Question of the day....

[DaBurglar]

We all know the probabilities and frequency of getting specific hands over time in random deals from a typical video poker game using a 52 card deck....in other words, we know the average frequency of four of a kind is once every 440 hands or so, give or take....a royal is about once every 45,000 hands, getting 2s 3s or 4s with a kicker is once every 6900 hands, etc etc and so on...

So let me ask all of you, how bad or how skewed would the frequency of all expected big hands have to become before you would honestly, seriously start to question the integrity of the games themselves you are playing? That is to say, would it take the frequency to become twice as long ( i.e a royal 1:80,000? 2-3-4s with a kicker 1:14,000?). Three times as long? Five? What?


Let's just see what everyones threshold is before they start questioning things and then we'll go from there....

[Tedlark]

DaBurglar just because a royal is expected to hit every 40,000 hands or so, that doesn't make it so. What about when a person hits multiple royals well before that 40,000 number rolls around again? Does this also mean that we should question the integrity of the game?

[FloridaPhil]

No variance in frequency would get me to believe the games were rigged.   I have seen 4 royals in a day and have gone years between them.   Recently someone posted they hadn't had a single line royal in ten years.   If the games are fair and legal, the results should be random.  This means any and all outcomes can occur.  Thinking math can predict what will happen "to you" is wishful thinking.   The casino makes money because of the sheer number of players that play, hours that are played and human errors.  Throw in negative odds and human frailties you have a profitable enterprise.

[DaBurglar]

Obviously I wasn't explicit enough....I'm not talking about a one off incident or even two or three in a row, where it took 90,000 or 100,000 hands between each of the last three royals, etc. I'm speaking of a fairly extended average, say a period of 9-12 months, something digestable for our frail minds but still long enough to mean something....say during a 12 month period, the average length between royals came out to something far longer than the expected average....what would that number be for you to start to question things?


What made me think of this was seeing a progressive ddb game where both the aces and the 2,3,4s with kickers Both were well over four times beyond (or far more as was the case for the small cards) the expected occurrence (you can figure this out simply knowing how many hands move the meter then calculating based on what the meter said)...it was just odd seeing both AWAK & 2s-4swak both at the same time as very far out there ... Over 59000 hands since the 2-4swak had hit and over 62000 hands since the AWAK had hit....the small cards should hit 1:6900 or so, so you can see it was long overdue.

Now if you saw that consistently over a twelve months period you certainly would at least pause....

[FloridaPhil]

If I saw this on one machine, I don't think it would faze me.  If I saw a pattern of this on multiple machines over a year or more, I might play somewhere else.  Still, it is in the realm of possibility.   Over the years I have noticed an interesting phenomenon with players.  I've had people tell me they never win at a certain casino and that the games are rigged when I've done well there.  Conversely, I've gone to casinos that other people said had "the loosest games in town" and couldn't do a thing.   Players tend to think their results are indicative of all the games in that casino for everyone.  If they're winning, their strategy works and no one can tell them differently.   When they're losing, you don't hear from them.  If you really want to know how much it costs you to play, ask your casino for a print out at the end of the year.  I can tell you from experience that no one really wants to see that information. 

[pokerpokerpoker]

Months on end would certainly give me pause, unless for some reason a LOT of people were playing short coin on this bank.

[billryan]

If I saw this on one machine, I don't think it would faze me.  If I saw a pattern of this on multiple machines over a year or more, I might play somewhere else.  Still, it is in the realm of possibility.   Over the years I have noticed an interesting phenomenon with players.  I've had people tell me they never win at a certain casino and that the games are rigged when I've done well there.  Conversely, I've gone to casinos that other people said had "the loosest games in town" and couldn't do a thing.   Players tend to think their results are indicative of all the games in that casino for everyone.  If they're winning, their strategy works and no one can tell them differently.   When they're losing, you don't hear from them.  If you really want to know how much it costs you to play, ask your casino for a print out at the end of the year.  I can tell you from experience that no one really wants to see that information. 




Most APs routinely ask for printouts for tax purposes.
Another example of phils foolish beliefs.

[OTABILL]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]


If I saw this on one machine, I don't think it would faze me.  If I saw a pattern of this on multiple machines over a year or more, I might play somewhere else.  Still, it is in the realm of possibility.   Over the years I have noticed an interesting phenomenon with players.  I've had people tell me they never win at a certain casino and that the games are rigged when I've done well there.  Conversely, I've gone to casinos that other people said had "the loosest games in town" and couldn't do a thing.   Players tend to think their results are indicative of all the games in that casino for everyone.  If they're winning, their strategy works and no one can tell them differently.   When they're losing, you don't hear from them.  If you really want to know how much it costs you to play, ask your casino for a print out at the end of the year.  I can tell you from experience that no one really wants to see that information. 




Most APs routinely ask for printouts for tax purposes.
Another example of phils foolish beliefs. [/QUOTE]

I'm sure most pros and high stakes VP players would need a printout for tax purposes. However for those of us who play $0.25 single line or other low denomination VP, the only specific reason for a printout would be to show losses to offset a WG2.     

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=bikllryan]Most APs routinely ask for printouts for tax purposes.
Another example of phils foolish beliefs.[/quote]Have you ever personally seen an AP's printout?   How about 20 years worth of VP play showing a million dollar positive cash flow?  I seriously doubt the IRS has either. Most players would be shocked if they saw in writing exactly how much playing VP is costing them.  Try it sometime.  Better have a few drinks first.

[onemoretry]

  If you really want to know how much it costs you to play, ask your casino for a print out at the end of the year.  I can tell you from experience that no one really wants to see that information. 
I know pretty much exactly how much it costs, or doesn't cost, me to play. I record the results of every session once it is completed. That is why I can produce an annual report like I did for 2016, and plan to do again for 2017.

I am quite confident that my records are accurate. I sometimes request a casino win loss statement for confirmation of what I have recorded, and am often surprised at how inaccurate the casino's version is.