The absurdity of mythical video poker "payback"

[olds442jetaway]

I get exactly what you mean LL. Now if you can just get the casino to give us back what we put into the machine, that will make your statement come entirely true.

[olds442jetaway]

LL...I tried day trading a year or so after I retired. That was more work, more record keeping, and more sleepless nights than when they first shoved IBM think pads down our throats with little to no training. I will always remember this...when they went to computers at work, within 6 months they had to double everyone's file cabinets for all of the extra paper. Being an educator like my Mrs. I bet a similar thing happened to you. I still have an entire room in my house of teacher stuff that she MAY NEED someday. Now I have to relate this to vp somehow....I guess it would be keep it as simple as possible. If you are going to play those high variance games, just do it for a few minutes just in case lightning strikes. If everyone played picture perfect vp on 99 plus machines like BD, vp as an option to play in a casino would not exist IMO.

[FAA]

Well, yes. The esoteric game players keep VP operational for meat and potatoes game players. It's all negative. But they would pull MP VP for slots PDQ.

[olds442jetaway]

FAA...How would you like to play 9/6 job for 6 hours..hit just 2 quads...start with 35 bucks in free play and not add anything of your own money... be up a hundred bucks at some point and cash out 70 bucks still doubling your free play amount.
    I did this today. I am working on a method to do this regularly. However, I don't want to post the details until I have at least ten consecutive successful trips. Hint though. It relies not on hitting quads, but the amount the full house pays which is 9 for one. And yes, it will be some sort of Martingale clone. 2nd trial tomorrow night and 3rd trial Monday morning. Budget will be 200 bucks in startup money. Stay tuned. Going to practice it another hour or so on Wolf vp prior to hitting the hay for the evening.

[Vman96]

FAA...How would you like to play 9/6 job for 6 hours..hit just 2 quads...start with 35 bucks in free play and not add anything of your own money... be up a hundred bucks at some point and cash out 70 bucks still doubling your free play amount.
    I did this today. I am working on a method to do this regularly. However, I don't want to post the details until I have at least ten consecutive successful trips. Hint though. It relies not on hitting quads, but the amount the full house pays which is 9 for one. And yes, it will be some sort of Martingale clone. 2nd trial tomorrow night and 3rd trial Monday morning. Budget will be 200 bucks in startup money. Stay tuned. Going to practice it another hour or so on Wolf vp prior to hitting the hay for the evening.

Best of luck, but please also share with us if it fails disastrously like all Martingale-like systems do from time to time. Depending how extreme the system is, winning 10 trips in a row is feasible. But that horrid losing trip will tend to exceed all those wins.

[billryan]

FAA...How would you like to play 9/6 job for 6 hours..hit just 2 quads...start with 35 bucks in free play and not add anything of your own money... be up a hundred bucks at some point and cash out 70 bucks still doubling your free play amount.
     

Sounds like a typical day at the "office"

[olds442jetaway]

Lets hope the wins will somehow offset the losses except for the hopefully occasional 200 budget bust. This will be a very mild progression. Also if one chooses, you could start at bet 1 and last much longer. Unless I can find a quarter 9/6 800 for bet 1 machine which I can't, I will be starting at bet 5. I will post the failure also if it happens before 10 sessions.

[FAA]

Free Play never seems to leave with me, other than the rare straight or royal flushes derived. I've had two straight trips of -$45. So my mood has lifted. Good 2.5 hours of mileage today. I was mentally steeling myself for an ATM trip, down to my last $4. It yielded a $100 quad. Details may be read on my thread.

[Sea Lion]

[QUOTE=Eduardo] It sounds like you are misinterpreting the 99.5%.That doesn't mean if you bring a million dollars to the casino you will leave with $995,000.It means if you play a million dollars through the machine (winning and losing along the way) you will on average be about $5,000 down at that point. If you walked into the casino with a million dollars, then $5,000 in losses might not be that big of a deal. And hopefully you've earned some nice high roller comps along the way, which makes it worth it to some people.But if you keep playing, you will continue to, on average, lose $5,000 for every million you play through the machine. That's what a less than 100% return means. Keep playing, keep losing. That's why advantage players will tell you not to play machines with less than 100% factoring in free play, comps, etc.If you are trying to recoup losses playing a negative machine, you are setting yourself up for trouble. So only play these machines if the losses and what you gain along the way are worth it to you, or in small amounts. Playing through many millions of dollars just isn't a good idea on low paying machines and it doesn't take a "rigged" machine for the casino to make out just fine on this sort of player.



My losses FAR EXCEED your scenario.

A complete dearth of Royals ****ed me this year. 100,000s of hands, too. I always play ten play.[/QUOTE] 10 play machines are brutal. 95% of the time you will get dealt crap. You are also seeing way more throwaway "burn" hands, and draws that return zero than ever before. This is for all games, not just TDB. A video poker machine is a slot machine. All VP machines have a RNG spinning until you hit the deal button. As soon as that fifth card is dealt the RNG starts spinning again until you hit the draw button. Also, there are software updates that can manipulate that RNG enough as to where it will fly under the radar and pass if inspected by the Gaming Control Board. Today I played the same machine for 4 hours with my players card in and guess what - not one single hand better than 4 -2s,3s,4s. No aces, nothing with a kicker, no RF on 9/6 DDB, Same with 9/7/5 DB, and 8/5 BP. Nothing better than 4- 2s, 3s, 4s. I also suspect that the players card can also trigger the machine to bone you just enough as it would pass if inspected. This is one of the reason I stick with nickels on 10 play. I see way too many people playing quarters, 50 cents, and $1 only to lose their ass within minutes and walk away frustrated. I love10 play, and play them for entertainment value only, knowing that it is almost impossible to walk away with more $$$ than when I started, and set my limit to $200 - $300. This way I'm not kicking and screaming when I do get hosed for that $200.

[Vman96]

^^^ If you really believe these things, why the heck are you even playing!