Dream Card Poker Insight for DDB and TDB Players

[alpax]

Dream Card Poker has a track record of being one of the most popular specialty video poker game ever in the casinos and on this website. Most notably it is played by Tedlark, a member who achieved earning 3 million club points on videopoker.com



For those who are oblivious to what Dream Card Poker is, here is a description from this website though I do not think they provide the best descriptions for their games in general.

[QUOTE] This game is enhanced with the newest buy-a-pay feature to hit poker: The Dream Card. A maximum bet increases the chances of winning a Dream Card. If the extra wager is placed and the feature awards it, optimal autohold strategy is employed to pick the perfect card to complete the dealt hand. Players are given the card yielding the highest expected return. In other words, players can count on a 4-of-a-kind in place of a 3-of-a-kind on the deal! [/QUOTE]

This is a 10 coin per line game that provides a slight extra return than its base game, and the standard hold strategy is employed on this game as well which makes it easier for players to adapt.

The Motive Behind The Insight

It happened during the most recent December 14th 2017 episode of Gambling With An Edge co-hosted by Mr. Munchkin and Mr. Dancer where the featured guest was “The Wizard of Odds” (Mr. Shackleford), a vpFREE Video Poker Hall of Fame Inductee to boot as well. One of the segments of the episodes talked about Dream Card. Earlier this year, Mr. Shackleford made an interesting observation that the Dream Card frequency shown on the Help pages on this website and at the casinos were incorrect and that the stated value is lower than the actual percentages. Mr. Shackleford brought it up with the appropriate channels at IGT/Action Gaming during a Super Bowl party, and it was concluded that it was a valid point. The general public had to be aware and there may be legal repercussions for presenting misinformation, but the legal team believed that guaranteeing a smaller than the actual percentage will be ok because it at least meets the promise prior to the player playing.

The podcast in MP3 audio format can be found HERE Although I recommend the entire episode personally, the subject in question can be tuned in between the 22:44 and 28:12 mark of the segment.

The 2017 Global Gaming Exposition also showcased a new video poker theme featuring Dream Card. Since it will make an exciting comeback later this year, this will be another motive to explore Dream Card for me.

The Dream Card DDB Return Controversy

When opening the Help pages on videopoker.com for all pay schedules for the DDB variant of Dream Card Poker, they all state 30%.



Mr. Shackleford has a contact with the lead mathematician at VideoPoker.com to obtain the true percentages of the Dream Card feature for all the video poker game variants. It all states 31% for DDB.



This is on top of the many stories on this forum as well as other online forums where the correct Dream Card is not automatically selected. A page on the Wizard of Odds website describes this.

WizardOfOdds.com – Dream Card Controversy

There will be TWO main objectives for this Insight

(1)     Analyzing the effect of the DreamCard feature
(2)     Finding the true frequency of the DreamCard feature

Objective #1 – Analyzing the effect of the Dream Card feature

Note: On the WizardOfOdds website, the webmaster JB has provided extensive detail on just 9/6 Jacks or Better for the Dream Card feature. In this age of video poker, it is highly doubtful any place will offer that variant any more so it may not be worth much. This report is directed towards the DDB players, which is most members on this site including Mr. Fields the Vice President.

A general view of Dream Card is that 4 cards out of a 52 card deck will be dealt first, the Bonus feature when triggered will go through the remaining 48 cards to pick out the best card for the 5th card.

Thus there will be a total of

52 choose 4 = 270725 Possibilities

As mentioned earlier, the Dream Card when triggered may not always automatically select the best remaining card to yield the highest EV possible. Thankfully, the player is given an option to change out the Dream Card to one that they wish.

Assuming the most optimal Dream Card appears on every Bonus Opportunities AND the player makes the highest expected return hold, here are the returns for the Dream Card feature.



Though a downgrade of the Flush or Full House typically costs the player nearly 1.1% of the overall return, for the Bonus feature the cost drop is much less.

8/5 DDB



9/5 DDB




9/6 DDB



As you can see, the Dream Card bonus will yield an average payout of at least 20.69 Credits with respect to a 5 Credit wager payout. This Bonus feature does payout at least 413% as it really helps the player form big hands more often.

Objective #2 - Finding the true frequency of the Dream Card feature

Figuring the Actual Dream Card Percentage,

Let X = Percentage of the Dream Card Bonus

5-Coin Standard Game Value * (1 – X) + 5-Coin Dream Card Game Value * X = 10 Coin Game Value

5 Coin Standard Game Value for Standard DDB
9/6 DDB: 98.9808% * 5 = 4.94904
9/5 DDB: 97.8729% * 5 = 4.893645
8/5 DDB: 96.7861% * 5 = 4.839305

Theoretical Game Return Values posted on VideoPoker.com



Because this game is 10 coins per line to play, the game value is multiplied by 10 and the return.

8/5 DDB

4.839305*(1 – X) + 20.68521728*X = 9.7520

9/5 DDB

4.893645*(1 – X) + 20.85129562*X = 9.8410

9/6 DDB

4.94904*(1 – X) + 20.93310601*X = 9.9040

By figuring for X, we get a value of 0.31 (or 31%) for all the game pay schedules which is indeed matches the source where the Wizard obtained the percentages from the lead mathematician.

Despite this possible issue, Dream Card Poker is enjoyed every day by members of this site. I hope this report has given you an additional insight of the game you did not know about before today. Good luck out there!

Special Extension for Triple Double Bonus

5 Coin Standard Game Value for Standard Triple Double Bonus
9/6 TDB: 98.1540% * 5 = 4.9077
8/6 TDB: 97.1088% * 5 = 4.85544

Dream Card effect returns for Triple Double Bonus

8/6 TDB



9/6 TDB




The DreamCard pays 23.163 (8/6) and 23.309 (9/6) Credits with respect to a 5 Coin payout, this represents a return of 463.25% and 466.18% respectively.

Verifying the WoO reported DreamCard trigger rate of 26.7%





8/6 TDB

4.893645*(1 – X) + 20.85129562*X = 9. 7434

4.893645*(1-.267) + 20.85129562*(.267) = 9. 7434

3.587041785 + 5.56729593054 ~= 9.7434

9/6 TDB

4.9077*(1 – X) + 23.30889353*X = 9.8210
4.9077*(1 – .267) + 23.30889353*(.267) = 9.8210
3.5973441 + 6.22347457251 ~= 9.8210

The true percentage is indeed higher at 26.7% than it is at 26%.

Heads up with regards to incorrect payouts on videopoker.com

The 8/6 TDB will pay out 25 credits for a Flush instead of 30 credits it supposed to payout



DreamCard Impact on W2G payouts

9/5 DDB 1 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 622.746897126968
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 2826.31529525692
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 11062.3930073704

9/5 DDB 3 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 157.061071867645
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 582.075949844605
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 1510.31688125346
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 8703.76572241252
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 41690.3792132732

9/5 DDB 5 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 117.278217065192
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 216.089662354193
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 811.74044539504
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 4362.8623366165
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 41347.3260689878

9/5 DDB 10 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 53.5842920068046
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 152.216476180422
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 240.183675187266
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 1120.90993040644
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 7873.72953165554
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 41730.175517853

9/6 DDB 1 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 620.922329844086
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 2789.1454851558
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 10511.6046615507

9/6 DDB 3 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 156.712968771598
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 577.326697896405
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 1478.61273397297
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 8702.78931687986
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 41690.3723247949

9/6 DDB 5 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 116.955211715313
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 214.996355751805
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 796.456780837326
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 4362.04562087023
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 41347.2584072718

9/6 DDB 10 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 53.4047522859863
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 151.136167054704
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 237.492839801208
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 1120.66105853476
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 7873.70019012204
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 41730.1755178519

9/6 TDB 1 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 665.858776325727
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 938.2204339138
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 2749.11416933433

9/6 TDB 3 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 171.449244472907
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 348.390641855264
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 693.283646305559
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 2910.1314892639
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 13305.6735108403

9/6 TDB 5 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 127.113358911095
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 161.533874688508
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 473.135461703298
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 1725.45732682059
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 11140.4113219188

9/6 TDB 10 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 67.8324072355717
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 105.807078328255
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 171.42007166855
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 929.947047944111
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 2566.92955518114
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 11706.7330693945

8/6 TDB 1 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 665.855158844039
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 938.207840273708
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 2749.00547333163

8/6 TDB 3 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 171.448528100297
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 348.385444770064
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 693.262956264216
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 2910.13064739411
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 13305.6735051619
8/6 TDB 5 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 127.308577293216
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 161.53201702137
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 473.119438758802
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 1725.45634156743
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 11140.4112821651

8/6 TDB 10 Line

The Average Odds of W2G for $2 Denomination: 1 in 67.8323658029029
The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 105.805579872134
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 171.415889649159
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 929.94576422206
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 2566.92952994212
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 11706.7330693945

[DaBurglar]

I'm 100% positive on the machine that used to exist at Trump Taj, a multi line 3/5/10 dream card, the percent frequency for the dream card feature for DDB was the correct 31%. Deuces wild was 58%, JOB was 50%, Bonus poker was something like 43% and TDB was 26% (I think)???? I'm unsure about the TDB but I'm close.

[Tedlark]

Thanks for the props alpax, right back at ya. I'm close to 3.9 million hands now and I just hit 350 daily high game scores here on this site.

I prefer playing the more volatile TDB but when I last played Dream Card at M in Las Vegas it was only offered in DDB but I did manage to nail a dealt royal at the .10 denomination level. Later in the same weekend I had upped it to the .25 denomination level and I was dealt aces without a kicker but managed to draw a few.

I completely understand why some casinos are shy about offering TDB on this game and thanks again for the cudos.

[alpax]

You are very welcome Ted, I'll add on TDB by tomorrow night. I am curious to see how often those W2Gs come by.

[Tedlark]

On some outings at Four Winds they've come in groups but I've never been dealt a royal or AWAK there at the .25 denomination level. I did manage to get dealt 4's with a kicker at that level though while playing 10 play TDB.

I remember billyjoe hitting several royals at $1.00 denomination when he was playing single line but given my style of play I find single line a bit, um, boring. No offense to those who play single line but once 3/5 play came out; I was hooked on multi-line. When 3/5 play first came out around 1996 the original Harrah's boat in Joliet, IL (the one that looked like a paddle wheel) had a bank of 6 and there was usually a line for them. Back then they had 2 hour cruises and players got booted off after 2 hours unless you were a known player and you could stay on the boat for multiple cruises without exiting the boat. I should say that this was not Dream Card but standard fare such as deuces wild, JOB, DDB, etc.

I stopped playing seriously a few months ago because I had reached level 2 diamond with Caesars and I wasn't going to try for Seven Stars. I'll start playing a bit after the first of the year. Harrah's has a promotion right now to start earning tier credits for 2018 but to me this promotion isn't sweet enough for me to partake of it.

Thanks again for the time you put into breaking down these games for all of us here and I'm sure I am not the only one here who appreciates it.

[DaBurglar]

Alpax.... regarding this small but significant "error" of displaying the wrong frequency (in the form of a %) for the occurrence of the dream card feature.....what is the root cause of the problem? Is it simply someone typing the wrong info in the text screen in the help/info section when the game is set up for use on the casino floor?

Also, the actual frequency of occurrence of the dream card (i.e 31% in the case of ddb) is itself a variable that can be set, reset and modified as the casino See's fit, right? I mean, if a casino wanted to have the dream card activated more frequent on ddb they could, if they wanted to, go in and change it from 31 to 35% right? And vice versa, if they wanted to get stingy and turn a 98% game into a lower return (say 95-96%), then they could lower the frequency from 31 to 29 or whatever....right?

The hard coding for the game itself is set, it's just a casino/user input variable for setting the actual dream card frequency triggered when Max coin is selected...otherwise it's just normal video poker when less than 10 coins is bet.

[Vman96]

Alpax.... regarding this small but significant "error" of displaying the wrong frequency (in the form of a %) for the occurrence of the dream card feature.....what is the root cause of the problem? Is it simply someone typing the wrong info in the text screen in the help/info section when the game is set up for use on the casino floor?

Also, the actual frequency of occurrence of the dream card (i.e 31% in the case of ddb) is itself a variable that can be set, reset and modified as the casino See's fit, right? I mean, if a casino wanted to have the dream card activated more frequent on ddb they could, if they wanted to, go in and change it from 31 to 35% right? And vice versa, if they wanted to get stingy and turn a 98% game into a lower return (say 95-96%), then they could lower the frequency from 31 to 29 or whatever....right?

The hard coding for the game itself is set, it's just a casino/user input variable for setting the actual dream card frequency triggered when Max coin is selected...otherwise it's just normal video poker when less than 10 coins is bet.

I assume typos. In the current game of the week, many of the paytables are wrong at max bet in the help screen when I played it on Monday. Someone forgot to adjust the full house/flush/straight payouts when betting the max 7 credits.

[pokerpokerpoker]

I've played a lot if 5Star Dream card in the past 2 years for dollars. Mostly DDB and some TDB, about a 70%/30% split.

I have always played VP for the thrill of a big hand, and DC fits the bill. I would estimate my jackpot frequency as one every 1-1.5 hours for TDB and every 2-3 hours for DDB, again for single hand play. But, the swings are huge in this game. It is nothing to lose $400 in 5 or 10 minutes playing TDB DC. For a solid hour of play, with the speed turned up, I would like to have $1200-$1500. Often, I would have more like $800-$1200 and either go bust or hit a handpay in 30-45 minutes. 250 credit quads, which are a frequent occurrence, just buy you a little time.


TDB, with it's decreased DC percentage and with trips only giving your 10 credits back, magnifies the swings even more. The worst I ever did was -$2000 in maybe 75 minutes.

My home casino, as well as the DC on this site, both give the DC with the highest EV. But, there are still DC machines out there that do give the wrong card. I played one this year in Vegas. For DDB, the glitch I've noted is pairing up say a 7, when the better play is to pair a 4 (for a possible premium quad).

But, my $1 DC play will likely be coming to an end - because of the new tax code. To my understanding, any W2Gs when added to your tax deductions up to $24k (combined) will be taxed. Once you hit the $24k in deductions and W2Gs, you can write off losses. In my case, my deductions are nowhere near $24k.

Alpax, check your inbox at the other board.

[Webman]

I assume typos. In the current game of the week, many of the paytables are wrong at max bet in the help screen when I played it on Monday. Someone forgot to adjust the full house/flush/straight payouts when betting the max 7 credits.

Well, we'll certainly get that corrected. Thanks for noting it.

[Chicagoan]

This post and the comment chain raise a question. How many casinos are adjusting Dream Card frequency, as well as the frequency of other multipliers in other games, and of course Magic Deal frequency? I have seen WILD swings in the freqnency of multipliers and Dream Cards at different casinos. Stack the Deck is unique because the bonus cards are awarded on actual dealt three of a kinds (and other dealt hands) so there is nothing a given casino can do to change the frequency, just the paytables. But as for the other games, I would be interested to know if a given casino is adjusting the frequency because of course that greatly affects the return percentage. Imagine attracting players by raising the Full House pay out to 50, but then sneaking in a 50% decrease in Dream Cards or multipliers.