How Much of VP is Luck?

[billryan]

   Quit deflecting and show us where the ten percent line comes from, or be a man and admit you made it up to spice up another of your rants.

[FloridaPhil]

OK, let's get down to the Nitty Gritty. I agree with everything Bob Dancer espouses when it comes to playing the best games, playing with computer perfect strategy and maximizing comps.  All of these things will definitely increase your return on these games.  I do not believe these things ever "guarantee" you will be a long term winner.  If you have 50 Bob Dancers in a room, some will win and some will lose.  In infinity they may all win, but we can not play video poker into infinity.   We are human beings with a limited playing time.  Because the RNG is random, chance determines if you win or lose over the span of time you are playing.If you do everything you can to increase your return and you win, there was luck involved.  If you do the same thing and you lost, there was also luck involved.  This does not mean playing VP with the Dancer methodology has no value.  It is extremely valuable, but it won't ever guarantee to make you a long term winner on it's own.If he were here right now, I'm pretty sure Bob would say he never said his strategy would guarantee to make anyone a winner.  It's the veiled suggestion behind the philosophy that I object to.   VP is gambling.  Luck is part of the game.  You can put yourself in position to benefit from luck, but it's always the determining factor.  Betting bigger is gambling bigger, even if the game is positive.Why do I keep bringing this issue up?  Do I have something against Bob Dancer?  Do I have some alternative strategy to promote? Perhaps I want to continue to be the punching bag for all the Dancer supporters on this forum?  Hardly...The problem is many new players only pay attention to the good things and ignore the bad.  They forget Dancer only plays games where he has a mathematical advantage and he's not playing with quarters.  They also ignore the fact that he has access to specific details that you may not have.  I'm sure successful big time VP players are a small close knit community.  Do you think they will share any specific profitable information with you?  For example, back in 2000 Bob discovered a casino was paying too much on a specific VP game and he took advantage of that fact.  Do you think he would have put that information on the radio or announced it over the PA system?  NO Chance!In addition, I'm sure he can play these games 100% perfectly forever even at 70 years old.  I would bet hardly anyone else on this forum could do that at any age.  Add all this up, add in the luck factor as discussed above and what do you have?   The chances that you will make money playing VP long term are slim indeed.  Should you give up?  Heck no.  Just be aware that no VP strategy is guaranteed.  Play the best games as computer perfect as you can.  Play what you can afford to lose and don't put too much faith in something  you have no control over.

[billryan]

So this whole rant is basically bull****,and you made up a Dancer quote because you thought it added weight to your argument?
You are a real piece of work.

[FloridaPhil]

I said what needed to be said.  Others can make up their own mind.  They don't need us to tell them how to play.    Are you arguing there is a VP methodology guaranteed to make someone a long term winner?  I would love to hear it.

[Webman]

Found the following Bob Dancer quote, it if helps further this discussion at all.   

"Any individual betting session may be 90 percent luck, but when you play 500,000 hands a year like I do, it's 90 percent skill."

Source

[billryan]

I said what needed to be said.  Others can make up their own mind.  They don't need us to tell them how to play.    Are you arguing there is a VP methodology guaranteed to make someone a long term winner?  I would love to hear it.




It's bad enough you put words in Dancers mouth. Don't try that nonsense with me. Don't deflect from the fact that you started this thread with bull****.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Bob Dancer]"Any individual betting session may be 90 percent luck, but when you
play 500,000 hands a year like I do, it's 90 percent skill."[/quote]I know I remembered reading that somewhere.  Thanks for the help.  To me what really matters is that players don't believe there is any guaranteed path to winning long term.  Members that only talk about winning are not portraying the game as it really is.  There are NO "can't lose" VP machines or strategies. 

[Webman]

Has anyone claimed such a thing?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=webman]Has anyone claimed such a thing?
[/quote]Some members never discuss losing on this forum, only winning.   In my view this leaves people to assume they are guaranteed to win long term if they follow a certain methodology.  I think this is an important issue to debunk.  If everyone agrees there is no guarantee implied or otherwise, I'm good with what I've stated above and we can leave it at that.I am not saying no one wins long term.  I agree with Bob Dancer when he says very few will and the vast majority won't.  Believing that you will be among the winners is what keeps us playing.   If all things are equal, luck is the thing that will determine if you are a winner or a loser.  The question I asked was, what percentage is luck worth?   This is a very important concept in a game where an advantage can be in fractions of a percent. 

[case]

IF I play a positive game and play perfect, then yes I do expect to win. Of course you will not win all the time but eventually you should be ahead.

VP players that are pros (for lack of a better term) play long term to achieve their EV.