Over betting your bank roll for a large advantage

[ACVPchamp]

I have found a fairly decent advantage play in my area. I'm considering over betting my bank roll since it is only available in a larger denomination. The advantage is .4% cash back(available instantly after accruing) and every $500 coin in I will randomly be awarded $5-$5,000 in free slot play available instantly. If I were to receive $5 every time It will add %1 to the game. Thats volatility free guaranteed percentage. If I average $10 per free bonus offer its %2. I'd like to put my estimate around 2% since I assume if I play long enough I'm bound to get something higher than $5. I will be playing either 9/6 JoB(99.54) or 8/5/35 BP(99.66).

I'm leaning towards the BP which would let me play at %102.06(%101.06 guaranteed)

I'm planning on using a bankroll of 200 credits. To go bust on ithis would be a large ammount for me and greatly affect my long term bank roll. Does anyone think that this is worth it? Wat are my chances of going bust.?

[BillyJoe]

Well, you ALWAYS have the chance of busting out, since the casino has the advantage, even on positive EV games. I would say that your choice is - do you want to play off of your bankroll for a while, or do you want to score big? You obviously know the math.
I happen to be in that group that, while I will try and seek out the best available pay table, would rather play games that I enjoy, even if I sacrifice on the pay table. I only play where I am comped and earning FreePlay.
I was in AC recently, playing a $1 Five Star Poker Double Pay 9/7 TDB @ Caesars, which should have yielded a pretty good return. It did not, even though I had a sizeable bankroll.  
I plugged some numbers into Dancer's VPW for your BP example. I assumed a $5 single line, $25 max bet, 2% casino slot club return. For a 200 credit ($1000) bankroll, the tool says that you have over a 94% chance of going broke. To get down to a 5% chance of busting out, you need a bankroll of $51,000 to play that game at that level.
Good Luck... 

[damule]

...since the casino has the advantage, even on positive EV games... 

 
What???
 
 
Edited to add: I re-read your post billyjoe, and I think what you meant is that even on advantage games there is still a chance of busting (losing) one's bankroll.
 

[Quad Deuces]

200 credits is a small swing.  Trivial to go bust.

[ACVPchamp]

I'm sorry... I meant 200 bets, which is 1k credits.

My alterior motive is also to reach a higher tier level to generate more comps etc. for my enjoyment. So losing wouldnt be a total failure.

There is also the "gamble" of hitting bigger slot bonuses. I'm using a very conservative number and hoping for more

[pokernut1232001]

You do realize that most casinos do not comp the same on vp machines as slots right?  Did you take that into your calculations?  You usually need to bet more to even get $1 back.

[shadowman]

Billyjoe gave you the number. Around $50,000 to have a 95% chance of success. Even with $2500 your chance of success is still very low. Not a good bet.
 
Also keep in mind that casinos can pull special promotions like this at anytime. They may figure out their mistake and kill it while you are down. All advantage players have run into this once in awhile.

[BillyJoe]

I'm sorry... I meant 200 bets, which is 1k credits.

My alterior motive is also to reach a higher tier level to generate more comps etc. for my enjoyment. So losing wouldnt be a total failure.

There is also the "gamble" of hitting bigger slot bonuses. I'm using a very conservative number and hoping for more
OK, same 8/5 BP example, 2% slot club bonus, using a bankroll of $5,000 (1k $5 credits), VPW says that you have a 74.9% chance of going broke.
 
Have fun... 

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe] ...since the casino has the advantage, even on positive EV games... 

 
What???
 
 
Edited to add: I re-read your post billy joe, and I think what you meant is that even on advantage games there is still a chance of busting (losing) one's bankroll.
 [/QUOTE]
Mule, I understand your point, but I still feel as though the casinos have the advantage on positive EV VP games. If the casino did not feel that they had the advantage, the game would not be on their casino floor. 
 
You have to play perfect strategy, and have a bankroll to survive the dips, in order to achieve that positive EV. Most players do not have the knowledge, patience or money to do that consistently.

[Quad Deuces]

I haven't run any VPFW simulations because I don't know how many games this session is expected to be.I am assuming the $51000 figure billiejoe came up with is the amount needed to play this game forever with a 5% risk of ruin.  Playing one promotion at a denomination normally outside of your bankroll and switching to the higher denomination permanently are two different things.I don't see any way to tell VPFW to take comps into account when calculating short term bankroll.  But, according to VPFW, you would be able to play about 1743 games before you reached a 5% risk of losing all 1000 credits.  At that same point, you would have a 5.8% chance of having doubled your 1000 credits and walked away.  This is not taking the .4% nor the extra >= 1% for the $5-$1000 extra free play into account.Wolf Video Poker says you need an $11,500 bankroll to play this game (with 1.4% in cashback+comps) for 1,000,000 rounds with a 5% risk of ruin.  That's the calculation if you experience -3 standard deviations which it gives a 2.14% likelihood.OP are you going to hammer this promotion for tens of thousands of hands as long as it lasts or hit it for X many hours/games then quit?I'd play the hell out of it.  Works out to about $37/hour at 101.06%.If you do play it, be sure to log all the varying awards so you can get a better idea of the average.  Ask others what they received, etc for a bigger sample set.