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If you have a few minutes, You may want to watch this two videos.
All in All very good information for people like us that like to gamble in casinos.
There are six videos in this series, If you want to watch them all just look for them on the right side of the screen when watching any of the video links below.
The reason I just posted the last two is because they seem to be the meat and potatoes of the six videos...
The Gambler's Fallacy video #5
The Gambler's Fallacy video #6
The Gambler's Fallacy...
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PokerParadise
- Forum Rookie
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:36 pm
Great videos...thanks!
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Raner
- Senior Member
- Posts: 131
- Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:02 am
... I ran across them the other day. I watched all six of them. I liked the way the subject matter was simply explained. So I figured some of you all may pickup a tidbit of info here and there...
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FAA
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 9140
- Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am
Bottom Line- House Always Wins
This reminded me of a fellow craps player who kept urging me to take the "free" odds. Most likely, you dig your own grave. I only play one roll each trip nowadays. I write a trip report thread partly to guard against "biased memories." This is a rather elegant term for a very popular area of discussion.
This reminded me of a fellow craps player who kept urging me to take the "free" odds. Most likely, you dig your own grave. I only play one roll each trip nowadays. I write a trip report thread partly to guard against "biased memories." This is a rather elegant term for a very popular area of discussion.
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Raner
- Senior Member
- Posts: 131
- Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:02 am
Bottom Line- House Always Wins
I watch all six videos. The main thing that got me to thinking was, The casino has an infinite amount of money and the player's back roll is minuscule in comparison.
Every game in the casino has a house edge except the change machine and sometimes I wonder about that.
Let's take video poker. All the information you find, Payback,EV,ER,Strategy, and so on are based on long term play. The kicker is, If you were to ever get to whatever long term play is, You are going to lose for sure.
Yet, almost everything written about video poker always ends with this two phases (On the long term) or (But anything can happen on the short term).
The thing that I have a hard time getting my arm's around is this.
The strategy for video poker is based on math to make the best picks for any hand dealt. But the RNG is completely random. So basically the math is correct as far as the picks go but in order to draw the right cards to make a winning hand your at the mercy of stopping the RNG at the correct code for that to happen. (So in the end it boils down to the timing when your finger hits the draw button to stop the RNG in a code that fills in what ever card or cards you need to complete your winning hand)...
I watch all six videos. The main thing that got me to thinking was, The casino has an infinite amount of money and the player's back roll is minuscule in comparison.
Every game in the casino has a house edge except the change machine and sometimes I wonder about that.
Let's take video poker. All the information you find, Payback,EV,ER,Strategy, and so on are based on long term play. The kicker is, If you were to ever get to whatever long term play is, You are going to lose for sure.
Yet, almost everything written about video poker always ends with this two phases (On the long term) or (But anything can happen on the short term).
The thing that I have a hard time getting my arm's around is this.
The strategy for video poker is based on math to make the best picks for any hand dealt. But the RNG is completely random. So basically the math is correct as far as the picks go but in order to draw the right cards to make a winning hand your at the mercy of stopping the RNG at the correct code for that to happen. (So in the end it boils down to the timing when your finger hits the draw button to stop the RNG in a code that fills in what ever card or cards you need to complete your winning hand)...
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onemoretry
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3020
- Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:00 pm
The strategy for video poker is based on math to make the best picks for any hand dealt. But the RNG is completely random.
I believe that "the math" accounts for the probability of all the possible results in order to identify the " best" play, i. e., the one that, taking into account the payout and the probability of hitting the hand producing the payout, has the highest value.
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Raner
- Senior Member
- Posts: 131
- Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:02 am
[QUOTE] I believe that "the math" accounts for the probability of all the possible results in order to identify the " best" play, i. e., the one that, taking into account the payout and the probability of hitting the hand producing the payout, has the highest value.[/QUOTE]
Yes I totally agree... But as I understand it, In the latest model VP machines (The Class III machines in the casinos presently) the RNG never stops going threw thousands of codes a second till you stop it, in this case with the draw button.
Lets try an example...
So let's say your playing DDB...
You hit the deal button the RNG stops on a code that deals you this hand...
Your dealt...
Ah, As, T, 2s, 2d... In this hand the proper hold is the Ah, As,.
Then you hit the draw button the RNG stops on a code that gives you this cards...
Your draw code cards are...
Ad, Ac, 2h, 2c, Ks... So your hand will like this...
Ah, As, Ad, Ac, 2h... You just hit a home run...
But if the draw code cards are...
2h, 2c, Ad, Ac, Ks... Then your hand will look like this...
Ah, As, 2h, 2c, Ad... You just made the full house...
You could have made quads 2's with kicker but in this particular hand the strategy would not let you...
Nothing wrong with the math on the strategy just that the RNG stopped on a code that makes you feel
real bad, that's all...
As you can see the cards are dealt according to the order they are in the code sequence...
So as I said before your at the mercy of the code the RNG stops on...
You can feel like this or like this
Yes I totally agree... But as I understand it, In the latest model VP machines (The Class III machines in the casinos presently) the RNG never stops going threw thousands of codes a second till you stop it, in this case with the draw button.
Lets try an example...
So let's say your playing DDB...
You hit the deal button the RNG stops on a code that deals you this hand...
Your dealt...
Ah, As, T, 2s, 2d... In this hand the proper hold is the Ah, As,.
Then you hit the draw button the RNG stops on a code that gives you this cards...
Your draw code cards are...
Ad, Ac, 2h, 2c, Ks... So your hand will like this...
Ah, As, Ad, Ac, 2h... You just hit a home run...
But if the draw code cards are...
2h, 2c, Ad, Ac, Ks... Then your hand will look like this...
Ah, As, 2h, 2c, Ad... You just made the full house...
You could have made quads 2's with kicker but in this particular hand the strategy would not let you...
Nothing wrong with the math on the strategy just that the RNG stopped on a code that makes you feel
real bad, that's all...
As you can see the cards are dealt according to the order they are in the code sequence...
So as I said before your at the mercy of the code the RNG stops on...
You can feel like this or like this
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billryan
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 4422
- Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:20 pm
I don't believe the video poker math is based on the mythical long run.
It is based on a single Royal Flush cycle. Approximately 40,000 hands, depending on the game you choose.
It is based on a single Royal Flush cycle. Approximately 40,000 hands, depending on the game you choose.
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BobDancer
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1115
- Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:07 am
Post unable to migrate
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Raner
- Senior Member
- Posts: 131
- Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:02 am
I don't believe the video poker math is based on the mythical long run.
It is based on a single Royal Flush cycle. Approximately 40,000 hands, depending on the game you choose.
For a long time I've been curious to find out what operating system a video poker machines uses.
It seems to be a very well guarded secret the manufactures will not divulge.
There is nothing on the net about it. The only way to find out is if a programmer leaks it.
Your believe could be 100% correct but in order to accomplish this the software code has to be seeded
in some way. But all we can do is guess as to exactly what takes place and when...(For now anyway)
Regardless of how the software program functions.It's still the best game in the casino with hardly no casino edge.
(Well on long term play...LOL...I just used the disclaimer you see on most Vp Articles)
It is based on a single Royal Flush cycle. Approximately 40,000 hands, depending on the game you choose.
For a long time I've been curious to find out what operating system a video poker machines uses.
It seems to be a very well guarded secret the manufactures will not divulge.
There is nothing on the net about it. The only way to find out is if a programmer leaks it.
Your believe could be 100% correct but in order to accomplish this the software code has to be seeded
in some way. But all we can do is guess as to exactly what takes place and when...(For now anyway)
Regardless of how the software program functions.It's still the best game in the casino with hardly no casino edge.
(Well on long term play...LOL...I just used the disclaimer you see on most Vp Articles)
