Can You Keep From Losing?

[FloridaPhil]

Assuming 2500 hands per day, (4 hours at 625 hands/hour), the hand total without a royal comes to 227500.

I think this is well within the realm of possibility. I have gone two years without a royal. For me that's at least a half million hands. When this happens, it's not fun. It's also not profitable even if you are playing positive games. Video poker is gambling. If you live long enough, anything that can happen will happen.

[markinca]

Assuming 2500 hands per day, (4 hours at 625 hands/hour), the hand total without a royal comes to 227500.

I think this is well within the realm of possibility. I have gone two years without a royal. For me that's at least a half million hands. When this happens, it's not fun. It's also not profitable even if you are playing positive games. Video poker is gambling. If you live long enough, anything that can happen will happen.

This is what probabilities are. If you flip a coin, you don't get HTHTHTHTHT alternatively forever. You'll get big streaks of heads, and then tails, and then maybe some HTHTHTs... add all those flips together and it'll be where it should be.

You may have gone half a million hands with no royal, but you've stated yourself you've also had 4 royals come in one day. I'd be willing to bet over your entire lifetime of playing you're more or less where you should be royal-wise.

[FloridaPhil]

I'd be willing to bet over your entire lifetime of playing you're more or less where you should be royal-wise.

You would win that bet. Would I bet $25 a hand that it will remain that way? No. At that amount, any risk is too much for me.

[billryan]

Very few people go to Laughlin for a week. Until the OP clarifies the days, hours and hands played, there is no point in speculation. I didn't hit a RF in all my years of playing in AC.
I doubt I played 40,000 hands in that time.

[Vman96]

How many trips total did you take in those 10+ years? "1-1/12" is confusing. If you made a dozen trips a year for 10+ years and played VP for hours a day, I'm surprised you aren't in the "VP is rigged" camp here. You probably played over a million hands if that's the case. Odds of no royals in a fair game for a million hands is roughly 1 in 72 billion.

How many hands do you think you have played? How many royals have you hit?

When I saw the post, I also tried to estimate how many hands might have been played without a royal.

I took it as 12 or 13 trips over the 10 years, i.e., 1.2-1.3 trips per year. How long is a trip? I assumed 7 days. Thirteen trips at 7 days per trip comes to 91 days. Assuming 2500 hands per day, (4 hours at 625 hands/hour), the hand total without a royal comes to 227500. Certainly not great, but if there's anyone here who plays a lot of video poker and has not had at least one bad streak like that, I'd be surprised.

It's definitely not fun when it happens.

Yeah if he meant 12 to 13 trips total in ten years, it's unlikely, but still will happen every once in awhile.

[stevel96a1]

just got back from ac, the 300$ i won previous, i poured back in, mean while the guy next to me playing double double bonus aces and faces wins 400$ clear in 6hr, i had the option to leave a net 68$ winner but nooo i did not come 2.5hr each way for that. instead i gambles 300$ away the point is don't gamble without an edge so with that said FPDW in t minus 4 days

in the mean time no more 99.25 or 99.54 games for me, i truly do believe there is a betting structure out there that can withstand the houses edge it could be wishful thinking or undiscovered mathematics
until then wolf poker and winpoker will be my Laboratory/Kitchen table if it can succeed there it should have no problem in the arena, the real issue i am having are the downswings of 8-12k of credits seems somewhat common in simulations and what adds more damage it continues swing deeper down

[olds442jetaway]

My mom always told me.....your life can change in 2 shakes of a lambs tail. The best we all can do is to go on, be respectful and caring to others, and watch your p's and q's. My mom was one very smart lady and is greatly missed. What was left of her family survived the civil war, World War 1, and World War 2. Nobody in the family served in the Korean War which is another nearly forgotten one. Her children somehow survived Viet Nam and are still here today to hopefully carry on and do good in her absence. I'm just emphasizing what OttaBill just said and what Florida Phil has been recently been posting about. Now, if anyone remembers quote 2 shakes of a lambs tail, you are older than me.

[FloridaPhil]

in the mean time no more 99.25 or 99.54 games for me, i truly do believe there is a betting structure out there that can withstand the houses edge it could be wishful thinking or undiscovered mathematics until then wolf poker and winpoker will be my Laboratory/Kitchen table if it can succeed there it should have no problem in the arena, the real issue i am having are the downswings of 8-12k of credits seems somewhat common in simulations and what adds more damage it continues swing deeper down

I am not on this forum to be controversial, although it often ends up that way. You have discovered what many of us already know. All the computer simulations in the world can not predict what will happen when you are one on one with the machine. Everyone is playing "short term". This isn't only VP, it's everything you do in life. Like in VP, life will throw you a curve once in a while. Some curves are minor, some are devastating. If you recover from the worst of them, you live to fight another day. If you don't, your time is up.

I believe the best way to play VP is to assume the worst and be surprised if you discover you were wrong. If you do this you will have no regrets. You will enjoy the game as it was intended to be and not be consumed with bankrolls, losses, alleged rigged machines and long term results. Video poker is pure gambling. The outcome is totally unpredictable. There is no bluffing your opponent in VP. If you hit the deal button and lose, the cards fell against you. If you won, you were fortunate. It's as simple as that.

P.S. I remember two shakes of a lambs tail. That is pretty old stuff...

[onemoretry]

i truly do believe there is a betting structure out there that can withstand the houses edge it could be wishful thinking or undiscovered mathematics

My vote is for wishful thinking.

[Tedlark]

I do not believe video poker to be pure gambling, as Phil does. Nor do I believe that a video poker player is to assume the worst and being surprised if they were wrong.