Anthony Curtis on the LV shooter.

[billryan]

The Shooter Gambler
October 8, 2017
32 Comments
Written by Anthony Curtis
During the past week, speculation about Strip shooter Stephen Paddock’s gambling proclivities took front and center in this saga for about two days. I’m in the rolodexes of some of the big media outlets and the calls started coming on Monday. The first TV show to air an interview with me was “CBS This Morning” and after, that the floodgates opened. I did about 25 interviews, including TV for CBS, CNN, and “Inside Edition” and print for the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, New Yorker, New York Magazine, LA Times, and London Daily Mail.
I never knew Stephen Paddock, but I might know more about his gambling profile than just about anyone outside of his closest consorts and casino employees who either hosted him or have access to his records. I’ve heard from several players who knew and played with him. I’ve heard from casino employees who’ve seen his records and results. And eerily, he was a former LVA member and a regular customer of ours. What gets out in interviews is always truncated and since the media has a limited understanding of gambling, the ideas and concepts are often poorly stated. Here’s an accounting of what I know and the conclusions that I’ve come to.
The first mentions of gambling indicated that Paddock was a “$100-per-hand poker player.” That didn’t make sense and I assumed he was a video poker player playing $25 denoms. When I asked around, no one knew the name, but once photos of Paddock became widely circulated, I began hearing from players who knew him by sight and verified that he’d played video poker for high stakes for several years at various Strip casinos. The casinos specified most often were Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand, Wynn, and Cosmopolitan (the image of Paddock on the LVA.com home page was taken by CCTV at Cosmopolitan). Given the $25 video poker tie-in, I checked vpFREE2 (an outstanding resource) and noted that Mandalay Bay’s best game at that level was 8/5 Bonus Poker. I made a mistake in early interviews indicating that the best he could have played there was a 99.17% game betting up to $125 per hand. I later learned (from current players delighting in catching me in an error) that I’d overlooked a $5 Triple Double Spin Poker option, which has a 99.58% return with the possibility of betting up to $225.
The media was hoping to find evidence of a compulsive player who’d lost his money and snapped, but that didn’t jibe with the information that was coming in. Paddock had played for too long at high levels for that to be the case. I was also getting reports that he had an intact “low 7” rating, which means a verified $1 million to $3 million in the bank, and six-figure credit lines. I was told that he was known as a player who could win or lose up to $100K on a trip. He apparently paid his markers when he lost. Accordingly, I discounted the degenerate-loser scenario.
What about the other side of the spectrum? Somewhere it was reported that Paddock had told neighbors that he was a professional gambler. Could he have been a winning player, or at least an advantage player of some type? Absolutely. I felt it was possible that he was a winner, but still unlikely. Based on my original belief that he was playing at a base return of 99.17%, it seemed more likely that he was playing the comp game – losing, but making it up in high-end givebacks. That’s an arrangement that often exists between players and casinos, where the player is satisfied with the value of the comps and the casino is winning more than the cost of those comps. The discovery of the 99.58% game made me pause on that, as the additional .41% is significant. With slot points, bounce-back cash, and VIP tournament equity, he probably could have pushed his overall return above 100%. However, I still feel it’s much more plausible that the comps were the driving factor, and almost all the knowledgeable players I’ve discussed this with concur.
Later, information began to come in about Paddock’s actual results, leaked by employees who’d peeked at his records. They show him sitting on both sides of the ledger, which also supports the fact that he might have been a winning player, since a top-level AP would probably employ methods that suppress wins and inflate losses. However, the negative balances were quite a bit higher than the positives, so again I lean toward a comp-hustling profile. Regardless, winner or comp wizard, it’s AP play and that’s the way I described it to the press. (Directly following this post is an excellent comment on this subject by Captain Jack that was originally made in another post at GWAE.)
Of course, the strangest part of this for me is the LVA connection. I didn’t even think about it at first, but after a couple days, we checked our database and sure enough, Stephen Paddock was a customer. He’d been an LVA member in the early 2000s and at that time was also buying how-to products, almost all for video poker. He bought Bob Dancer’s Video Poker for Winners tutorial software and several Dancer/Daily Video Poker Strategy Cards. He also bought The Video Poker Answer Book by John Growchowski and The Slot Expert’s Guide to Playing Slots by John Robison. He was, without question, a studied player. His most recent purchases were last year, when he bought the Tax Guide for Gamblers by Jean Scott and Marissa Chien and The Law for Gamblers by Bob Nersesian.
So you can see that I had a lot to work from, and based on all of the evidence, I conclude that Stephen Paddock was most likely a good player who played close to breakeven, but was probably losing overall and angling for comps. What’s really crazy about this is that the big-loser scenario could still be true. That’s something we won’t know for sure until his records are released, if they ever are.


      
DFS Week 5: Value Picks plus Sherman Sounds Off


32 Comments



LVAadmin
October 8, 2017    
(This comment originally posted by Captain Jack and brought over from another thread.)
I’m not sure if some of you are saying this guy was not an AP in order to feel better about yourselves…but it is pretty clear at this point that this guy was an AP.
He is us.
When the narrative first broke that his brother claimed he gambled “$100 a hand at poker and sent pictures of jackpots” I started to suspect we were dealing with an AP here. As details emerged about the extensive planning and preparation he went through to pull this off I knew he was an AP. Think about it, this guy got off a few thousand more bullets than any other lone wolf mass shooter has ever before him. He wanted to raise the bar and set the mark for killing by a mass shooter. In fact, I think he probably died thinking he had killed hundreds maybe thousands. Don’t confuse this for being respect or praise for his actions. This guy was pure evil.
The clinical diagnosis that we commonly refer to as being a sociopath is Antisocial Personality Disorder and it occurs in roughly 3.8% of Americans from my research. However, in the world of Advantage Gambling I’d say it is 10-20x more prevalent. There is a natural progression towards sociopathic behavior that comes from making money in a casino environment. You’re making your money by beating inefficiencies in the casino…who in turn is making their revenue from the stupidity of the gambling masses. You begin to get a sense of superiority above your fellow casino patrons. You begin to lose empathy. You employ deception to get what you want. You become immune to taking risks. You become emotionally disconnected from the world around you. All of these are personality traits of sociopathic behavior.
I’m not sure the public is ever going to fully understand what could cause someone to do this. They will be quick to accept the narrative that this guy was a degenerate gambler who lost all his money and decided to extract revenge on Las Vegas. However, gambling addiction leads you to hate inward, not outward. Someone in their 60’s is a candidate for suicide, not mass murder. Hopefully the FBI decides to try to get inside the mind of an AP to understand how this guy could develop the personality disorder to an extreme that it would result in this. When you’re an AP, you’re an AP at every aspect of your life. Maybe seeing what it’s like to be on the extreme edge of this personality spectrum will be enough to help some AP’s take a step back and gain some serious introspection.
He is us….and it’s making me ill.

Taken from The Las Vegas Advisor website.

[DaBurglar]

Can you curb your own anti-social hostility for a moment and accept my gratitude for posting this voluminous post from a different web source?I'm serious, this is one of the more enlightening and interesting pieces of info thus far I have read on this guy and what he did and how it relates to Vegas/Gambling/VP etc.In particular, the exposition by Captain Jack on the topic of Sociopathy and how it relates to gamblers is insightful and until I read his post, I had thought that I was one of only a handful of people who had developed the feelings that many (but not ALL) hardcore casino gamblers tended to also be obnoxious, arrogant, selfish and oblivious to humanity.   Turns out, according to Captain Jack's sources that the common rate of Sociopathy AT LARGE is 3.8%, but is 20% higher among the population of dedicated casino gamblers/Advantage Players.    His detailed explanation as to why this is the case, i.e. HOW a long term casino activity impacts and influences a person's personality and values, is particularly insightful.The fact that Paddock was recording himself during his massacre now, in hindsight and with the previous post's input, SCREAMS the type of detailed analysis and self-absorbed behavior of a Sociopathic Advantage Player-Mass Murderer (as if he planned to review it later to learn what he could do better next time!)     Very disturbing and at the same time important for us to understand.....

[Tedlark]

DaBurglar I again will ask this: If Paddock had carried out this monsterous act of violence in Chicago or Boston, would such scrutiny over the man's gambling habits still be coming into play?

The man had an obvious gripe against society as a whole and for whatever reason - I don't think an entirely clear picture of it will ever be developed.

Mental health professionals can tie any, ANY, obsessive behavior into the mental make-up of any person who has committed such an act as Paddock committed but that DOES NOT mean all who have ANY obsessive behavior disorder or quirk will be apt to commit an act such as Paddock committed.

What is next: weighing in on how the man placed his toilet paper onto the dispenser? I'm sure some Harvard type has done a study of that.....

[ColorMeOld]

What is next: weighing in on how the man placed his toilet paper onto the dispenser? I'm sure some Harvard type has done a study of that.....

Important Study!

[FloridaPhil]

[quote]However, in the world of Advantage Gambling I’d say it is 10-20x more
prevalent. There is a natural progression towards sociopathic behavior
that comes from making money in a casino environment. You’re making your
money by beating inefficiencies in the casino…who in turn is making
their revenue from the stupidity of the gambling masses. You begin to
get a sense of superiority above your fellow casino patrons. You begin
to lose empathy. You employ deception to get what you want. You become
immune to taking risks. You become emotionally disconnected from the
world around you. All of these are personality traits of sociopathic
behavior.[/quote]...

[Tedlark]

Most anyone in sales or advertising may have those same traits: a sense of superiority; loss of empathy; employing deception to get what you want; becoming immune to taking risks; you become emotionally disconnected from the world around you.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Tedlark]Most anyone in sales or advertising may have those same traits: a sense
of superiority; loss of empathy; employing deception to get what you
want; becoming immune to taking risks; you become emotionally
disconnected from the world around you.[/quote]That's crazy talk.  I've been in sales all my life.  I love sales because you are helping people solve problems, not deceiving them.   Any salesperson that had those attributes would fall on his face because his customers would never return.  A salesman that only sells someone once is not a salesman, he's a huckster.  

[DaBurglar]

[quote=Tedlark]Most anyone in sales or advertising may have those same traits: a sense
of superiority; loss of empathy; employing deception to get what you
want; becoming immune to taking risks; you become emotionally
disconnected from the world around you.That's crazy talk.  I've been in sales all my life.  I love sales because you are helping people solve problems, not deceiving them.   Any salesperson that had those attributes would fall on his face because his customers would never return.  A salesman that only sells someone once is not a salesman, he's a huckster.  


[/QUOTE]Phil, 100% agree with this and your statement about the inherent, TRUE nature of Sales, and I have NO IDEA what the real basis or source actually IS of Ted's conclusion on the similarity between "Sales/Advertising (and by extension.....marketing)"  and  the awful, sociopathic nature and actions of PAddock!When I was the Marketing Executive from 1992 thru 2005, I was essentially responsible for overseeing the Sales Force in terms of having the proper and effective tools to acquire and maintain customers in a wide array of different industries and market segments.   This called for having a sales and marketing philosophy that centered on HONESTY, INTEGRITY and COMPETENCY because, as you aptly put it, we  were PROBLEM SOLVERS.   While the vehicle (or industry/market ) description for my company's business (i.e. what we sold) was "Custom Packaging and all ancillary products",  the truth was we sold a SERVICE.....pure and simple.   For each customer this service may have taken on different looks and composition, and may have involved different products and processes, at the end of the line, when our invoices were paid the customers, they were paying for a service, which often involved solving a custom packaging problem (quite often companies who make or distribute consumer products do not give high enough priority, money or emphasis on WHAT they will put/store/display their product in as it transacts in the marketplace; that is where I and my company came in!)   And without Honesty, Integrity and most of all, EMPATHY (for the customer's business needs and situation), the business & company I worked for would NEVER have succeeded or survived.By the way that last quality, EMPATHY, is perhaps the most VITAL for a successful sales or marketing executive, and it is precisely what a sociopath LACKS or fails to manifest in their life!  Obviously, Paddock totally lacked any shred of empathy for people in general.....you do not kill/wound/maim 600+ people you never met who have done nothing to you, from 400+ yards out, if you are full of empathy for your fellow human beings.

[billryan]

Why am I reminded of an old quote by Reggie Jackson about Billy Martin and George Stienbrenner.
Anyone remember it?

[Chicagoan]

Many moons ago I knew a crackerjack prosecutor with an amazing W-L record. He once explained something to me about motive. Motive is the basis for solving a murder, he said, because once you know the precise motive you almost always know who your #1 suspect is.
But, he added, this rule of thumb is completely thrown out the window when you are dealing with a crime committed by a sicko, because there is no logic involved in the suspect's formation of a reason for committing the crime.
Same thing applies to Paddock. That the guy is a sicko, a warped mind, is proven by his act. So why is law enforcement wasting time and resources trying to discover his motive? It was an act that evolved from a sick, warped mind that is now deceased --- we will probably never know why he did what he did.