Three basic mistakes people make at casinos?

[alpax]

I saw something this morning that caught my attention from the vpfree message board, Mickey Crimm (who made an appearance here last month) brought up a link discussing common mistakes people make at the casino.

It comes from an interview with Adam Kucharski who wrote the book The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math are taking the Luck Out of Gambling. This person was on Dancer/Munchkin's GWAE radio show a month ago. As the title states, this person believes luck gets overwhelmed by the math.

Three basic mistakes people make at casinos, according to a math expert

[QUOTE]

What have you learned about the mistakes that people often make when trying to predict the outcome of games? For example, in the section in the book on horse racing, you mention that people often gamble too much on underdogs. Are there other common errors?

There’s a number of biases we fall into. One is the “favorite-long-shot bias.” In horse racing, if you look at the horses that are in the back of the pack, they have higher odds than their performance suggests they should. In other words, people overestimate the chance of long shots winning. That feature also pops up in other sports, and even in how we predict weather or severe political events. People tend to focus on things that are surprising and overestimate the chances of unlikely events.

Another is known as the Monte Carlo fallacy. This originated in roulette, where when the same color comes up multiple times, people tend to start piling money on the other color. They think that if black has come up a lot, then red must be due. Of course, it isn’t, because the result is still completely random, but there’s this psychological bias dragging us one way.

A third psychological quirk which pops up a lot in games is what’s known as gambler’s ruin. This is the tendency where if people win at a game, they increase the amount of money they’re risking. But often when people lose, they don’t decrease the amount that they’re risking. Mathematically, this will always lead you to bankruptcy. This is why bankroll management is incredibly important, because you need to resist this temptation and adjust the amount you’re risking depending on where you are in the game.

[/QUOTE]

[case]

Yes that one about roulette is so true. If black came ten times in a row it must be time for red. When I see the same color come up a lot, I like to go over to the table and watch all the bets on the opposite color. Then if the other color comes up they high five and say "see, I told you red was due"!

[alpax]

I definitely stopped sports betting since I found myself wanting to bet on the underdogs since the payouts are positive rather than the -110 money line on the favorite (meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100) and they have to win by a point spread margin. A good handicapping system is the only way to go, I do not know how Shackleford comes up with the Super Bowl ones.

I try hard to think that all gambling events (with the exception of baccarat and blackjack since a shoe is used) are independent events. The thoughts of streaks do creep in of what are the odds of a certain number set that keeps coming out. Something that happens 1/2 odds, a streak of 10 straight outcomes is 1 in 1024, I would think like 1 in a 1000 wont happen much. The problem is that the house has the budget to see through the long run, most players cannot.

About adjusting bets, there is not much flexibility to do that in video poker without risking a change in pay schedules or even machines. Not many people bet less when their losing because when they hit, it will not accumulate back what they've lost.

These flaws are the reason I have to limit myself to playing video poker these days and not the tables.

[Come Back Kid]

While playing keno, I tend to raise my bet when it seems like my numbers are coming in...It has paid off sometimes...But the key is to lower it back when they're not hitting anymore. Sometimes that is hard to do.

[edog743]

The biggest mistake people make is that they actually go to the casino.

[FloridaPhil]

The secret to surviving in a casino is to realize you are there for recreation and you will pay for the experience.  If you make money, enjoy the moment.  Attempting to use math or someone else's reported results to justify a continued attempt to beat a billion dollar industry is counter productive and often leads to bigger loses.  Video Poker is not an investment opportunity.  It's a video game that happens to have money involved with it.  If you want to believe you can make money playing the game... fine.   Just don't complain when it doesn't work out the way you expected.

[Come Back Kid]

LOL...You're sooo right Edog!!!

[FAA]

If you want to believe you can make money playing the game, fine.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The only way is pure discipline. Resolve to cease operations at a predetermined profit point. More often that not you will achieve this number. Put all cash in lock box. Enjoy city.

[Chicagoan]

Casino investor overheard at a boardroom meeting:
"I invest in casinos because I want people to win and go home happy! Making people happy is my life's ambition."

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Chicagoan]Casino investor overheard at a boardroom meeting: 
"I invest in casinos because I want people to win and go home happy! Making people happy is my life's ambition."[/quote]Going to a casino is suppose to make you happy not sad.  If you go there thinking you are going to beat the games, you will be sad the majority of the time.  I have never seen one scap of real proof that anyone wins playing video poker long term.  Lots of talk about comps and raffles with nothing to back it up.So why not consider video poker as entertainment?   If you play the right games with the right strategy, it can be a cheap hobby with many benefits.  What other recreational activity gives you a chance to win your entry fee back?