term goal...reach the multiplier levels.
These holds are not ERRORS ... they are holds to give you a better CHANCE to reach a SHORT TERM GOAL... now I know that my example illustrates an optimal hold for THAT GAME and is mathematically correct for it but it puts into context what STS really is. If you are playing any VP game with a goal of getting 4oak you must make slightly different holds to reach your goal more often!! An AP player makes holds based on the necessity of hitting a ROYAL to win "over time" as shadowman states. STS players make holds based on hitting 4oaks to WIN their short-term goal ($20, $50, $100...whatever it is) more often. "Over Time" does not exist.
You can't play STS and look back over time. That would be like the Minnesota Twins winning the first game of a doubleheader 6-3 and then losing the second 2-1. The next day they lose 1-0. Their record would be 1-2 and they would have a LOSING record.. Now if shadowman was their manager he would proclaim that they won the series by a score of 7-6... when in fact they lost the series by losing 2 games against 1 win. By approaching your VP sessions as INDIVIDUAL games you do what you can to WIN that game. We don't crown champions based upon how many points they score over a long period of time, we crown champions based on how many games they win in a defined season. "Short Term"
And by the way... If my session bankroll is $400 and I am betting more per hand than you and lose... how can you say that my session will not be shorter than an AP player. Of course it will be shorter... because I will quit when I reach a $400 loss and I will have lost it faster. On the other hand, if I hit a 4oak within my defined session bankroll I WILL be "richer" than an AP player playing at my baseline denom because I will be betting more..."risk/reward".
You have to get out of your head the traps that a chronic gambler uses to justify his/her time played and strategy. Casinos love these accepted math strategies BECAUSE the house ALWAYS wins.
A great example of a Short Term goal oriented strategy is found in MULTI-STRIKE poker. Your overall goal on this game is to play hands at the 2X, 4X, and 8X levels. A player MUST deviate from the usual optimal holds in order to have a BETTER CHANCE to advance to the next level (ie...hold a JK instead of a pair of 8's, etc.) You make this seemingly illogical hold in order to have a better chance to attain your short term goal...reach the multiplier levels.
These holds are not ERRORS ... they are holds to give you a better CHANCE to reach a SHORT TERM GOAL... now I know that my example illustrates an optimal hold for THAT GAME and is mathematically correct for it but it puts into context what STS really is. If you are playing any VP game with a goal of getting 4oak you must make slightly different holds to reach your goal more often!! An AP player makes holds based on the necessity of hitting a ROYAL to win "over time" as shadowman states. STS players make holds based on hitting 4oaks to WIN their short-term goal ($20, $50, $100...whatever it is) more often. "Over Time" does not exist.
You can't play STS and look back over time. That would be like the Minnesota Twins winning the first game of a doubleheader 6-3 and then losing the second 2-1. The next day they lose 1-0. Their record would be 1-2 and they would have a LOSING record.. Now if shadowman was their manager he would proclaim that they won the series by a score of 7-6... when in fact they lost the series by losing 2 games against 1 win. By approaching your VP sessions as INDIVIDUAL games you do what you can to WIN that game. We don't crown champions based upon how many points they score over a long period of time, we crown champions based on how many games they win in a defined season. "Short Term"
And by the way... If my session bankroll is $400 and I am betting more per hand than you and lose... how can you say that my session will not be shorter than an AP player. Of course it will be shorter... because I will quit when I reach a $400 loss and I will have lost it faster. On the other hand, if I hit a 4oak within my defined session bankroll I WILL be "richer" than an AP player playing at my baseline denom because I will be betting more..."risk/reward".
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rolanddude
- Senior Member
- Posts: 344
- Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:01 pm
...and defimitely longer playing time on the same money. Those fullhouses keep you playing SOO much longer.
I rest my case!
If your goal is to play SOO much longer then play AP...
If your goal is to win money... STS
It is a battle between the entertainment value/addiction approach VS. the short term/goal oriented approach.
We don't play for quote "longer playing time" (to be interpreted "it took me longer to lose my money") as one HAS to with AP strategy. We play to WIN MONEY. If I play 5 minutes and hit a 4oak or better... I quit because I have reached my goal... I am able to WALK AWAY!!! I enjoy my winnings by doing something else...
If you feel that you somehow are a winner because you can play longer on the same amount of money...that is admitting that you will lose, it only takes longer...
I rest my case!
If your goal is to play SOO much longer then play AP...
If your goal is to win money... STS
It is a battle between the entertainment value/addiction approach VS. the short term/goal oriented approach.
We don't play for quote "longer playing time" (to be interpreted "it took me longer to lose my money") as one HAS to with AP strategy. We play to WIN MONEY. If I play 5 minutes and hit a 4oak or better... I quit because I have reached my goal... I am able to WALK AWAY!!! I enjoy my winnings by doing something else...
If you feel that you somehow are a winner because you can play longer on the same amount of money...that is admitting that you will lose, it only takes longer...
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Eduardo
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2963
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:19 pm
Rolan, I think anyone would agree that playing "short term" is more likely to come out ahead for more people (in the short term), but also likely to bomb out with no chance for recovery, which would, of course, lead someone to play more or go home a loser. That's what setting limits is all about and many people here do it.
But I'm not sure it really makes much difference for the average player out there. Are you ready to walk away now and never play again? If not, at what point have you moved from playing "short term" to "long term?" Next trip? The one after that?
Winning more sessions means almost nothing if the losing sessions more than make up for the wins. So until you can actually share what percentage of people will lose their entire bankroll on your strategy, the number of wins is rather meaningless.
My question was simple and I'll say it again:
Will 500 people playing the same way you do take more money or less money from the casino than an individual playing the same number of hands as all 500 of them?
I would venture to say that even if the hold strategies were just slightly different, you would have a lot of winners in the group of 500, some real losers, and at the end of the day, the casino would LOVE to have those people playing your strategy. Players like you.
And unless you are willing to walk away a winner or a loser, you aren't playing "short term" at all.
But I'm not sure it really makes much difference for the average player out there. Are you ready to walk away now and never play again? If not, at what point have you moved from playing "short term" to "long term?" Next trip? The one after that?
Winning more sessions means almost nothing if the losing sessions more than make up for the wins. So until you can actually share what percentage of people will lose their entire bankroll on your strategy, the number of wins is rather meaningless.
My question was simple and I'll say it again:
Will 500 people playing the same way you do take more money or less money from the casino than an individual playing the same number of hands as all 500 of them?
I would venture to say that even if the hold strategies were just slightly different, you would have a lot of winners in the group of 500, some real losers, and at the end of the day, the casino would LOVE to have those people playing your strategy. Players like you.
And unless you are willing to walk away a winner or a loser, you aren't playing "short term" at all.
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royal flush
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:50 pm
advantage play always works long run also during losing sessions the player loses less and life is a continous session not hit and run with few good games left i play more live poker against tourists. i enjoy vp and play the games on this site for entertainment as like real vp many games on here are below 100% games. so for $60 per year go gold and keep your own score as webman keeps giving more credits if you lose them.
