Pay Tables: So far......So bad
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ko king
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Pay Tables: So far......So bad
A few folks made comments regarding my thoughts that vp in my area has somehow, someway changed. While I understand that pay tables can and certaintly do make a difference over the long term most have failed to notice that I have mentioned more than once that changes in pay tables have not been a factor in the machines I have been playing. There are casinos in this area that have reduced pay tables on certain games, some have reduced pay tables on all vp games, I know these casinos well and avoid them. I've scouted this area pretty well and know where the good and bad can be found on my games of choice (DDB and TDB). I know where $1 denomination 7/5 DDB can be found, 8/5 $1 denom DDB and TDB, 9/5 DDB and TDB, $1 DDB and TDB and now 9/7 TDB can be found in abundance. A fellow player I know discovered the $1 denom 9/7 TDB and notified me that he had found 4 machines with the best pay tables avialable for this game. I knew of a casino that had plenty of 9/7 TDB but had dropped them to 9/6 which sent me back to playing at a much closer location, have been get my tail kicked there. Anyway I went to the casino to check the 4 machines out and they do indeed have 9/7, turns out there are really a total of 10 machines with those pay tables. Thus far my results have been pretty bad but it's still really to early to determine just how much the increased pay tables will make, my guess is I'll still get my tail kicked but it might take a few minutes longer. I would be tempted to take a million dollar bet right now that if I play 100K hands of 9/6 TDB and a 100K hands of 9/7 TDB my losses would still be about the same amount. While I know the math says there should be a considerable difference over the long run as crazy as it may sound I doubt it will make any real difference. Correct me if I'm wrong but according to the numbers on 100K hands of $1 denom 9/6 TDB my losses should average $9,250 per year, on $1 denom 9/7 TDB my losses should average $2,100 per year. If the casino that offers the 9/7 TDB told me that they would allow me to play 100K hands and only charge me $3K per year I'd jump on it in a second.
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FAA
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I know the math says there should be a considerable difference over the
long run as crazy as it may sound I doubt it will make any real
difference. According to the numbers on 100K
hands of $1 denom 9/6 TDB losses should average $9,250 per year, on
$1 denom 9/7 TDB losses should average $2,100 per year.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'm a long way from banging out 100,000 hands. But in the real world you may be correct. We can throw out numbers all day but who actually amasses such hand totals on a recreational basis?
long run as crazy as it may sound I doubt it will make any real
difference. According to the numbers on 100K
hands of $1 denom 9/6 TDB losses should average $9,250 per year, on
$1 denom 9/7 TDB losses should average $2,100 per year.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'm a long way from banging out 100,000 hands. But in the real world you may be correct. We can throw out numbers all day but who actually amasses such hand totals on a recreational basis?
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FloridaPhil
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Odds are calculated into infinity. Few players live that long. Better odds are better because they allow you to play longer with the same bankroll. Unfortunately, they do not guarantee your results will be any better.
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alpax
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There is a big difference in optimal strategy between 9/6 and 9/7 TDB, where most of the time 3 to a flush with a high card is always held over two unsuited high card.
The variance is very high 100 for 9/6 and 98 for 9/7, so 100K is not really enough to get a gauge on the average. It is entirely possible to lose more than $20,000 a year on both games.
Hopefully you are in great financial shape to be able to play $1 TDB. Mr. Dancer has given you the best advice a couple of weeks ago.
The variance is very high 100 for 9/6 and 98 for 9/7, so 100K is not really enough to get a gauge on the average. It is entirely possible to lose more than $20,000 a year on both games.
Hopefully you are in great financial shape to be able to play $1 TDB. Mr. Dancer has given you the best advice a couple of weeks ago.
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spxChrome
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King like always you are so right. We are pretty much the same type of player and I have the same results. Since May 05 of this year I have had only 6 hand pays. I want you to know 5 of those have been made hands. The other hand pay came on a 10x quad kings which a rarely play but found a single line ultimate X machine and thought I would try it.
This is roughly around 160,000+ hands I have played. Not only are the hand pays not coming I can count the 800 on maybe 2 hands and most of those where dealt.
I want to show you a small sample of my quad counts since I keep very good books. Now this will look like mumbo jumbo but here is how it breaks down.
A,K,Q,J,10 and so on for single quads
SA,S2,S3....Quads with kickers I use an "S" cause we call them Special Access, or special 2's what you call AWAK, so anything with an S is with a kicker.
SF,SFD,SDH...Straight Flushes are SF + suite so SFD is Straight Flush Diamonds, RF is Royal Flush
D10,D4....Anything with D in front of it is Dealt so D10 is dealt quad 10s
K,10,8,J,D4,8,J,6,7,k,6,J,7,10,5,10
K,J,Q,9,8,6,7,8,8
8,8,K,J,9,8
6,8,8,10,K,J,D2,3
K,8,9,3,4,SFH,D10,10,J,8,6
8,7,J,2,J,Q,9,8,DS4,4,8,8,9
8,J,10,J,9,5,J
K,K,9,6,6,7,J,DSA,10,SFD
DS2,8,4,9,7,J,Q,8,6,8,5,Q
5,5,8,4,S3,J,J,Q,D2,9,8,6,6,9,5
This is my last 10 trips check out the Q8 count =21! Check out the QA count =1 and it was dealt.
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Now compare this to say a sample size from 3 years ago and I'm just going to pick a random spot to copy.
Q,8,Q,5,8,5,J,8,9,A,5,4,SA,2,A,Q,3,7,S2,7,S3,3,RFH,5,7,J,9,9,6,4-
5,SA,8,10,K,5,J,8,7,A,9,7,8,K,9,7,3,A,K,DA,8,5,5,7,6,5,K,Q,3,8,8,Q,J,S4,S3,K,A,2-
J,A,J,D8,8,9,7,3,4,4,Q,D10,9,DS2,6-
6,A,8,Q,8,10,9,Q,DJ,K,5,6,10,S2,D2-
6,S4,9,2,10,J,6,4,Q,8,10,Q,Q,8,A-
8,5,SA,10,Q,Q,7,4,S2,K,4,Q,S4,9-
2,8,9,K,K,4,D9,SFC,4,S2,J,Q,J,3-
7,Q,10,10,8,2,10,10,4,A,SFD,D4-
Again Q8 count 18 but the QA count = 11
This is 95% 9/6 DDB and 9/7 TDB at the $1 level with a little $2 mixed in.
Like you I am willing to bet anyone anywhere they can no longer have a positive return, I don't care what time frame you choose 1 session, 1 month, 5 years. I don't see it possible anymore to even match the results of a $5 slot machine. Maybe it started on the east coast and hasn't made it to LV yet but I can promise whatever has changed is in full effect from Tuncia to Biloxi and everywhere in between.
This is roughly around 160,000+ hands I have played. Not only are the hand pays not coming I can count the 800 on maybe 2 hands and most of those where dealt.
I want to show you a small sample of my quad counts since I keep very good books. Now this will look like mumbo jumbo but here is how it breaks down.
A,K,Q,J,10 and so on for single quads
SA,S2,S3....Quads with kickers I use an "S" cause we call them Special Access, or special 2's what you call AWAK, so anything with an S is with a kicker.
SF,SFD,SDH...Straight Flushes are SF + suite so SFD is Straight Flush Diamonds, RF is Royal Flush
D10,D4....Anything with D in front of it is Dealt so D10 is dealt quad 10s
K,10,8,J,D4,8,J,6,7,k,6,J,7,10,5,10
K,J,Q,9,8,6,7,8,8
8,8,K,J,9,8
6,8,8,10,K,J,D2,3
K,8,9,3,4,SFH,D10,10,J,8,6
8,7,J,2,J,Q,9,8,DS4,4,8,8,9
8,J,10,J,9,5,J
K,K,9,6,6,7,J,DSA,10,SFD
DS2,8,4,9,7,J,Q,8,6,8,5,Q
5,5,8,4,S3,J,J,Q,D2,9,8,6,6,9,5
This is my last 10 trips check out the Q8 count =21! Check out the QA count =1 and it was dealt.
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Now compare this to say a sample size from 3 years ago and I'm just going to pick a random spot to copy.
Q,8,Q,5,8,5,J,8,9,A,5,4,SA,2,A,Q,3,7,S2,7,S3,3,RFH,5,7,J,9,9,6,4-
5,SA,8,10,K,5,J,8,7,A,9,7,8,K,9,7,3,A,K,DA,8,5,5,7,6,5,K,Q,3,8,8,Q,J,S4,S3,K,A,2-
J,A,J,D8,8,9,7,3,4,4,Q,D10,9,DS2,6-
6,A,8,Q,8,10,9,Q,DJ,K,5,6,10,S2,D2-
6,S4,9,2,10,J,6,4,Q,8,10,Q,Q,8,A-
8,5,SA,10,Q,Q,7,4,S2,K,4,Q,S4,9-
2,8,9,K,K,4,D9,SFC,4,S2,J,Q,J,3-
7,Q,10,10,8,2,10,10,4,A,SFD,D4-
Again Q8 count 18 but the QA count = 11
This is 95% 9/6 DDB and 9/7 TDB at the $1 level with a little $2 mixed in.
Like you I am willing to bet anyone anywhere they can no longer have a positive return, I don't care what time frame you choose 1 session, 1 month, 5 years. I don't see it possible anymore to even match the results of a $5 slot machine. Maybe it started on the east coast and hasn't made it to LV yet but I can promise whatever has changed is in full effect from Tuncia to Biloxi and everywhere in between.
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FAA
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A positive return on one short session is not beyond reason. But on those games, any more play is courting disaster.
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wildman49
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I am not sure why anyone wants to play TDB. I have sat down and played this game one nickel at a time more then once. Hardly ever get a paying pair off the deal. I change to JOB and the game is like night and day to TDB. Paying pairs all over the place off the deal on JOB same 52 deck yet don't deal like it on TDB.
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FAA
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SF,SFD,SDH...Straight Flushes are SF + suite so SFD is Straight Flush Diamonds, RF is Royal Flush
D10,D4....Anything with D in front of it is Dealt so D10 is dealt quad 10s-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------These are clever notations for documenting great hands.
D10,D4....Anything with D in front of it is Dealt so D10 is dealt quad 10s-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------These are clever notations for documenting great hands.
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ko king
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There is a big difference in optimal strategy between 9/6 and 9/7 TDB, where most of the time 3 to a flush with a high card is always held over two unsuited high card.
The variance is very high 100 for 9/6 and 98 for 9/7, so 100K is not really enough to get a gauge on the average. It is entirely possible to lose more than $20,000 a year on both games.
Hopefully you are in great financial shape to be able to play $1 TDB. Mr. Dancer has given you the best advice a couple of weeks ago.
Mr. Dancer provided some pretty sound advice, quit. Now what I get from that advice since positive return games are illegal according to state regulations in this area he is bacicly saying noone should play the games, no doubt many have taken his advice in the last 4-5 years while others struggle to find ways just to control losses that seem to be growing or always leaning toward the high end of vaiance. I understand the difference in optimal strategy when it comes to playing 9/6 TDB and 9/7 TDB, I just don't think it will make a difference. When you say it is entirely possible to lose more than $20K year playing 100K hands of $1 9/6 TDB and $1 9/7 TDB because of the high level of variance involved in those games you point out what I have been saying all along. I am of the belief that you, Dancer or anyone else who attempts to play 100K hands of $1 9/6 TDB or $1 9/7 TDB in this area will experience the same exact results as what I have been seeing for the last few years. If you were new to this area and you walked into the casino and decided that you were going to spend the year playing $1 9/6 TDB with hopes of ending up on the low end or good end of the variance scale, I would have enough confidence to tell you you're going to end up on the high end or bad end on the scale of vaiance. That's been my point all along, I've played these same games in this area for around 20 years with the same exact pay tables. For 15-16 years I almost always ended up better than the low end or good end on the scale of variance or right at or just above the low end of variance. I had a year or two mixed in that it didn't go quite as well maybe I finished the year around 97.6% actual payback percentage and ended up losing around $12K. Nowdays (last few years) the losses are to consistant and predictable. I don't have the actual numbers in front of me now but I never broke the 96% return level for three years running and that was for around 100K played each year. I'm on track this year to repeat the same results.
The variance is very high 100 for 9/6 and 98 for 9/7, so 100K is not really enough to get a gauge on the average. It is entirely possible to lose more than $20,000 a year on both games.
Hopefully you are in great financial shape to be able to play $1 TDB. Mr. Dancer has given you the best advice a couple of weeks ago.
Mr. Dancer provided some pretty sound advice, quit. Now what I get from that advice since positive return games are illegal according to state regulations in this area he is bacicly saying noone should play the games, no doubt many have taken his advice in the last 4-5 years while others struggle to find ways just to control losses that seem to be growing or always leaning toward the high end of vaiance. I understand the difference in optimal strategy when it comes to playing 9/6 TDB and 9/7 TDB, I just don't think it will make a difference. When you say it is entirely possible to lose more than $20K year playing 100K hands of $1 9/6 TDB and $1 9/7 TDB because of the high level of variance involved in those games you point out what I have been saying all along. I am of the belief that you, Dancer or anyone else who attempts to play 100K hands of $1 9/6 TDB or $1 9/7 TDB in this area will experience the same exact results as what I have been seeing for the last few years. If you were new to this area and you walked into the casino and decided that you were going to spend the year playing $1 9/6 TDB with hopes of ending up on the low end or good end of the variance scale, I would have enough confidence to tell you you're going to end up on the high end or bad end on the scale of vaiance. That's been my point all along, I've played these same games in this area for around 20 years with the same exact pay tables. For 15-16 years I almost always ended up better than the low end or good end on the scale of variance or right at or just above the low end of variance. I had a year or two mixed in that it didn't go quite as well maybe I finished the year around 97.6% actual payback percentage and ended up losing around $12K. Nowdays (last few years) the losses are to consistant and predictable. I don't have the actual numbers in front of me now but I never broke the 96% return level for three years running and that was for around 100K played each year. I'm on track this year to repeat the same results.
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DaBurglar
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excellent posts, Ko king and Spxchrome!!!! I applaud your conclusions and especially SPX's detailed record keeping (thanks for showing everyone what I myself have been saying I USED to do to an even more retentive extent than you! it is possible to do this if one so chooses and knows what to do with the data one accumulates!)As I have been saying over and over and over, and as a certain "clique" simply opposes without any real rational backing......the games and the way they are administered by most casinos (maybe ALL) in AC, have been changed and "modified" so that is truly is IMPOSSIBLE to simply show a straight profit EVEN if the paytable is 100% (or as close as is possible these days)......And this should be obvious, and no longer a mystery or surprise, to anyone....the casino BUSINESS (its not an "industry", sorry) is no longer the sure fire profit conjuring guaranteed moneymaker it used to seem to be......sure, there are still SOME casinos that do well, but not nearly as well as they once did, and not nearly as many. Hence, they have to literally "HANG ON" to every dollar they can, and that means doing the things we see and perceive to our erstwhile "straight forward" video poker games.I respect what Bob dancer does and represents, but I "know" that, other than the "insider tricks and secrets" he claims he knows, there is no way he (or anyone else) can support themselves by simply playing as advantageously as possible (like many USED to do.)
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