Thoughts For Beginners

[Tedlark]

Phil in your above post you say that you "will never be convinced that betting any video poker game bigger is better." So looking at this statement logically, along with your admitted betting strategies, wouldn't it be logical for you to bet single coin all the time and not take "pot shots?"

Coin in being the same; wouldn't a player benefit better by playing .05 max coin for a total wager of .25 instead of playing .25 single coin for that same .25 wager? The only difference is when a royal (or AWAK or other premium hand) is hit and for that same .05 denom at max coin would pay $200.00 but at .25 single coin the player would win $62.50?

This is where I have my biggest disconnect with the "cheap strategy." My mantra has always been to play max coin in at a comfortable denomination and not get short changed in the event of a premium hit coming when max coin isn't optimized.

[alpax]

I think Phil might be interested in the following article on Popular Science from February 2004 that can prove that Mr. Dancer is a real person.

I've circled a part where Mr. Dancer expresses that VP is 90% skill as opposed to Phil thinking it is 80% skill.

Online Version

[ukaserex]

For those who are new-ish to VP, let me give a qualifying statement before I opine.

About 20 years ago...wait..1993, so 24 years ago, I found myself in Tunica, MS at the Grand, with plans to visit my brother. I was there to kill time, as I knew he wouldn't be off work for another 5 hours.

It was my first time in a casino, ever. I believe they had just turned up in Biloxi, but I was warned away by my father. Now that I was a grown up, I still felt a little guilty, but what the old man wouldn't know, wouldn't hurt him.

In my first $40 on a $1 VP machine, I honestly got mad, because the darn machine stopped working! The screen said "Call attendant".

Darn right. Stupid machine just ate my 5 bucks and stopped working. I didn't even realize until the attendant told me that I'd won $4k! They took 10% out for MS taxes, even though I didn't live in MS. They said I could file to get them back.

I accepted the 4k, tipped the waitress $60 in dollar coins and ran out of there!

It's a dangerous thing for a 23-24 year old kid to win that fast. I didn't even go see my brother, I went to Vegas.

I was on Fremont Street, and I felt like my beginner's luck had more to do with my ability to know what the odds of winning would be by comparing fraction values. So, I went into the 4 Queens

5 cards showing, and 47 cards not shown. If I had KKJQ10, various suits - I knew there were 2 more K's out of the 47 remaining. I also knew there were 4 Aces and 4 9's. 8 cards vs 2 cards. Odds were better to go with the straight - but I also felt like the KK was a bird in the hand. So, I just kept the hands that paid, but if I'd gotten KQJ1010, I would have discarded one of the 10's.

Well, to me, at the time, $40 was a nice win. I'd put $40 in, and if I got a full house before it ran out, I'd quit.

And I started playing with dollars, not having a clue about bankroll, or variation.

The thing was - by stopping after each full house, I don't know - I did not lose any money. When I was up over 300 bucks, I went to look for food - but a slot host caught me and gave me his card, told me to feel free to get whatever I wanted. Asked me if I was staying in the hotel. You can probably imagine what happened next.

My stay was comped. The man told me I could stay as long as I wanted to! For free! And meals would be free!

This beat the heck out of Tony Roma's! (I had a job working there)

Well, I found what I imagine was a book by Dancer, or some other expert - but it was dated. It was back in the days where you got dealt 10 cards - 5 cards you saw, and the other 5 "behind" them. If you discarded one of your cards, you'd see 1 of the 5 behind them. At least, that's what the book said.

The book also said there was like a 1 in 640,000 ..maybe it was closer to 650k of getting dealt a Royal. I did the math and realized I was much farther ahead than I could expect to be if I kept playing.

I wish I could say I quit then and there!

I got my bankroll up to $11k. I was amazed to learn that try as I might, I couldn't fit all those 100's into one money clip.

Just in case someone asks, they only hold 100 bills.

A very long and exciting story - that I intend to put into writing one day - the amount of sheer discipline it takes to succeed in video poker - NEVER MIND ABOUT THE MATH! - if you don't lack the discipline, you could be an MIT Mathematical wizard - no discipline, you'll go broke.

Does it sound like a kid who stood up his brother and scurried off to Vegas had any kind of discipline? Of course not.

Yeah, long story short - if you're overweight because you like to snack and have tried to lose weight and can't -- (and you know it's got nothing to do with your hormones or the fact that you have no legs and can't walk) -- gambling isn't for you.

If you would rather drink than win money, gambling is not for you.

If you would rather drink while gambling than drinking while watching football - gambling certainly isn't what you should do.

Gambling is for folks who know how to say no and defer their own gratification. You can take it from me. Been there, done that. I even have the old w-2's and what I call an $11,000 jacket to prove it! (non-matching luggage from the IP, too!)

[billryan]

Living in Florida, is it surprising that Phil hasn't met many successful gamblers? He probably hasn't met many professional skiers either. I wonder if he doubts anyone can do that for a living, as well.
This year's Blackjack Ball just finished up. Last Vegas Advisor publisher and man about town Anthony Curtis won the skills competition.

[alpax]

Living in Florida, is it surprising that Phil hasn't met many successful gamblers? He probably hasn't met many professional skiers either. I wonder if he doubts anyone can do that for a living, as well.
This year's Blackjack Ball just finished up. Last Vegas Advisor publisher and man about town Anthony Curtis won the skills competition.

Probably that might be similar to people living in the Midwest who never seen an ocean in their lifetime that believe bass fishing tournaments do not exist in Florida.

Professional gambling, although it is legal activity requires as much transparency as possible in order to be successful. Most people think that no one could beat the house in the long run, and these professionals prefer to have it this way.

Anthony is around these prolific gamblers and picked up a lot from them. It is quite an impressive victory.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=TedLark]Phil in your above post you say that you "will never be convinced that
betting any video poker game bigger is better." So looking at this
statement logically, along with your admitted betting strategies,
wouldn't it be logical for you to bet single coin all the time and not
take "pot shots?"[/quote]Absolutely.   The only reason I take pot shots or switch to max coins after every four coin win is to keep the game exciting.  Let's face it, playing single coin quarters all day is like watching paint dry.[quote=Tedlark]Coin in being the same; wouldn't a player benefit better by playing .05
max coin for a total wager of .25 instead of playing .25 single coin for
that same .25 wager? The only difference is when a royal (or AWAK or
other premium hand) is hit and for that same .05 denom at max coin would
pay $200.00 but at .25 single coin the player would win $62.50?[/quote]Yes, if the odds are the same.  Nickel odds are usually significantly less than quarter odds.  We don't have nickel VP in Florida, but this is the exact situation in Tampa where the single coin dollar odds are better than the max coin quarter odds.[quote=Tedlark]This is where I have my biggest disconnect with the "cheap strategy." My
mantra has always been to play max coin in at a comfortable
denomination and not get short changed in the event of a premium hit
coming when max coin isn't optimized.
[/quote]Playing short coin isn't for everybody.  You must think about all wins the same, even short coin royals.  If you are playing a negative game, the more hands you play the more you lose.  Also the higher your overall wager the more you lose.  Check my math.   I chose round numbers to make things easy.    If you play a 95% VP game the math says you lose an average of 5% with perfect play.  In dollars 500 hands per hour times $5.00 per hand equals $2,500.00 played per hour.  5% of $2,500 is $125.  Giving up the royal bonus usually costs you 1.5% or so.  Playing the same game with short coin means you have increased the house edge to 6.5%.  The math says playing this game with single coin quarters costs you 6.5% of $125 (500 times .25) or $8.13.  Is $8.13 cheaper than $125 to play the same game?  I think so.This is the exact reason Bob Dancer never plays overall negative VP games.  If you are going to play negative games, playing smaller is cheaper.  If there's an error in my math, please let me know.  What it comes down to is "How much is hitting a max coin royal flush worth to you?" 

[billryan]

The simple solution to that is simply not to play a game that pays back 95%.
How bad a game does it have to be to pay something like that?
6-5 JOB exists because stupid people, who don't understand the game, play it. Someone who understands the game and still plays it is beyond stupid. They are an addict.
Only thing that can help them is G.A.

[alpax]

The simple solution to that is simply not to play a game that pays back 95%.
How bad a game does it have to be to pay something like that?
6-5 JOB exists because stupid people, who don't understand the game, play it. Someone who understands the game and still plays it is beyond stupid. They are an addict.
Only thing that can help them is G.A.

We have a winner!

Even to this day Phil tries to sneak in advising people to play the Cheap Strategy compared to saving up and playing on a trip to Peppermill at Reno or SouthPoint at Vegas.

[FloridaPhil]

How silly is this?   I'm not talking about playing single coin as anything more than a way for most VP players in the US to enjoy the game without being fleeced.  Saying I don't think professional gamblers exist because I have never seen one ignores the fact that the games you can play in Vegas DO NOT exist for most of us.  When I make a post or a comment about VP, I am talking to people living outside Nevada and the high limit rooms.I would never play a 95% video poker game in a casino.  The only one I have ever seen was on a cruise ship.  I was so bored on that cruise that I had no choice but to play.  I played it with single coin quarters.  Of course I lost, but it would have been much worse if I had played max coins.I believe there is a point in the odds where playing single coin makes mathematical sense.  Currently, I believe the trigger point is about 98%.  Above that, the cost of a max coin royal flush is worth the cost.  Below that, you are better off playing single coin.  If you want to spice up the game, use CS.Anything can happen in a short period of time.  If you are an occasional player and you are only going to play for a short period of time once in a while, it doesn't matter what the odds are.  Considering single coin or CS is for players that play frequently.  The more hands you play or the more money you risk, the more you will lose on these games.I never said I played single coin or CS all the time.  I only said I made a little money doing it over an extended period of time.   When I go to Miami, Blackhawk or Vegas where the odds are better, I don't use CS, I play max coins.Very few people living in Mississippi or near Cherokee playing quarter VP are going to stop playing lousy games so they can go to Vegas and play only 100% games.  I've been in their shoes and I'm trying to save them some money.  That's all this is about.I laid out the math for you in the above post. If someone on this forum chooses to ignore it, at least you can say I told you so.  If the video poker games you play are less than 98% including comps, you have two choices,,. don't play or play cheaper.  It's up to you.

[FAA]

I didn't even go see my brother, I went to Vegas.---------------------------------------------------------------LV is 1600 miles from Tunica. Pretty impulsive.