Do you think four-of-a-kinds come in spurts?

[FloridaPhil]

Is it my imagination or do 4-of-kinds come in spurts?  Seems like if I find a machine that gives one, it will usually give another in the next 50 hands or so.   I know draws are totally random, but it sure seems to be this way.   Three times lately I've watched someone hit a 4-of-a-kind next to me and walk away from the machine.  After they leave, I moved over and hit a couple of great jackpots right after they left.  I'm sure it's just luck, but it keeps happening.  I consider it bad manners to tell them about it if they return... 

[BOOPSAHOY]

I usually stay for a few hands after hitting a 4tree just in case!

[BillyJoe]

Is it my imagination or do 4-of-kinds come in spurts?  Seems like if I find a machine that gives one, it will usually give another in the next 50 hands or so.   I know draws are totally random, but it sure seems to be this way.   Three times lately I've watched someone hit a 4-of-a-kind next to me and walk away from the machine.  After they leave, I moved over and hit a couple of great jackpots right after they left.  I'm sure it's just luck, but it keeps happening.  I consider it bad manners to tell them about it if they return... 
Are U kidding, Phil - I gloat.
If they come back, I say "Thanks for freeing up this machine - it's paying great !"
Actually, I believe it is just random. I usually just try and find a machine that I am comfortable at, assuming the pay tables and game selections of available machines are the same.

[New2vp]

Phil, there is nothing incompatible between random independent draws and 4-of-a-kinds coming in spurts.  As a matter of fact random independent draws require more of the quads coming in spurts than being isolated.With 9-6 Jacks or Better, we see quads every 423 hands on average.  Let's look at what we would expect from 10,000 different sessions of 423 hands each.  37% of those sessions would have no quads and another 37% would have only 1 quad.  That leaves us 26% of the sessions to get the other quads.  But those 26% of the sessions will have 63% of the quads in the entire sample.Asked another way.  If you got a quad, what is the chance that it came in a session with at least double the expected (average) number of quads for that session?  The answer:  63% of quads come in sessions that have at least double the average rate; 26% of quads come in sessions that have at least triple the normal rate of quads, but only 8% of the sessions actually have at least 3 times the normal rate.Numbers in the table below are rounded to integers.




quads in
session
# of sessions
# of quads hit


0
3674
0


1
3683
3683


2
1842
3683


3
612
1837


4
152
610


5
30
151


6
5
30


7 or more
1
6


TOTAL
10000
10000


 
 
 


3 or more
801
2634


2 or more
2642
6317

   

[FloridaPhil]

Very interesting information.  Now, if I could just manage to stay home on those no-quad days!     Lately, I have been beginning my sessions at a low denomination and moving up only if I hit a quad.  I play mostly DDB and it seems to help me through the slow times and lets me play longer with my session budget.  Of course, sometimes I hit 4As at the lower coin, but that's not all that bad...

[spxChrome]

Now some match genius figure out and tell me the odds of playing 3,600 of DDB hands without getting 1 quad?  I'd like to know because I have done this several times.
 
I also have gotten dealt trip Aces 96 times before finally get the last Ace.  That has to be pretty low odds as well.
 

[BillyJoe]

Now some match genius figure out and tell me the odds of playing 3,600 of DDB hands without getting 1 quad?  I'd like to know because I have done this several times.
 
I also have gotten dealt trip Aces 96 times before finally get the last Ace.  That has to be pretty low odds as well.
 
Well, all I know is, each hand is an independent event. Those numbers above from New2VP might be correct for the entire universe of VP being played, but the "Law of Independent Trials" holds. For each of us, at any given time, on any given hand, it is 52 cards. If you are trying to draw a single card, such as a fourth Ace to complement the 3 Aces/kicker that you held, you have about a 2% chance (1 in 47) to succeed, regardless of how many times you, the individual, have attempted it before.
And THAT is why the casinos offer VP at all - the odds are in their favor..
 

[SLaPiNFuNK]

I know someone who was DEALT AAAA w/ kicker on the same machine twice within 10 minutes of being paid out for the first one.

Ive had back to back 4oak's before on the draw.

You never know...

[rayj]

Once the wife got up to visit the ladies room and I caught 5 4OAKduring the time she was gone (10 mins).....no A/2/3or 4 though.I also once watched an oriental girl hit aces like 10 times in one hour.She caught one kicker on all of those.   I thought it was incredible!I know you folks will say it's random, but I have my suspicions...likeafter dumping 3-4 hundred into one machine, I'll be damned if it doesn'tstart paying off....   Weird....

[Frank Kneeland]

Random does not mean there won't be spurts and droughts. It means you can't predict them. We know a coin is random. Would you expect to flip a coin and have it alternate between heads/tails/heads/tails forever? Streaks are part of randomness.VP machines are random, and you would have to play around the clock for about a year, to go through a single set of the combinations one gets, drawing to a 52 card deck.It is not possible for you as an individual to watch enough VP to draw any conclusions about it. I know from managing a team of 88 players for a year it is totally on the level.Hope this helps.~Frank Kneeland, Author of The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives--A History and How-To of Video Poker Slot Teams in Las Vegas.  www.progressivevp.com