Draw to 3 Dealt Aces Not Random?

[xfile1971]

For many years now, my friend and I have noticed that the cards are not random when you are dealt 3 Aces.  Since I almost always play multi-hand games, it is very noticeable.  What occurs unnaturally is a term that I have coined called the "one-off".  You get the 4 card in the suit of which you are trying to draw the Ace of far too often.  In other words, if you need the Ace of Hearts to get your 4 of a kind, you are much more likely to get the 4 of Hearts instead.After years of telling my friend that I was going to keep track of the phenomenon, I FINALLY did it for my last big gambling binge.Out of the 563 cards I drew after getting dealt 3 Aces, I filled in the fourth Ace 6 times (or once in about 94 cards drawn).  How many times did I get the 4 of the suit I needed?  An amazing 19 times!  Unless my numbers are off, on average I believe you should have gotten each card about 12 times.Obviously, just ONE trip wouldn't necessarily mean much since the overall number of hands is small compared to the millions played in a lifetime but this happens EVERY SINGLE TIME I go gambling.Has anyone else ever noticed this phenomenon?  I believe the 4 is the specific card that comes out because it looks so much like the Ace and it looks like you "almost" got the card you needed.  I find it obnoxious and suspiciously non-random. 

[shadowman]

Where do you play?

[BillyJoe]

Well, I am not doubting your observations, XFile, but I, for one, have not focused on something like that. I play a lot of TDB, so Aces are certainly a premium hand. I do know that, for each draw to three Aces, you have a 1 in 47 chance of chance, then a 1 in 46 chance (assuming you are drawing two cards) for each line played. What happens on one line has no effect on any other line in a multi-line game. As such, your odds of success are pretty long, and I would have to say that you would have to have had the opportunity to draw to thousands of trip Aces before you would approach the anticipated degree of success.
 
I am heading to Vegas this week, so of course, this will be on my mind anytime I am fortunate to get trip Aces. I will certainly let you know what I observe.  

[shadowman]

Billyjoe, you are correct that the odds are 1 in 23.5 (the combination of 1:47 and 1:46) of hitting the fourth ace when holding 3 aces. So, in the situation above the result should have been around 24 quad aces (563/23.5). Hence, the number of hits was below average for both the ace and the four.
 
While the number of trials is not particularly high, it is enough to start being suspicious. That is why I asked about the casino. I think the first thing that needs to be determined is whether the machines are standard VP machines or VLT/Class II games.
 
 

[BillyJoe]

Billyjoe, you are correct that the odds are 1 in 23.5 (the combination of 1:47 and 1:46) of hitting the fourth ace when holding 3 aces. So, in the situation above the result should have been around 24 quad aces (563/23.5). Hence, the number of hits was below average for both the ace and the four.
 
While the number of trials is not particularly high, it is enough to start being suspicious. That is why I asked about the casino. I think the first thing that needs to be determined is whether the machines are standard VP machines or VLT/Class II games.
 
 
Well, I know there are no bingo games or genies flying through your hand on the Strip's VP machines, so I am going to try and keep an eye out next week for any pattern like that.

[random_ness]

For many years now, my friend and I have noticed that the cards are not random when you are dealt 3 Aces.  Since I almost always play multi-hand games, it is very noticeable.  What occurs unnaturally is a term that I have coined called the "one-off".  You get the 4 card in the suit of which you are trying to draw the Ace of far too often.  In other words, if you need the Ace of Hearts to get your 4 of a kind, you are much more likely to get the 4 of Hearts instead.After years of telling my friend that I was going to keep track of the phenomenon, I FINALLY did it for my last big gambling binge.Out of the 563 cards I drew after getting dealt 3 Aces, I filled in the fourth Ace 6 times (or once in about 94 cards drawn).  How many times did I get the 4 of the suit I needed?  An amazing 19 times!  Unless my numbers are off, on average I believe you should have gotten each card about 12 times.Obviously, just ONE trip wouldn't necessarily mean much since the overall number of hands is small compared to the millions played in a lifetime but this happens EVERY SINGLE TIME I go gambling.Has anyone else ever noticed this phenomenon?  I believe the 4 is the specific card that comes out because it looks so much like the Ace and it looks like you "almost" got the card you needed.  I find it obnoxious and suspiciously non-random. 

Take out excel, use the command =BINOM.DIST(6, 563, 1/23.5, TRUE), it gives you the probability of 6 or less aces draws given 563 trials with a probability of 1/23.5. The answer is 0.0000101.

There was a mistake in my earlier calculation, I somehow used a number different than 563 and just fixed it.

[Quad Deuces]

Since he says he drew 563 cards trying to fill trip aces, he was obviously holding kickers some of the time, or the number of cards drawn would be even, making drawing the fourth ace less likely.So how many times were you drawing one card vs. two?

[random_ness]

Since he says he drew 563 cards trying to fill trip aces, he was obviously holding kickers some of the time, or the number of cards drawn would be even, making drawing the fourth ace less likely.So how many times were you drawing one card vs. two?




I interpreted it as 563 times he drew to aces in my calculation and just a bit of an error in the grammar. If its something else, we would have to change the calculation.

[Quad Deuces]

Right.  To about half as many cards drawn.  With at least some of them at higher odds against hitting the ace.

[Quad Deuces]

For many years now, my friend and I have noticed that the cards are not random when you are dealt 3 Aces.  Since I almost always play multi-hand games, it is very noticeable.  What occurs unnaturally is a term that I have coined called the "one-off".  You get the 4 card in the suit of which you are trying to draw the Ace of far too often.  In other words, if you need the Ace of Hearts to get your 4 of a kind, you are much more likely to get the 4 of Hearts instead.So let me get this straight.You are playing a multi-line game.You draw to three aces.You take the time to examine the cards to see how many times you hit a four of the same suit as the ace you need.And you think the casino is really trying to make the multi-line players do a double take and their best Maxwell Smart, "missed it by...that much." ???And this is your Vegas Strip Video Poker is Rigged evidence?I held three deuces and hit four out of ten lines for the fourth deuce once.  That has to offset at least some of your experience. Maybe you should play at my casino instead.  Their games are heavily biased toward the player and against the casino.Was dealt Aces+kicker playing multi-line deuces wild once.  Obviously the casino trying to goad me into playing a higher-volatility game.