Why VP Bet Switching is Unprofitable

[FloridaPhil]

I created this post so other forum members might benefit from my experience. I do not claim to be a video poker expert. I do not claim to be able to beat the casinos. What I do claim, is to have 15 year's experience with VP bet incrementing strategies.

With these strategies, a player starts out with a small bet and increments the bet based on the flow of the game. Some players bet bigger when they are winning believing they are playing with the casino's money. Some players bet bigger when they are losing, believing a lull in the action means a better hand is coming. It is a great thrill to bet small, increase your bet and find yourself cashing in on a big jackpot.

All of these strategies are long term losers. What do I mean by this statement? If your goal is to hit big jackpots at any cost, they perform this function. If you were to play this way once, win big and never play VP again, you could claim to be a long term winner. All VP strategies work until they don't.

The problem with these strategies is you inevitably hit more of your jackpots at the smaller bets than the bigger bets. The non paying hands you play with the bigger bets eat up your profits faster than rare big bet jackpots can happen.

A lot of players criticized CS for this very reason. What they missed was CS was not created as a profit making strategy. It was created to allow a player on a budget to play more hands with less money. It's primary function was to limit coin-in, a proven way to reduce the cost to play negative games. Experts pointed out it was better to play single coin all the time instead of switching bets. They were right. The problem is no one wants to play single coin quarter VP all day unless there is some chance of hitting a max coin jackpot. CS allowed from this possibility at a cost. Because most of the hands were played for a quarter, the cost was minimal. I am not making this post to defend CS. I don't use it any more. Not because I think other's shouldn't. I want to be paid $1,000 for a royal flush instead of $62.50. You should too.

What is the most profitable way to play VP over time? Here is where the experts have it right. Playing net positive games accurately will give you the best chance of making a profit. Find a game that you enjoy. Play at a denomination you are comfortable with. Play as many coins as it takes to earn the royal bonus. Play as accurate as possible and stick with it. Most of us don't have positive VP games to play. Does this mean we are all losers? Yes and No. It means the more hands you play and the bigger your bets, the more it costs you to play them. If you can enjoy the casino experience at a reasonable cost, I call that a win.

I play negative VP games. Those are the games I have to play at the denomination I am most comfortable with. I play them small enough to limit my losses and big enough to get the casino to give me the "free stuff" I want. At the present time, my net cost to play about 300,000 hands of video poker averages less than $5,000 a year. Add in all the comped mini vacations we take together and the fun we get from the game and you have an enjoyable couples hobby for a cost much less than many other leisure activities.

Over the years we have tried every possible VP strategy you can think of and some you may not have thought of yet. We can tell you playing like the experts teach is the most effective. Playing quarter VP is a bargain. This is especially true with the new tax codes. There is a cost to play these games. You won't see the hand pay lady. You won't ever buy a new car off your profits You may be able to afford one since you're not giving your money to the casino in stacks of hundreds.

Before you respond to this post, know that I am not talking about playing positive VP in Vegas or anywhere else. I am not talking to Michael Jordan or Jerry Jones. I am talking to people who think tens of thousands of dollars is a lot of money to lose in a casino.

The casino has a huge advantage that we hardly ever talk about on this forum. They never run out of money. They can afford to wait out all your lucky spells so they can kill you in the down turns. If you have as much money as a casino and can wait them out, you may be able to beat them. For the majority of us, that's not a realistic goal.

[Tedlark]

I guess I'll be Phil's first pigeon. Phil, what, if any, new information did you post here that you haven't brought up in any of the last 10 forum posts that you've started?

[billryan]

Really. This is ridiculous. Phil keeps saying he is done promoting nonsense. Webcam tells him to keep his buckshot in a single thread so Phil decides to start a new thread, to educate people about his incredible lack of skill.

Has anyone been watching Vikings? I liked the show in the past but not crazy about this season. Has it too, jumped the shark?

[FloridaPhil]

Everyone on this website is an expert at something. For a tiny few, it's beating the casinos. I am an expert on what not to do when playing VP. I have tried it all. Bet incrementing strategies can not make negative VP games profitable, they do the opposite. It seems even when I agree with the experts I am wrong. What is it in this post that bother's you or is it that it has my name on it?

[FAA]

Always helpful news, regardless of its frequency. Hope to stay solvent. Pure frustration, that $250 RF last summer.

[billryan]

Everyone on this website is an expert at something. For a tiny few, it's beating the casinos. I am an expert on what not to do when playing VP. I have tried it all. Bet incrementing strategies can not make negative VP games profitable, they do the opposite. It seems even when I agree with the experts I am wrong. What is it in this post that bother's you or is it that it has my name on it?

What is there that you haven't already said a dozen different times in a dozen differnt threads.
The Chinese say repeating the same thing over and over hoping for different results is a form of mental madness. I'm inclined to agree.

[FloridaPhil]

Sometimes I wonder if the purpose of this forum is to promote casino profits? How about a few tips for those who play negative VP games? Am I the only one on the planet who does? News Flash!! Practically everyone does. News flash number two.... Wait for it... Wait for it.. Here it comes... Almost no one makes a profit playing VP! I know it's hard to read those words, but you can do it if you try.

The best way to keep from losing money in a casino is to not go in. If you are going to, at least don't do something that costs you a new Mercedes each year. If that's repeating myself, it's something that needs to be said more than once.

You can enjoy playing VP without emptying out your bank account. The experts know. They won't talk about it here because the casinos don't like it. The casinos want you to believe they can be beat. They want you to believe betting bigger is better. It's better for them, not you.

If you go to the casino, play the best game you can find as accurately as you can as small as you can stand. Take up a seat. Enjoy the day without dreaming of beating the casino or signing a W-2G form. If you lose, you can shrug it off and come back another day. If you have more money than you need, give it to someone who needs it. The casinos don't.

[onemoretry]

They won't talk about it here because the casinos don't like it.

Another bit of nonsense from FP.

[Webman]

Closing topic on account of the repetition of previous things already discussed many times in other threads. There are some interesting points here, but they are already available in numerous other topics.

Also, I'm still not sure why you're under the impression that the only topic discussed around here is advantage play.

If you view the Active Topics list, of the 20 most recently discussed topics across the forum, only one actually pertains to advantage play.