Drawings with entry tickets (not virtual)

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littleray
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Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2009 7:39 pm

Drawings with entry tickets (not virtual)

Post by littleray »



Need a mathmatician to see if you can give me an answer on what the odds are on NOT being drawn in the following situation.  I cannot tell you how many total tickets are in the drum, but should be able to tell by # drawn not in our # player bracket (approximately).  Just looking for fairly accurate results, not perfect.  Here's the info: PLAYER        # TICKETS#1                          82#2                          82#3                          10#4                          10#5                          10#6                          10#7                          10#8                          10 DRAWINGS         WINNER1st                           #32nd                          #53rd                           #84th                           not listed above5th                           #66th                           #77th                         3 not listed, then #18th                         3 not listed, R.G.9th                         2 not listed, then #610th                         #811th                         #312th                       1 not listed, then #113th                         #514th                       3 not listed, then C. G.15th                       3 not listed, then T.B.16th                       1 not listed, then #417th                       1 not listed, then #4

BillyJoe
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Posts: 3198
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm

Post by BillyJoe »

Looks like 245 tickets. You must have been player #2, with 82 tickets, but not selected in any drawing.

Eduardo
Video Poker Master
Posts: 2963
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:19 pm

Post by Eduardo »





I don't know what RG, CG and TB are. So I'm going to assume those are players in your group. If so it looks like 18 draws were not in your group, out of 34 total (including redraws). Your group won 47% of the draws. So I'm guessing there are only 2 groups unless your group was really lucky, or we should probably base it on number of tickets. Your group had 224 tickets, there were possibly around 476 tickets (but this is a big approximation based on results and the number of draws your group got. Can't be trusted too far). The odds on each draw for you then would be 82/476 or  17.2% Odds of NOT beign drawn are 394/476 or 82.7% To not be chosen in 34 draws, you do 0.827 ^ 34. That would mean a 0.16% chance of never being drawn, if the numbers are correct. This also does not include removing a ticket each time, so is very very approximate. But much less than a 1% chance. Congratulations?  If you just do 17 draws, there is about a 4% chance of you not being drawn in 17 tries. But there could have been a lot more total tickets than these estimates.


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