Winning at VP

[pokeherguy]

I don't think it's possible but I talked to a guy who said he had been going to the casinos for as long as they have been there and he spends 99% of the time playing VP and the other 1% playing slots. According to him he goes about 10 times a month and sometimes plays all day while other times he plays just a couple of hours and he says he wins money every year. I have played for years myself and know all the right plays and have actually came out ahead on a couple of years but I don't see how its possible to win over the long run. I did tell him about this site and that I had noticed in one of the post where someone had made mention to playing video poker for a living or as a second income but I thought it was a joke. Are there actually people who can do this on a regular basis? Like I said I play all the time and just don't see how its possible to rely on regular wins because I have had some terrible losing streaks in between wins all of which was out of my control. The only thing I have found to be true is the more you win the more you play and lose. But I sure enjoy enjoy playing whether I win a little or lose a little.  

[shadowman]

I'm the one who said I made money every year. I have both winning and losing streaks just like anyone who plays regulary. Although I hate losing streaks just as much as the next guy I understand that the only thing that counts is my results at year end. I do know some people who do this for a living (not me) but that would be extremely stressful. Most of them are young and single.
 
The fact I've won each year has to do with my edge. If I had an edge of .1 or .2% then it' very unlikely I could do this. However, I play at many casinos and my edge is anywhere from .5 to 2.5%. One example, for nearly a month the Orleans had full pay Loose Deuces (101.6 ER) with cashback of .3% and bounce back of .3%. On double point days you get an edge of 2.5%. Although this play is now gone there are others available.
 
I've only seen these types of plays in NV. They used to have some 1% positive plays in MS when I was last there 4 years ago. It sounds like they may be gone.
 

[pokeherguy]

Can you tell me a good book to read or where I could get information that would help? I notice you are well aware of the payback percentage of the machines you play and that you obviously have more knowledge than I as far as playing VP goes. You also have a better selection of machines to play. The positive payback VP machines as far as I know do not exist at the Grand and if they do anywhere at Tunica it sounds like I need to find them. To give you an example as I was driving down highway 61 which leads to all the casino I noticed a billboard advertising 90% payback VP at Fitzgeralds Casino. To be truthfull with you I have never entertained the possibility of being able to profit from VP because I always thought that when you think you have it figured out that is when they have you. I have been able to come out ahead the last couple of years and these profits came with increased play on my part. The 2006 was my best year by far as I played more and cashed more and when it was said and done I made a little over $5K. I was down a considerable amount until I made a late year charge which included a couple of decent slot jackpots that put me over the top. A lot of people consider me lucky but I have always felt in the end it was pretty much a wash-out because they never know how much I invested to hit the jackpots. I am however a little proud of the fact that as much as I played I have came out on top for the last couple years. I do admit though that I am a little ignorant of all the payback percentages and would like help in understanding how you go about getting this info.

[MikeA]

One place you can get generic paytable percentage of payback is here on Videopoker.com:
 
http://www.videopoker.com/insideScoop/payTables/
 
But, to get the more exotic paytable information, your best bet would be to get one of the VP simulators that allows you the ability to change the paytables to whatever you wish them to be.  They "usually" will tell you what the ER is considering the changes you've made.

[shadowman]

Can you tell me a good book to read or where I could get information that would help? I notice you are well aware of the payback percentage of the machines you play and that you obviously have more knowledge than I as far as playing VP goes. You also have a better selection of machines to play. The positive payback VP machines as far as I know do not exist at the Grand and if they do anywhere at Tunica it sounds like I need to find them.
 
MS state regs set the maximum VP payback at 100%. I doubt you will find anything better. You will need to factor in point multipliers and possibly bounceback cash to get over 100%. I'll give you couple of links that should help:
 
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/S.htm
 
http://www.videopokerreview.com/
 
I do admit though that I am a little ignorant of all the payback percentages and would like help in understanding how you go about getting this info.
 
I highly recommend Linda Boyd's book, "The Video Poker Edge" as a good place to start. I would look into anything by Jean Scott since she covers more than just VP.
 

[shadowman]

I am however a little proud of the fact that as much as I played I have came out on top for the last couple years.
 
A couple more comments. I was looking though one of the references I passed on and noticed that Fitzgeralds has 8|5|60 Super Aces (SA) which pays back 99.9%. This is a high variance game which you seem to enjoy. With cashback and perfect play this game yields >100% over time. They have 5 play .25 and dollar machines.
 
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/S_Fitz.htm
 
Also, you have clearly had better than average luck to have won over several years on less then 100% games. This is not unusual. Using Winpoker's ability to play hands automatically I have seen actual returns plus or minus 2% from expected returns on high variance games like DDB, TDB, SA, etc. for a million hands. One thing I have noticed about people who reside on the "plus" side of this curve is they seem to trust their intuition more than the other 95% of us. With no scientific evidence to support or discredit intuition I would advise those who have success with it to stay with it. The rest of us need to use mathematics to our advantage.
 

[pokeherguy]

You all don't know how much I appreciate the help. I am guilty of paying attention to my intuition probably more than I should but it did pay off for me a couple of weeks ago. I was on the way to Tunica but for some reason something kept telling me to stop at Southland (my least favorite place). I was actually having a argument with myself about stopping there and driving on down to Tunica. I decided to I would go in for 15 minutes and if I lost $100 I would just go back home. The very first machines I played gave me 4 of a kind twice ($250), quad/2's and quad/4's followed by four aces. I actually made the comment to a guy playing beside me that the only thing the machine had not given me was a royal flush so naturally a few hands later thats what it did. I also hit quad/A's on a $2 max bet before I left for the house. The next day I did go to Tunica and played a little ahead for a very long time and decided to play one last machine at $2 max bet (something I had'nt done all day) the first hand out of the box I was dealt A-C, Q-C, K-C, J-D, 10-C so we all know the J-D had to go and sure enough card up J-C $8K royal. Had I not listened to my intuition none of this would have ever happened. I'm not saying I get this feeling very often but for some reason it does hit me hard sometimes. 

[shadowman]

... the first hand out of the box I was dealt A-C, Q-C, K-C, J-D, 10-C so we all know the J-D had to go and sure enough card up J-C $8K royal.
 
Now you're trying to make me feel bad.
 
So far this year I'm 0 for 125 for one card draws on top of missing my last 28 tries last year. Looks like I'm trying to surpass my 0 for 200 streak(over 9 months) last year.

[cddenver]

 
Now you're trying to make me feel bad.
 
So far this year I'm 0 for 125 for one card draws on top of missing my last 28 tries last year. Looks like I'm trying to surpass my 0 for 200 streak(over 9 months) last year.
 
(Laughing)  That's a pretty bad run...Last week I was playing 100 play on this site and was dealt 4 to the royal - and picked it up on *6* lines.  Make you feel better? (evil grin).  Never done that in real life.
 
*My* current real life gripe is ACES.  I've already had two 20-hour dry spells this year - in one now.  Been about 6 sessions since I've hit 'em.

[shadowman]

*My* current real life gripe is ACES.  I've already had two 20-hour dry spells this year - in one now.  Been about 6 sessions since I've hit 'em.
 
Sounds like my luck with deuces. So far this year I'm averaging over 11000 hands between ducks playing various versions of deuces wild. More than twice what it should be. Seems like the only game that I have any luck with this year is good ole Jacks or Better. I'm over 100% without a RF.