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Hey experts. discussion item:
Do the odds increase for big hand hits on Spin Poker over 10 hand play?
While we play MH our daughter plays Spin. She has caught several 4-5 ways Deuces/Ace and Deuces. Don't recall us hitting 4-5 deuces or D/A playing 10 hands even when hold 3 deuces. I caught only 5 out 40 once this weekend.
Spin vs Multi-hand
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New2vp
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1850
- Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:02 am
Certainly you are going to get more multiple quads with Spin Poker than with 10-play in situations when you are dealt trips. With each hand in single play, you would have a 2/47 chance for quads. The comparison would be more appropriate between Spin Poker and 9-play since there are only 9 lines in Spin Poker. With Spin Poker or 9-play you can expect 9 x 2/47 = 0.3830 sets of quads; with 10-play, it is 10 x 2/47 = 0.4255.When dealt trips 2's, you have a 32% chance of getting at least 1 set of quad deuces with 9-play (35% with 10-play) but only 13% with Spin Poker. But each of the Spin Poker quads will be multiple quads. If one of the held cards was the center card, each time you get the 4th deuce (6/47 of the time), you will have 3 sets of quad deuces. If the center card is not held, a drawn deuce in the center position can produce 5 sets of quads.With 9-play or 10-play you have only a 5 to 6% chance of multiple quads. The variance in terms of the number of quads is nearly 3 times as high with Spin Poker. So, you would certainly notice more monster hands with Spin Poker than with 10-play. You would get 15 times as many hands with 3 sets of quads and 290 times as many hands with 5 sets of quads.Now, it is true that you can never get more than 5 sets of quads with Spin Poker in this situation whereas it is remotely possible to get that many with 9-play (2.2 million to 1 odds) or 10-play (930,000 to 1 odds). Needless to say, you probably aren't going to observe much difference in the frequencies in actual play.You won't see many instances of getting multiple sets of quads when drawing to a pair (instead of drawing to trips) with Spin Poker, but you will still see more of these than you will when playing 10-play.
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Lucky Larry
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2693
- Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:35 pm
New2VP,
Thanks for the detailed analysis. The multiple 5 quad hits our daughter has been hitting really struck me since we both play DW and DWB. She seemed to be getting many more multiple deuces than we were on 10 - 20 play.
I understand the overall percentage pay back on Spin is based on the pay tables but the big hits just seemed to be bigger. I know the rest is "nano timing". Maybe, "Older is slower...."
L
Thanks for the detailed analysis. The multiple 5 quad hits our daughter has been hitting really struck me since we both play DW and DWB. She seemed to be getting many more multiple deuces than we were on 10 - 20 play.
I understand the overall percentage pay back on Spin is based on the pay tables but the big hits just seemed to be bigger. I know the rest is "nano timing". Maybe, "Older is slower...."
L
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New2vp
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1850
- Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:02 am
Well, your feel for the increased frequency was right on. So, maybe you can use that magic feel to help the timing, too.
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Lucky Larry
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2693
- Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:35 pm
Well, your feel for the increased frequency was right on. So, maybe you can use that magic feel to help the timing, too.
Wish there were a scientific way to test those "feelings' events besides anecdotally. I usually try to verbalize them to Ms. L or someone nearby. Sometimes it is an instantaneous feeling that a specific hand is going to be dealt. Other times it is the sub conscious idea to hold longer to hit the button to get the redraw cards. When this first began to happen it was scary (I would close my eyes and wait for the internal signal to have me hit the button) and get the big hit.
Sometimes its just a feeling to immediately change games or the number of hands. Or to hit the turbo button or change deal/draw buttons. RF hits seem to be the strongest. Many times playing multi-hand even with 2 or 3 to RF I get a sensation letting my know that this hand will become a RF or not. Sometimes the feeling comes before the draw. That is scary when that feeling occurs before the deal and 2-3-4 to RF show up. It is more right than wrong based on my notes. When it comes of out the "blue" and hits it sends s shiver threw me. I find it happening most when I have cleared my mind and am playing rote. It is almost like getting into a zone. It must have to do with the conscious or sub-conscious being cleared and focused. Anyway, I for one try to accept and act upon the signs/feeling one can get.
Wish there were a scientific way to test those "feelings' events besides anecdotally. I usually try to verbalize them to Ms. L or someone nearby. Sometimes it is an instantaneous feeling that a specific hand is going to be dealt. Other times it is the sub conscious idea to hold longer to hit the button to get the redraw cards. When this first began to happen it was scary (I would close my eyes and wait for the internal signal to have me hit the button) and get the big hit.
Sometimes its just a feeling to immediately change games or the number of hands. Or to hit the turbo button or change deal/draw buttons. RF hits seem to be the strongest. Many times playing multi-hand even with 2 or 3 to RF I get a sensation letting my know that this hand will become a RF or not. Sometimes the feeling comes before the draw. That is scary when that feeling occurs before the deal and 2-3-4 to RF show up. It is more right than wrong based on my notes. When it comes of out the "blue" and hits it sends s shiver threw me. I find it happening most when I have cleared my mind and am playing rote. It is almost like getting into a zone. It must have to do with the conscious or sub-conscious being cleared and focused. Anyway, I for one try to accept and act upon the signs/feeling one can get.
