QUAD DROUGHT

[damule]

This weekend I was in Vegas and experienced the longest steak that I can remember without quads. I play a variety of games, mostly near or over 100% return. For the most part this weekend I played full-pay 3/5 Quick Quads at The South Point where I did get a fair share of quads (Quick and conventional) and I managed to win.


 
However, Saturday night we drove over to Red Rock and I played 10/6 DDB in the non-smoking area. This game with optimal play returns slightly over 100%. A large part of that return is the expectation that quads will be hit on a fairly normal/average basis. I'm not quite sure what the norm is, but I would expect 1 quad appr every 300 hands or so. Well, within the first few hands I did get quad 5's. After that I played for appr another 2 1/2 hours and did not get anymore quads. Keep in mind, I do play fairly fast (over 1000+ hands/hour) with a negligible error rate. Thats over 2500 hands without a single quad. I did receive what I would consider a normal amount of dealt trips, etc, but I could just not catch another quad. I would like to know what the probability is of going 2500 hands on that game with optimal play without a quad is if anyone can help with that. It seems like quite a drought.
 
Another oddity during this weekend trip was how many times I was dealt trip aces playing only DDB and TDB and not pull quad aces. I was dealt trip aces between 40-45 times and did not get 1 quad. This also seemed the case for the most part on dealt bonus low trips. I only got quad aces once the whole weekend and it happened this morning playing TDB Quick Quads where I held 1 ace and got the quad with kicker for 4000 credits.
 
Combined, between the drought of quads during those 2500 or so hands and the drought of striking out on so many trip aces, I had never experienced anything like that before in 20+ years of playing video poker.

[backsider]

Something tells me a certain someone is going to appear, but because its you he wont serve his usual helping of "When are players going to learn that theyre only experincing randomness in action when they run into droughts or hit the lucky streaks"? For my part, Ive been to Red rock 3 times in my life and ive never hit anything above a normal quad while losing all 3 times. Ive always thought the machines are fixed at that place, so it may be that youre experiencing that. At least you got the aces today, I never have.

[damule]

Something tells me a certain someone is going to appear, but because its you he wont serve his usual helping of "When are players going to learn that theyre only experincing randomness in action when they run into droughts or hit the lucky streaks"?
 
For my part, Ive been to Red rock 3 times in my life and ive never hit anything above a normal quad while losing all 3 times. Ive always thought the machines are fixed at that place, so it may be that youre experiencing that. At least you got the aces today, I never have.

 
 
Of course what I experienced was perfectly normal due to the randomness of the game. I'm not looking to uncover "fixed" machines or anything of the sort. As a matter of fact, Station Casinos (Red Rock included) are known, especially to locals as having some of the fairest games and odds in all of Las Vegas. What I'm merely stating are the facts of my latest trip and what I'm asking is what the probability of such a drought is. And yes, that "certain someone" (shadowman), being that math was his profession would be the "perfect someone" to answer my question.
 
 

[Lucky Larry]

damule,
I am always amazed at how streaks in VP can occur.

LL

[shadowman]

The cycle time for a quad playing DDB is about 420 hands. That means you went about 6 cycles without a quad. I've gone around 3000 hands a couple of times playing triple play. It's not any fun.
 
Hitting a dealt 3 of a kind occurs once every 23.5 hands. So, failing 45 attempts is close to 2 cycles. Not really that unusual.
 
I don't know the actual percentages but I would think 6 cycles is in the .01% range or less. Maybe new2vp will drop by and give us the exact number.

[damule]

Thanks shadow. I knew it was unusual but certainly not unheard of. I was not as surprised about not hitting the quad aces as I knew the odds there were 47-2. The game that does skew those odds somewhat though is TDB when dealt 3 aces with held kicker. For each of those holds the odds are 47-1.

 
Fortunately, I had some very good luck with Quick Quads hitting quads often to offset the losses at Red Rock 10/6. So the weekend trip was actually profitable.

[shadowman]

So the weekend trip was actually profitable.


 
Always acceptable. Though one always hopes for the big win.

[spxChrome]

I once went 4,500 hundred hands without a quad playing DDB 9/6.
 
Also my longest dry Aces streak is dealt trips 93 times.
 
My worst drought ever is dealt 7's to dealt 5's in about 8,500 hands.  That one hurt.
 
But here lately it is not unusual to go 2k on 9/6 DDB or 9/7 TDB without gettting a quad.  Its a actually a running joke in my circle. 
 

[OTABILL]

Mule:
 
I once went 6 hours at Harrah's Ak-Chin playing TDB without hitting quads. Now I am not the fastest player nor do I count hands so I have no idea how many hands I played but it was alot. Went home without one. BTW, speaking of Red Rock, my wife had a similar experience with both of us not hitting quads hours on end the only time we have been there. It was a nice place and given the success of others here we will give it another shot. Hopefully, we will do better the next time.

[Tomcat1569]

I used to play at Red Rock but no more. Heard too many tales of woe from losing locals and others, in addition to my own poor experiences there. Out of 5-6 trips there I never left winner once, and I consider myself a decent player. This leads me to believe something is definitely up with the machines there. Best hand I ever had there was 4A dealt in five play dimes Super Times Pay. I caught 2 out of 5 kickers. However this was after I was already down several hundred for the night. Don't recall ever hitting a royal there.