Quick probability question

[olds442jetaway]

If Vman answers this, and you get out to Mohegan some day, we will try every beer brand they have your choice. On me of course. Recently, playing 9/6 JOB, I went 36 straight hands without even getting 2 pair or better. It worked out OK though because I caught quads twice just 2 hands apart right after. I would just like to know the probability of no 2 pair or better for the 36 straight hands. PS...anyone else who answers too, beer on me at Mohegan also. I should really brush up on the formulas which I used to know cold. If the formula appears too so much the better, but not necessary if it is too much extra work. Thanks. No urgency for a reply, unless of course you are thirsty and coming to Mohegan today. I should be there tonight assuming things are OK with the folks later.

[BillyJoe]

Quick probability answer - cold day in hell.

Scrap JOB and play TDB. Those even money 2 pairs will come in buckets.

[olds442jetaway]

As a matter of fact BJ, I have already scrapped job for the most part. This was a month or so ago. I am still playing various forms of Deuces Wild, but I just noticed that the 2 nickel Multi-Strike games have TDB in them. I am going to start playing it just on the bottom row at the nickel level to get my feet wet. Good paytable too over 98%. Without the Royal, job is a real loser game, but at least in TDB, I can come up with some other permium hands. I am tired of going for bunts, infield singles, and walks on job. I think a little swinging for the fences is in order at this point. If I do OK on the nickels in little league, I can move up to Jr. Majors with quarters, and if still good, maybe AA minor league ball on dollars. I never made it past Jr. Majors myself, but quarters with nice doubles and tripples will be fine for me. Also in that section where the Multi-Strike game is are the two super friendly and cute waitresses on the late night shift. They will also auto bring me a beer just before alcohol closing time which is when I get there sometimes. I just noticed I am getting a little wordy here similar to one of my other buddy posters.

[Tedlark]

Billy Joe sometimes swings so hard for the fences that his bat flies out of his grip and lands in the stands.

Word count = 25

[BillyJoe]

Also in that section where the Multi-Strike game is are the two super friendly and cute waitresses on the late night shift. They will also auto bring me a beer just before alcohol closing time which is when I get there sometimes.
It is always good to keep strong powers of observation during a gaming trip. Finding a place to play that is easiest on the eyes makes the game that much more enjoyable.

[wildman49]

olds442jetawayWithout the Royal, job is a real loser game, but at least in TDB, I can come up with some other permium hands. I am tired of going for bunts, infield singles, and walks on job.OLDS I understand everything you said about JOB without the royal its like treading water. Nothing wrong with that, the royal will come at some point on any given day. A few weeks back I played a 4 hour 9/6 JOB 10 coin nickel and had 14 four of a kinds and walked down $8.50 LOL . I play JOB about 70% of the time on the nickels, when it goes dry I change games for two or three hands per game as the pay tables on these nickles I play are not the best, then back to 9/6 JOB but I snag a few hits from time to time on them few hands. This was a 11 hour marathon my wife and I played from 10:30pm Saturday night to 9am Sunday morning. The first 2 hits was on the same machine.

[Minn. Fatz]

Not to step on Vman or anyone else's toes here but...

It depends on what kind of strategy you're playing. Assuming a near-optimal strategy, the wonderful Wizard of Odds gives a 76 percent probability of no better than one pair on a given hand of 9/6 JB. So your probability of not getting 2P or better over any 36 consecutive hands would be:

.76 ^ 36 = .0000512

or one in 19,530 trials. Somewhat worse odds than that kid winning the British Open by age 25 then...

[olds442jetaway]

Thanks Minn for the quick reply. Beer is on me if you ever get up this way. Hmmmm....so it looks like about the same as hitting a Royal in just a couple of hands. Not very good that is for sure, but it looks like it will happen every couple of weeks based on how many hands I play.

[olds442jetaway]

nice hits wildman

[Vman96]

Not to step on Vman or anyone else's toes here but...

It depends on what kind of strategy you're playing. Assuming a near-optimal strategy, the wonderful Wizard of Odds gives a 76 percent probability of no better than one pair on a given hand of 9/6 JB. So your probability of not getting 2P or better over any 36 consecutive hands would be:

.76 ^ 36 = .0000512

or one in 19,530 trials. Somewhat worse odds than that kid winning the British Open by age 25 then...

Haha, yeah I saw this but hadn't got around to it. Mainly because with the volume olds plays, the likelihood of seeing it at least once is nearly a certainty and I wanted to do the "streak calculation".

Probability of not getting 2 pair or better for 36 or more consecutive hands at least once playing the following amount of hands of 9/6 JoB:

36 hands: 0.0000512
1,000 hands: 0.011842
10,000 hands: 0.11543
50,000 hands: 0.45926
100,000 hands: 0.7077146
250,000 hands: 0.9538403
500,000 hands: 0.9978701
1,000,000 hands: 0.9999955