What are the chances?

[olds442jetaway]

I was recently dealt 41 consecutive hands in 9/6 JOB  and never got even 2 pair or better. Could someone tell me the probability of this happening and or the formula so I can figure it out myself.  Prior to this I can't remember ever going more than the low 30's without getting at least 2 pair and that would be millions of hands over the last 20 years. Thanks.

[BVUGrad2003]

Do you mean you never received 2 pair of better on the initial deal, or your final hand was never 2 pair or better?

[DaBurglar]

This has become a common experience for me in my play in Atlantic City over the past year and half, long stretches of zero value or "Bust" hands followed by MORE long stretches, etc. You went 41 hands without getting at least 2 pair, but I assume you did receive some pairs of JACKS or better for an even money pay, right?  If so then technically this is NOT what I am talking about in that when I say "zero value/bust" I mean ZERO, not even a even money return of wager!    Still, you are justified to be a little miffed if this has become a regular common occurrence in your play at this particular casino.....I didnt start becoming concerned until I noticed a ongoing regularity to these blocks of hands, 25-30 in a row, and until I went back and noticed my overall rate of Zero Value hands was WAY ABOVE the expected rate of 55-60 percent.....   So let me first ask you what casino are you playing at to receive this apparent run of crapola?? And second, let me ask you what is your overall rate of ZERO value/Bust hands out of all your hands played.....if it is at or below 55 - 60 percent then you are just in the midst of a normal crappy spell.  If it is 65 percent or MORE and you have played over 100K hands, then you may have cause for concern about the machine(s) you are playing and the casino you are patronizing.....

[olds442jetaway]

The casino is Mohegan Sun in Ct.  I have noticed these long streaks during the past two years. Many other VP players have similar stories.  The Bust hands appear to be between 60 and 70%, but I have not calculated them exactly. Also quads are running in very long stretches without coming in.  5 or 6 hours or about 3,000 hands without quads is not rare anymore. When a quad does come in finally, it seems like another follows in less than 50 hands. Similar with full houses. none for a couple of hours then 4 or 5 lumped close together. Stuff like this used to be extremely rare. It is almost like they are trying to make sure you run out of time or money before good hands appear. I cannot prove this of course. It just seems very odd to only see it in the last two years and not the 18 prior ones!

[DaBurglar]

I rarely play at Mohegan even though I only live 2 hours away.  I prefer CITIES with multiple options, like AC and Vegas.  But AC, much Like Mohegan is in the crapper economically speaking, so it feeds the conspiracy fires when we see horrible VP sessions become commonplace when compared to previous times when the economy was flush. The last time I played Mohegan was about 15 months ago, and I actually found a single machine that had a Bonus Poker paytable that differed from all its neighboring machines, leading me to conclude it was a casino mistake or oversight.  The Bonus poker paytable was set at 9-6 instead of the usual 8-5 (or lower) common to most Bonus Poker games.  Even still, when I played it for nearly 2-1/2 hours I hit NOTHING, not a single stinkin QUAD, and mostly duds.  I ran well past 70 percent Bust hands, so I just left and have yet to return!

[BillyJoe]

I was recently dealt 41 consecutive hands in 9/6 JOB  and never got even 2 pair or better. Could someone tell me the probability of this happening and or the formula so I can figure it out myself.  Prior to this I can't remember ever going more than the low 30's without getting at least 2 pair and that would be millions of hands over the last 20 years. Thanks.
This is why I like to play games like TDB. I cannot imagine recovering from a stretch like that on JOB (short of an RF), but at least on TDB, you have some opportunities for premium quads that will help you recover. I know, TDB is a volatile game, but if JOB will not give you a 2 pair even, why bother?  

[shadowman]

I was recently dealt 41 consecutive hands in 9/6 JOB  and never got even 2 pair or better. Could someone tell me the probability of this happening and or the formula so I can figure it out myself.  Prior to this I can't remember ever going more than the low 30's without getting at least 2 pair and that would be millions of hands over the last 20 years. Thanks.


 
Let's see if I can scrape away some of the cobwebs.
 
The probability of hitting 2-pair or greater is .24 playing JOB. Hence, the probability of 41 consecutive results will be (.76)^41 which is equal to .000013. Which is about once in 77K.
 
Now, this process can start on any hand which meets the requirement of being less than 2-pair. Since this is around 3/4 of all hands this means it will happen to anyone playing JOB about once every 100K hands. Unusual but would happen to a regular player at least once a year.

[olds442jetaway]

Thanks for the math lesson. In that case, I should consider myself lucky since in about 6 million lifetime hands, this is the first time I have gone over 40 hands without even 2 pair. I have gone into the mid 20's many times more than I can count, but most of those have been during the last 2 years. At this point, I am actually considering switching to Double Down Stud either deuces or bonus deuces wild. I can't get any 99% paytables at Mohegan though on these machines and if I switch, I will be lucky to find a couple of machines in the 97-98% range. Those machines are very, very, streaky, but offer some big returns on certain combinations. Late last year, I played one for a diversion and was lucky enough to be dealt a Royal on one. It had been 9 years since that occured and it was even in the same suit with the same 5th card needed to complete the Royal.

[BobDancer]

[This is why I like to play games like TDB. I cannot imagine recovering from a stretch like that on JOB (short of an RF), but at least on TDB, you have some opportunities for premium quads that will help you recover. I know, TDB is a volatile game, but if JOB will not give you a 2 pair even, why bother?  Actually, one 4-of-a-kind would put you ahead (assuming that at least 17 of those 41 hands were a high pair). Whether you catch up today or not is largely irrelevant. You play many tens of thousands of hands a year, BJ. How well you recover on January 8 or any other date is just a small data point on your annual score. But even if you're trying to avoid getting buried today, JoB offers much more likelihood for this than TDB.You may well prefer TDB to JoB for your own reasons, but avoiding a big loss can't possibly be one of them. TDB is FULL of big loss sessions.Bob

[FloridaPhil]

This can and does happen.  I once played for three solid days in Biloxi and never got a single 4-of-a-kind.  Mississippi machines are regulated and I've had enough great trips to Biloxi to know they're not rigged.   Lots of players blame bad luck on rigged machines.  This subject usually brings out a ton of posts back and forth on the subject.   Most video poker games are rigged in the casino's favor, it says so right on the front...